The Official 2014 Fall Discussion Thread

[Brick Tamland]

its too early for this pattern to help us like we would want. That's too bad.

 

 

If we are getting " January " cold in Nov, can't we get January snow in Nov? It doesn't matter what time of year it is, if the patterns cold enough, it can still produce

 

 

That's only if the pattern doesn't repeat. I think we got so badly burned in 2011 that it's tough to take a lot of this seriously....but what we know is that patterns have a tendency to repeat. If we can get a -AO and -NAO started early this year and it repeats then we will be in serious business. Now add in some serious +PNA and you have a recipe for a great winter especially for your neck of the woods. Time will tell what happens but I find it hard not to be excited. 

 

Yeah, who says this can't happen again later on in winter? Just because it is happening now doesn't mean it won;t happen again. Now is just a bonus because it's November.

[GaWx]

That's only if the pattern doesn't repeat. I think we got so badly burned in 2011 that it's tough to take a lot of this seriously....but what we know is that patterns have a tendency to repeat. If we can get a -AO and -NAO started early this year and it repeats then we will be in serious business. Now add in some serious +PNA and you have a recipe for a great winter especially for your neck of the woods. Time will tell what happens but I find it hard not to be excited.

Folks,

This is very well said by Burger. As my November list clearly showed, colder weakish Niño Novembers have tended to correlate pretty well with colder winters. Combining a not warm November with a very likely solid +PDO (based on current solid +PDO), likely strong -AO (based on the 2nd highest SAI to 1976 when going back to 1973, strong -OPI, and strong October -AO), 2nd highest SCE going back to the late 60's, and a very likely weakish El Niño (with it following a several year long dominant -ENSO period, if anything, helping even more), I will be shocked if this winter isn't cold. Also, cold SE winters do, as one would expect, mean a good bit above average chance for solidly above normal wintry precip. in much of the SE. This wintry precip. potential is helped IMO by the warm October Niño analogs at least for N GA and much of the main CAD areas.

I feel that about the only thing that has a reasonable chance to hurt good wintry precip. amounts in much of the inland SE (especially in the ATL and nearby CAD areas) would be a winter that is extremely cold with NW flow being too dominant like was the case in 1977-8, 1976-7, and 1969-70. However, the warm October analogs of 1884-5, 1911-2, 1939-40, and 1963-4 that were quite wintry in ATL and most nearby areas would argue that that chance is small. Regardless, IF that were to occur, watch out for the possibility of a very freak far south/coastal SE winter storm in case a very far SE Miller A storm occurs. 1976-7 had a couple of freaky far south snows, including one that gave Homestead and parts of the Bahamas snow flurries in middle Jan just to give an idea of the most extreme scenario that has actually occurred.

 Some may think I'm overhyping like a JB type. However, you can see I'm backing my thoughts (and have been) with concrete support from several angles. Also, I think that most people here who have followed my posts for several years would realize that I don't overhype like JB sometimes does. Constructive criticism based on actual facts is always welcomed.

 

 By the way, Larry Cosgrove's very cold November, which was predicted before the models shifted from a rather mild first half of November (following the first couple of days of cold), is suddenly looking more and more realistic. Also, I have been saying for a couple of months that JB's very cold winter outlook is actually reasonable this time. Keep in mind that I've been very critical of him at times in the past for being cold biased.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

its too early for this pattern to help us like we would want. That's too bad.

heck, we've had snow in April before. I dont see why we can't get snow in November .

[LithiaWx]

Ok guys, mark my words.  A great pattern can only last so long before it eventually flips the opposite direction, usually with the same ferocity as the original extreme, just the polar opposite. 2010-2011 comes to mind where it was cold from December through early Feb where it abruptly stopped and went crazy warm for the rest of the winter.  We are wasting a good pattern too early.

[GaWx]

Ok guys, mark my words.  A great pattern can only last so long before it eventually flips the opposite direction, usually with the same ferocity as the original extreme, just the polar opposite. 2010-2011 comes to mind where it was cold from December through early Feb where it abruptly stopped and went crazy warm for the rest of the winter.  We are wasting a good pattern too early.

 

 Marietta,

 I'm marking them. I wholeheartedly disagree with your general pessimistic attitude, but you shouldn't be surprised based on my recent posts. I've laid out enough cold, hard facts a number of times.

[FallsLake]

heck, we've had snow in April before. I dont see why we can't get snow in November .

I will have to agree with Marietta to some degree because even with an extreme cold solution it will be very difficult for many low elevation areas to get significant snow this time of year. If your looking for snow flurries or unique situations like the last event, then sure we can get something. **This time of year we should be focused on areas to our north (..Canada) for the of building snow coverage and the freezing of large water features (Hudson Bay, the thousand of lakes, etc.). Only after this will the truly cold air be able to build and then provide us with our first widespread SE winter threat.  ***Usually this(availability) occurs by early/mid December.   

