The Official 2014 Fall Discussion Thread

[FallsLake]

That's a lot of low dew points for November 11th:

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=11&model_dd=06&model_init_hh=06&fhour=192&parameter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

[Bevo]

The El Nino is strengthening...there's no doubt about that.  So, I don't know where you're getting that it's failed.  Why are you even looking at the GFS anymore?  It's awful in the medium to long range.  It hasn't even been matching it's parallel run after 120 hours.  The Euro looks a lot better in the medium to long range if you're going to try and possibly sneak a wintry precip chance (mainly north of the folks in the SE forum).  Sure, it isn't as cold, but looks good for at least a few shots at rain with a WSW or SW flow across the Deep South.  

 

jsheltey is the Eeyore of the forums. You get used to it.

[mackerel_sky]

Another dry fropa! #drought!

[franklin NCwx]

The 6z GFS says the SE stays dry for at least 2 more weeks. This El Nino has failed.

it's raining today.

[packbacker]

jsheltey is the Eeyore of the forums. You get used to it.

I want it wet from mid-Dec to mid-Feb. The Nino will pay us back.

[WidreMann]

The El Nino is strengthening...there's no doubt about that.  So, I don't know where you're getting that it's failed.  Why are you even looking at the GFS anymore?  It's awful in the medium to long range.  It hasn't even been matching it's parallel run after 120 hours.  The Euro looks a lot better in the medium to long range if you're going to try and possibly sneak a wintry precip chance (mainly north of the folks in the SE forum).  Sure, it isn't as cold, but looks good for at least a few shots at rain with a WSW or SW flow across the Deep South.

All the same, it has been rather dry for the past month or so, and even the Euro keeps us fairly dry through 10 days, with only one other storm likely to affect is in a way that could produce more than token precip.

So yeah, where's the Nino wetness? I've seen wetter La Nina falls than this one. Seriously.

[DaculaWeather]

Allan Huffman @RaleighWx

IT is early (mid November), but we need to watch overrunning potential around 11/14-15 for mid-Atlantic. SW flow aloft over arctic front.

[RaleighWx]

 

Allan Huffman @RaleighWx

IT is early (mid November), but we need to watch overrunning potential around 11/14-15 for mid-Atlantic. SW flow aloft over arctic front.

 

 

Thanks. Yep, the signal is undeniable on the models. The fact it is early calls for some conservatism, but the synoptic setup if true is very interesting. Anomalous arctic high with overruning can produce wintry weather as early as mid-november. I attached the 00z GGEM sleet/freezing rain forecasts.

[FallsLake]

Thanks. Yep, the signal is undeniable on the models. The fact it is early calls for some conservatism, but the synoptic setup if true is very interesting. Anomalous arctic high with overruning can produce wintry weather as early as mid-november. I attached the 00z GGEM sleet/freezing rain forecasts.

Plenty of dry/cold air to tap to make this a possibility:

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=11&model_dd=06&model_init_hh=06&fhour=216&parameter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

[Hvward]

All the same, it has been rather dry for the past month or so, and even the Euro keeps us fairly dry through 10 days, with only one other storm likely to affect is in a way that could produce more than token precip.

So yeah, where's the Nino wetness? I've seen wetter La Nina falls than this one. Seriously.

 

Here is WildreMann in winter..  Same comments different year.  

 

 

 

Come on guys the pattern looks favorable, just because the models aren't showing a large storm currently doesn't mean the potential isn't there.  The doom and gloom is pretty lame.

[FallsLake]

It is possible to get wintery precip in mid November:

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20001119/

[southernskimmer]

^ I hope this winter mirrors 2000'

[Kory]

Here is WildreMann in winter.. Same comments different year.

Come on guys the pattern looks favorable, just because the models aren't showing a large storm currently doesn't mean the potential isn't there. The doom and gloom is pretty lame.

Especially when you have a SW flow over most of the SE part of the country. Models sometimes can't pick up on little disturbances riding that SW flow until just a few days before. But the SW flow is key...not to mention another EPAC tropical distance that will provide moisture.

