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The Official 2014 Fall Discussion Thread

jburns

By jburns,
in Southeastern States

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

I think people, including myself, have a hard time imagining 4 months of a "good pattern", with the assumptions the pattern relaxes and reloads during those that time.  Let's face it, the last time we had a cold Nov and a cold rest of the winter Dec-Feb was 2002 and before that it was back in the 1970's.  It's just not that frequent of occurrence as it's only happened once in the past 30 years.

 

 See below. These are only the analog winters for the current ENSO. Note how top heavy are the cold winters (in blue) after normal to cold Nov,'s as opposed to warm. The historical stats facts say that cold winters have much more often followed the cold Nov analogs (those near the top of the list) than after warm Nov. analogs (bottom of the list). In other words, there is much more blue on top of this list. I don't know how this correlation could be made more clearly.

 

Note: these are for KATL.

 

Year/Nov. mean/Winter

1976/44.2/cold 1.0"

1911/47.0/cold 5.2" & a major ZR

1880/47.3/cold ~6.0"

1951/47.5/warm 3.9"

1923/49.8/norm 4.0"

1969/50.1/cold 0.6"

1968/50.1/cold 2.2"

1936/50.1/warm 0.0"

1939/50.2/cold 8.3" & a major ZR

1885/50.5/cold little SN/IP but a moderate ZR

2002/50.9/norm T & a moderate ZR

1884/51.3/cold ~11" & a major ZR

1963/51.5/cold 3.6"

1904/51.6/cold 1.0", 2 major ZR's, & 1 moderate ZR ,

1929/51.8/warm 5.1"

1914/52.4/cold 1.4"

1895/52.4/norm 0.2"

1953/52.7/warm 0.1"

1952/52.8/warm 1.3"

1900/52.8/norm 4.4"

2006/53.8/warm 0.1"

1935/53.8/cold 10.9" & 2 major ZR's

1979/54.3/norm 4.4"

1977/54.3/cold 0.3"

1913/54.8/norm 4.4"

1927/55.7/norm 0.2"

1919/55.7/norm 0.1"

2004/56.4/warm 0.5" & a major ZR

1990/56.5/warm 2.1"

1958/56.5/norm 2.4"

2003/57.6/norm 2.5"

1986/57.9/norm 4.8"

1994/58.3/warm 0.4"

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
Posted

 See below. These are only the analog winters for the current ENSO. Note how top heavy are the cold winters (in blue) after normal to cold Nov,'s as opposed to warm. The historical stats facts say that cold winters have much more often followed the cold Nov analogs (those near the top of the list) than after warm Nov. analogs (bottom of the list). In other words, there is much more blue on top of this list. I don't know how this correlation could be made more clearly.

 

Year/Nov. mean/Winter

1976/44.2/cold 1.0"

1911/47.0/cold 5.2" & a major ZR

1880/47.3/cold ~6.0"

1951/47.5/warm 3.9"

1923/49.8/norm 4.0"

1969/50.1/cold 0.6"

1968/50.1/cold 2.2"

1936/50.1/warm 0.0"

1939/50.2/cold 8.3" & a major ZR

1885/50.5/cold little SN/IP but a moderate ZR

2002/50.9/norm T & a moderate ZR

1884/51.3/cold ~11" & a major ZR

1963/51.5/cold 3.6"

1904/51.6/cold 1.0", 2 major ZR's, & 1 moderate ZR ,

1929/51.8/warm 5.1"

1914/52.4/cold 1.4"

1895/52.4/norm 0.2"

1953/52.7/warm 0.1"

1952/52.8/warm 1.3"

1900/52.8/norm 4.4"

2006/53.8/warm 0.1"

1935/53.8/cold 10.9" & 2 major ZR's

1979/54.3/norm 4.4"

1977/54.3/cold 0.3"

1913/54.8/norm 4.4"

1927/55.7/norm 0.2"

1919/55.7/norm 0.1"

2004/56.4/warm 0.5" & a major ZR

1990/56.5/warm 2.1"

1958/56.5/norm 2.4"

2003/57.6/norm 2.5"

1986/57.9/norm 4.8"

1994/58.3/warm 0.4"

Larry,  I love your stats but one city doesn't provide enough of a sample size to make any reasonable conclusions. 

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

 See below. These are only the analog winters for the current ENSO. Note how top heavy are the cold winters (in blue) after normal to cold Nov,'s as opposed to warm. The historical stats facts say that cold winters have much more often followed the cold Nov analogs (those near the top of the list) than after warm Nov. analogs (bottom of the list). In other words, there is much more blue on top of this list.

