Met1985 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Lol at the banter today in here. No need in really arguing about it because mother nature couldn't give to cents what we want her to do. We will just ride it out anyway. We will have some milder periods in winter and be up and down here and there. No big deal we will get our snow I do believe. Shoot some of us already did on the 1st of this month. May all have a great winter and just relax. The upcoming pattern is very interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Lol at the banter today in here. No need in really arguing about it because mother nature couldn't give to cents what we want her to do. We will just ride it out anyway. We will have some milder periods in winter and be up and down here and there. No big deal we will get our snow I do believe. Shoot some of us already did on the 1st of this month. May all have a great winter and just relax. The upcoming pattern is very interesting to say the least. Speaking of Banter. Can someone explain why Raleigh has it's own pinned section? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Speaking of Banter. Can someone explain why Raleigh has it's own pinned section? He is a well known and well respected Met on here and it is a winter outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 He is a well known and well respected Met on here and it is a winter outlook. Hey My thread was pinned this weekend. Thanks for the answer, was just curious. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Wow, I came home and saw four new pages of discussion on this thread and thought something big must have come up on the models. What a nice surprise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 The 18z GFS keeps most of the cold in the northern tier of the country. The cold that is showing up in the country is very impressive for this time of the year. Will be nice to see some snowpack being laid down up in Canada just were we need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Nobody look at the 18z GFS. save yourself while you still can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Nobody look at the 18z GFS. save yourself while you still can. Looks very El Niño ish with an active STJ. Not a bad look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Very good look indeed. Something to follow at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Looks very El Niño ish with an active STJ. Not a bad look.We're getting to that point in the year when it starts kicking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 GFS Parallel 18Z doesn't look too bad at all ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Link pcbjr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Link pcbjr? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/ Best I can suggest without a paid site, and I can't link those here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Should I go ahead and start the thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Should I go ahead and start the thread? Lord help this board and save the cliff divers in the upcoming weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 So, we have BOTH the GFS and the EURO with a storm system in the NOV 13-15 range. Big-time CAD signature on the EURO. Not so much on the GFS. Buckle up, baby! Here come the mood swings! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 While we're posting things....Here's the 18z GFS snow accumulations at hour 216: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=11&model_dd=05&model_init_hh=18&fhour=216¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 While we're posting things....Here's the 18z GFS snow accumulations at hour 216: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=11&model_dd=05&model_init_hh=18&fhour=216¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false And it really doesn't dissipate .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Sweet looking pattern on the euro ensembles with a split flow look. El Nino winter here we come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Lord help this board and save the cliff divers in the upcoming weeks! Well right off the bat we know this is out lunch - shows rain for Gaffney/ Rock Hill and snow for western upstate. THAT would never happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Winter is going to be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 I see the 0z GFS is still looking very cold, don't know about precip! Edit: I may have to stay up for the Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Definitely good overrunning potential day 8-10. Amazing amount of cold available already this early in the late fall/winter. Pretty classical CAD scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Looks like the 00z GFS still has our fantasy storm, although it's a storm for the fishes. It's cold enough, though. We've got this one right where we want it. The GFS suppression bias is at work, per usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Looks like the 00z GFS still has our fantasy storm, although it's a storm for the fishes. It's cold enough, though. We've got this one right where we want it. The GFS suppression bias is at work, per usual. Was just about to post the samething. If anything maybe not quite as cold but that would be nitpicking to the max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 I know most are now focused on the potential system at day 8/9 but I wanted to post day 4(6z GFS) to show you a great pattern for building Canadian snow cover: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=096ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_096_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141106+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 The 6z GFS says the SE stays dry for at least 2 more weeks. This El Nino has failed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Just starting to think this cold blast will not make it to the SE. These super cold air masses seem to get stuck in the N plains for whatever reason and filter down to TX and AR, more times than not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 The 6z GFS says the SE stays dry for at least 2 more weeks. This El Nino has failed. The El Nino is strengthening...there's no doubt about that. So, I don't know where you're getting that it's failed. Why are you even looking at the GFS anymore? It's awful in the medium to long range. It hasn't even been matching it's parallel run after 120 hours. The Euro looks a lot better in the medium to long range if you're going to try and possibly sneak a wintry precip chance (mainly north of the folks in the SE forum). Sure, it isn't as cold, but looks good for at least a few shots at rain with a WSW or SW flow across the Deep South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Just starting to think this cold blast will not make it to the SE. These super cold air masses seem to get stuck in the N plains for whatever reason and filter down to TX and AR, more times than not I think it makes it but will not be a direct hit. More of a bleeding in. Might be a lot of 40s for highs and 20s for lows instead of 30s and teens. **This would also be better for any potential winter event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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