[Cold Rain]

Are we really seeing this much negativity at the beginning of November? Starts earlier every year, I guess. Good grief.

[frazdaddy]

It is possible to get wintery precip in mid November:

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20001119/

Yepp , that little blue 3 inch spot in Chatham county was right on top of my house

[downeastnc]

Are we really seeing this much negativity at the beginning of November? Starts earlier every year, I guess. Good grief.

 

Widremann has been this way since I started posting on Eastern back in 2005 or so ( and for those who have been here longer I am sure he was like that way before I came along), he is practically a institution on to himself and no SE snowstrom thread is complete without Widremann coming in an poo pooing on the parade. The rest of these debbie downers are just posers who wish they had it like Widremann does....

 

I have the next 10 days off from work, I am loving the cold signal for next week, if reminds me of how 2009-2010 flipped to winter only it is 2 weeks sooner......

[Brick Tamland]

jsheltey is the Eeyore of the forums. You get used to it.

 

I thought that was Widre.

 

Anyway, another member of the Legion of Gloom.

[Brick Tamland]

Thanks. Yep, the signal is undeniable on the models. The fact it is early calls for some conservatism, but the synoptic setup if true is very interesting. Anomalous arctic high with overruning can produce wintry weather as early as mid-november. I attached the 00z GGEM sleet/freezing rain forecasts.

 

Great to see you post. Hope you come in more during the winter. Looks like there might be a lot to post about.

[mackerel_sky]

This looks to be a cold blast that stops in W TN, AR and areas NW from there and they get sleet and zr, while ATL and E of there are in the 50s/60s, the front gets hung up/stopped by the SW flow, never makes it over apps

[Cold Rain]

Widremann has been this way since I started posting on Eastern back in 2005 or so ( and for those who have been here longer I am sure he was like that way before I came along), he is practically a institution on to himself and no SE snowstrom thread is complete without Widremann coming in an poo pooing on the parade. The rest of these debbie downers are just posers who wish they had it like Widremann does....

I have the next 10 days off from work, I am loving the cold signal for next week, if reminds me of how 2009-2010 flipped to winter only it is 2 weeks sooner......

Widre is fine. It's just that there's a lot of this from a lot of sources already. It feels a little early yet.

[drfranklin]

This looks to be a cold blast that stops in W TN, AR and areas NW from there and they get sleet and zr, while ATL and E of there are in the 50s/60s, the front gets hung up/stopped by the SW flow, never makes it over apps

Isn't there CAD potential in the LR?

[FallsLake]

There is definitely potential 12z GFS at hour 204:

 

[FallsLake]

WOW!

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=228ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_228_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141106+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

[jshetley]

We need that mass of rain in the gulf to come up. Then we would be in business.

[Brick Tamland]

The 10 day storms are showing up early this winter. Or is it late this fall?

[downeastnc]

Widre is fine. It's just that there's a lot of this from a lot of sources already. It feels a little early yet.

 

Tell that to the models lol they running some pretty outrageous stuff for November which is fueling all this stuff, climo strongly suggest snow is unlikely but hell who would EVER think that the midlands of SC could get 3-5" on Dec 1st much less Nov 1st. Bozart said one time that some years it just wants to snow and it seems this is gonna be one of those years.

[RaleighWx]

This was the snowfall forecast from the overruning event from todays 12z GFS.. The 27km hi res snow

[Brick Tamland]

This was the snowfall forecast from the overruning event from todays 12z GFS.. The 27km hi res snow

 

 That 3 to 4 inch mark is right at Wake Forest.   

[RaleighWx]

Upgraded GFS has it too. Will have the high res 13km snow map in a bit.

[FallsLake]

Upgraded GFS has it too. Will have the high res 13km snow map in a bit.

I think with amount of cold air coming this is a definitely more than just fantasy. I would even say, as the time get closer the models may start showing something a little more widespread.