 

Year/Nov. mean/Winter

1976/44.2/cold 1.0"

1911/47.0/cold 5.2" & a major ZR

1880/47.3/cold ~6.0"

1951/47.5/warm 3.9"

1923/49.8/norm 4.0"

1969/50.1/cold 0.6"

1968/50.1/cold 2.2"

1936/50.1/warm 0.0"

1939/50.2/cold 8.3" & a major ZR

1885/50.5/cold little SN/IP but a moderate ZR

2002/50.9/norm T & a moderate ZR

1884/51.3/cold ~11" & a major ZR

1963/51.5/cold 3.6"

1904/51.6/cold 1.0", 2 major ZR's, & 1 moderate ZR ,

1929/51.8/warm 5.1"

1914/52.4/cold 1.4"

1895/52.4/norm 0.2"

1953/52.7/warm 0.1"

1952/52.8/warm 1.3"

1900/52.8/norm 4.4"

2006/53.8/warm 0.1"

1935/53.8/cold 10.9" & 2 major ZR's

1979/54.3/norm 4.4"

1977/54.3/cold 0.3"

1913/54.8/norm 4.4"

1927/55.7/norm 0.2"

1919/55.7/norm 0.1"

2004/56.4/warm 0.5" & a major ZR

1990/56.5/warm 2.1"

1958/56.5/norm 2.4"

2003/57.6/norm 2.5"

1986/57.9/norm 4.8"

1994/58.3/warm 0.4"

 

Just shows how rare an occurrence this will be, if it does occur.  Look at those dates, only one that is recent is 2002, then you have to go back 40 years to get to the second occurrence.  6 of the top 10 cold Novembers that went on to have cold winters occurred over 100 years ago.  So essentially, in my lifetime, this has only occurred once.

 

Now, I am not saying it won't occur, things are aligned for this to occur, if it does we better enjoy it, it might be awhile for see something like this again.

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Kory

Kory

Posted
Posted

Meteorological winter is still nearly a month away.  Astronomical winter is nearly 2 months away...y'all need to quit worrying yourselves.  Mother nature is going to do what mother nature is going to...regardless of what happened in the past or what the current set up is.  I like taking the pattern week by week...looks cold next week.  

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jshetley

jshetley

Posted
Posted

It's been 3 weeks since we got the 1.25 of rain here and then you have to go back into early August to find another good rain event here where I am. And oddly enough much of the county I live in is even drier than this. And I just looked at the GFS total through the end of its run and it's still dry for the most part all the way through.It's true we are in no drought now, but will be before long if this continues. This pattern almost has a LaNina look for the SE.

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Marion_NC_WX

Marion_NC_WX

Posted
Posted

FWIW,  The experimental GFS hinted at off-shore low pressure development at the end of the run...the clown maps even painted a trace of snow for SE North Carolina at the end...

 

I know its way too far out there but could there really be a November snow event for someone in the Southeast US? (and not just the Apps)

 

Day 8...

gfs_pr6_slp_t850_conus2_33.png

Day 9...

gfs_pr6_slp_t850_conus2_37.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Day 9 1/2

gfs_pr6_slp_t850_conus2_39.png

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frazdaddy

frazdaddy

Posted
Posted

There have been plenty of other positive scientific indicators given by actual mets as to why this looks like a big winter for the entire southeast. Maybe you should read the threads by them on here that are pinned instead of just being pessimistic for the sake of it when there is a lot more evidence that this winter will be good for snow around here. 

 

I would suggest starting here.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44777-raleighwx-winter-forecast-2014-15/

That is the best post I've seen you make. Well said sir.

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packfan98

packfan98

Posted
Posted

I want a cold and snowy winter like everyone else.  I think the odds are in our favor for a colder and possibly snowier winter than normal.  That said I don't believe Gawx's stats about November reinforce the idea that this winter will be colder and snowier than normal.  There are too many if's and variables that I have laid out a few times in the past hour or so regarding his conclusions.

 

I think we all want the same result.  Statistically speaking, with so many variables to consider, it would be impossible to find an analog year that matches all of the current conditions exactly like they are today.  The best we can do is look for similarities and correlations.  This is what all of the mets are doing with their seasonal forecasts.  Sometimes they bust, but the overwhelming signs point to higher probabilities of colder and snowier in the SE.  Now let's just see what happens!

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calculus1

calculus1

Posted
Posted

Meteorological winter is still nearly a month away.  Astronomical winter is nearly 2 months away...y'all need to quit worrying yourselves.  Mother nature is going to do what mother nature is going to...regardless of what happened in the past or what the current set up is.  I like taking the pattern week by week...looks cold next week.  

 

Agree.  Agree. Agree.

 

Brick is dropping some seriously good posts in here today.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

I think I understand why you're struggling with M's skepticism. You seem to be confusing assumption with factual evidence.

 

You do realize that - while productive and very helpful - using analogs is still pretty much "assumption" at the end of the day, right? We are assuming that if "this" and "this" occur, then "that" and "those" should be the outcome.

 

So the science of what has happened in the past isn't evidence?

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

I'm not sure Larry has said that certain things cause the winter to be cold. What I have understood him to say is that certain things (that he has tediously shown, mind you) correlate to a cold winter.

So the whole "correlation does not equal causation" argument is a straw man.

I have enjoyed reading all of the cold winter forecasts and presented data for this winter. If anyone is forecasting warmth, I hope it is based upon the best science that is available. If it is, then it should be given due attention and respect.

Picking apart data (or a position based on scientific evidence) with no counter evidence to support that position seems like trolling.

 

I bet several members of the Euro ENS show snow for RDU at the 12z run, LOL.  Per WB snow, which I know is questionable.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Not sure what the GFS showed but the new GFS is showing this at around the same time frame...

 

 

I do think there's potential during this time period. The models have been trending colder so maybe we can get something to come together. The above GFS depiction is actually perfect for this many days out. Cold air pushing in and a system developing off the coast.     

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