[Brick Tamland]

Ok guys, mark my words.  A great pattern can only last so long before it eventually flips the opposite direction, usually with the same ferocity as the original extreme, just the polar opposite. 2010-2011 comes to mind where it was cold from December through early Feb where it abruptly stopped and went crazy warm for the rest of the winter.  We are wasting a good pattern too early.

 

Actually, what is happening now is the pattern flip we want. And if it lasts from November to February, then that is plenty of time to give us good winter storms. 

[GaWx]

Actually, what is happening now is the pattern flip we want. And if it lasts from November to February, then that is plenty of time to give us good winter storms. 

 

 Yep, a pattern flip in November is actually a positive indicator for a cold winter based on stats from a large sample of analogs. There are always going to be mild interludes during reloading periods. That is perfectly normal. However, that is beside the point. The pessimism anout a cold winter is unwarranted when looking at the facts.

[SnowNiner]

Ok guys, mark my words.  A great pattern can only last so long before it eventually flips the opposite direction, usually with the same ferocity as the original extreme, just the polar opposite. 2010-2011 comes to mind where it was cold from December through early Feb where it abruptly stopped and went crazy warm for the rest of the winter.  We are wasting a good pattern too early.

 

 

 Marietta,

 I'm marking them. I wholeheartedly disagree with your general pessimistic attitude, but you shouldn't be surprised based on my recent posts. I've laid out enough cold, hard facts a number of times.

 

 

I'd agree with both actually.  I think this November pattern is probably a temporary/short term one that goes back to normal/flips toward the end/middle of November.  We probably get some warm days leading in to December for a few weeks perhaps before the true pattern kicks in and we get the pattern that we've all been reading about.   

 

I don't think this November pattern stays for 4 straight months, but I think it certainly can be the predominate one through Dec-Feb (don't care about March). 

[FallsLake]

Actually, what is happening now is the pattern flip we want. And if it lasts from November to February, then that is plenty of time to give us good winter storms. 

Just to be fair, if your looking for that "one flip", you want that to occur in late November or early December. Now I also think this will be a great winter with the predominate pattern flipped in our favor. Just saying normally this would be the best time.

[DaculaWeather]

 Marietta,

 I'm marking them. I wholeheartedly disagree with your general pessimistic attitude, but you shouldn't be surprised based on my recent posts. I've laid out enough cold, hard facts a number of times.

Agreed.

[packfan98]

I would rather have the pattern flip to cold and wet in November than in late March and April like in years past.  Some years it seems that we spend all winter waiting on the pattern to flip to a more favorable one for snow lovers.  We see the teleconnections finally go our way, but then there is such a lag time in the actual weather that it's too late to do any good.

[griteater]

This time of year we should be focused on areas to our north (..Canada) for the of building snow coverage and the freezing of large water features (Hudson Bay, the thousand of lakes, etc.). Only after this will the truly cold air be able to build and then provide us with our first widespread SE winter threat.  ***Usually this(availability) occurs by early/mid December.   

 

[Brick Tamland]

I'd agree with both actually.  I think this November pattern is probably a temporary/short term one that goes back to normal/flips toward the end/middle of November.  We probably get some warm days leading in to December for a few weeks perhaps before the true pattern kicks in and we get the pattern that we've all been reading about.   

 

I don't think this November pattern stays for 4 straight months, but I think it certainly can be the predominate one through Dec-Feb (don't care about March). 

 

The middle of Nov to Dec looks pretty cold on the long range models right now.

[FallsLake]

This is beautiful! At this time of year we really want to pull for our friend to the north.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Hopefully we will have a December to remember. For some reason it seems like Jan and Feb produce more snow than December, even though there is usually plenty of snowcover to our north in December. December is about as cold on average as Jan and Feb. It just seems like areas to our west such as Texas and Oklahoma get more snow in December than the southeast does. I'm fact, it seems like Dallas usually gets their first snow before Atlanta and I have no idea why.

[FallsLake]

Might have to eat some of my words. This is the 12z GFS at hour 192. Not sure how anything will pan out bu man this looks like a good setup.

 

[jshetley]

That's cold and dry, the absolute worst thing that could happen. This area needs rain sometime.

[FallsLake]

That's cold and dry, the absolute worst thing that could happen. This area needs rain sometime.

It is at that particular time, but that is a great look for future potential threats. The GFS did complete after I posted that and it did try to develop something but the low stayed to far off the coast.

[Cold Rain]

The middle of Nov to Dec looks pretty cold on the long range models right now.

How in the world would you know that?!

By the way, why is it not possible to have a cold pattern then a flip to a mild pattern then back cold again and so on? Many winters in the SE feature this sort of paradigm. Some have featured abrupt ends to an established pattern, but most have ups and downs and I have seen no reason to suspect this one is going to be nonstop cold for a period and then change to warm for the rest of the winter.

Overall, it looks predominately cold, though there will most certainly be some milder periods.

[griteater]

That's cold and dry, the absolute worst thing that could happen. This area needs rain sometime.

 

shetley - just curious, why do you need so much rain?  Does it have to do with your line of work...or your yard...or garden?  Is it fear of drought?  Current drought monitor does have parts of SC in D0 - Abnormally Dry

[Brick Tamland]

How in the world would you know that?!

By the way, why is it not possible to have a cold pattern then a flip to a mild pattern then back cold again and so on? Many winters in the SE feature this sort of paradigm. Some have featured abrupt ends to an established pattern, but most have ups and downs and I have seen no reason to suspect this one is going to be nonstop cold for a period and then change to warm for the rest of the winter.

Overall, it looks predominately cold, though there will most certainly be some milder periods.

 

From reading what others have said.

 

And we have had plenty of big snows here right after having a big warm up. 

 

The point is the indicators all point to this being a big winter. We can complain about it at the end of winter if we get nothing or below average snow when most all the mets are calling for a blockbuster winter with above average snow here. But we have a long way to go until then, and there is no point to be pessimistic at this stage.

[Cold Rain]

That's cold and dry, the absolute worst thing that could happen. This area needs rain sometime.

Why is that cold and dry? Because the model isn't showing a big storm? NW flow is cold and dry. The pattern shown would almost certainly provide opportunities for precipitation, assuming it's stable.

[Cold Rain]

From reading what others have said.

And we have had plenty of big snows here right after having a big warm up.

The point is the indicators all point to this being a big winter. We can complain about it at the end of winter if we get nothing or below average snow when most all the mets are calling for a blockbuster winter with above average snow here. But we have a long way to go until then, and there is no point to be pessimistic at this stage.

#truestory

[Kory]

Might have to eat some of my words. This is the 12z GFS at hour 192. Not sure how anything will pan out bu man this looks like a good setup.

I like that flow at 200 mbars.  That's more of an active flow straight out of the Pacific.  

[FallsLake]

I like that flow at 200 mbars.  That's more of an active flow straight out of the Pacific.  

I would say there is definitely some potential for this time period. I suppose this may be our first real tractable time period. There's no storm showing but a pattern that could do something. Stay tuned... 

[mackerel_sky]

I'm not shetley, but for most of the reasons you mentioned, I need rain Grit. There have been big variances in rain over the summer , with people miles away getting too much rain, but mby has been very dry. I enjoy landscaping as a hobby and no rain and no irrigation system , makes for alot of hose-dragging over the summer and now fall. The plants and shrubs need to be up to par on moisture as they go into dormancy and winter. It helps them better take the cold and possibly severe cold we could be facing this winter. Even though the top of trees and shrubs go dormant, their roots grow continuously through winter as long as the ground is not frozen.

[franklin NCwx]

How in the world would you know that?!

By the way, why is it not possible to have a cold pattern then a flip to a mild pattern then back cold again and so on? Many winters in the SE feature this sort of paradigm. Some have featured abrupt ends to an established pattern, but most have ups and downs and I have seen no reason to suspect this one is going to be nonstop cold for a period and then change to warm for the rest of the winter.

Overall, it looks predominately cold, though there will most certainly be some milder periods.

1976 incoming!wall to wall winter!

[GaWx]

1976 incoming!wall to wall winter!

 

Even the wall to wall very cold 1976-7, the coldest winter on record for KATL and many other cities in the SE, had 25 of its 90 DJF days above normal at KATL. 1977-8 had 24 of these days. 2009-10 had 22 of them. For all winters back nearly 100 years, KATL never had a winter with fewer than 18 above normal days per a recent counting that I did. In other words, a good # of mild interludes always happen during even the coldest winters.

[packbacker]

 Marietta,

 I'm marking them. I wholeheartedly disagree with your general pessimistic attitude, but you shouldn't be surprised based on my recent posts. I've laid out enough cold, hard facts a number of times.

 

I think people, including myself, have a hard time imagining 4 months of a "good pattern", with the assumptions the pattern relaxes and reloads during those that time.  Let's face it, the last time we had a cold Nov and a cold rest of the winter Dec-Feb was 2002 and before that it was back in the 1970's.  It's just not that frequent of occurrence as it's only happened once in the past 30 years.