mackerel_sky Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 The trolls will be busy this winter! The good ones that show up when everyone's in a snow frenzy and they highlight the JMA, that is the only model showing rain! Due to our constant snow threats, I expect troll overload this winter! The 6z GFS is obviously underestimating the weight/strength of the cold, duh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 From GSP... .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...AS OF 205 PM EDT TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVEBEEN TO SLOW THE SE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND. THEFORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND HAS GONE FROM MOSTLY DRY A FEW DAYS AGO TOMOSTLY WET FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 From GSP... .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...AS OF 205 PM EDT TUESDAY...MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVEBEEN TO SLOW THE SE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND. THEFORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND HAS GONE FROM MOSTLY DRY A FEW DAYS AGO TOMOSTLY WET FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST. They must be trolls underestimating the weight and strength of the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 I find it weird how we had no problem getting a cold front to move through in the middle of July, but in the middle of September it is such a struggle. Maybe by November we can manage to have a cold front move through to bring us cooler air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 From RAH, re: Long Term: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...AS OF 210 PM TUESDAY......A WET AND COOLER PERIOD FOR THE WEEKEND...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUEFOCUSED ON THE DEEPENING TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND INTONEXT WEEK OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE UNITED STATES. MODELS ANDENSEMBLES HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND WETTER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERNSTATES EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAYINTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THIS MAY TURN OUT TO BE ANOTHER VERY WETPERIOD... THE OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE 2-4 INCHESOF RAIN OVER THE ALREADY SATURATED EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTALPLAIN OF NC DURING THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. WE WILL NOTTOTALLY BUY INTO THAT SOLUTION AS OF YET... HOWEVER THE LATESTENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE DEFINITELY TRENDING TOWARD THE ASSOCIATED COLDFRONT TO STALL SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL OR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINASATURDAY WITH A POTENTIAL WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THAT WOULD ENHANCERAINFALL SAT-SUN. THE FRONT THEN SHOULD SAG SOUTHWARD PLACING OURREGION IN A MOIST NE FLOW AND POTENTIALLY OVERRUNNING RAINFALL LATERSUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WE WILL TREND IN THE WETTER DIRECTION FOR THEWEEKEND.SENSIBLE WEATHER... WARM AND HUMID THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OFTHUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE NW. HIGHS 85-92. A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERSAND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.LOWS IN THE 60S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S SE. A CHANCE OFSHOWERS OR RAIN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MUCH COOLER. LOWS INTHE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS UPPER 60S TO MID 70S EARLY NEXTWEEK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 This is the time of the year for false cold front passages. In 2002, it took until mid October for it to feel like autumn. Last year, we didn't get out first fall push until the last week of September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 This is the time of the year for false cold front passages. In 2002, it took until mid October for it to feel like autumn. Last year, we didn't get out first fall push until the last week of September. 2002 was just horrible. It took forever to cool off. That's the latest I ever remember getting our first big cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 So tired of the rain and the hot temps. This late surge of summer needs to end and we need some DRY fall days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WFFaithful Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 I will welcome more rain. It's still fairly dry here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Are there any thoughts on how or if the next front may interact with the disturbance near southern Florida which is predicted to move west into the Gulf of Mexico. What's the liklihood that rain amounts this weekend for central and eastern NC may go up from what is being forcasted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Are there any thoughts on how or if the next front may interact with the disturbance near southern Florida which is predicted to move west into the Gulf of Mexico. What's the liklihood that rain amounts this weekend for central and eastern NC may go up from what is being forcasted? I think it matters on the actual development, movement, and then our frontal position. All are questionable at this point. I think maybe if the euro is correct and the front does not drop south as much, and you have something move into the Gulf, then yes it could then be shunted back to the NE and increase precip. At this point I have no idea what will happen. I'm a little discouraged, I was really hoping for a nice cool (Fall like)Sunday; but it's looking more and more like the soggy times will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Thanks, Falls. Pretty much my thinking at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 So tired of the rain and the hot temps. This late surge of summer needs to end and we need some DRY fall days. Hot temps? You're still in Wake Forest, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 So tired of the rain and the hot temps. This late surge of summer needs to end and we need some DRY fall days. I think it matters on the actual development, movement, and then our frontal position. All are questionable at this point. I think maybe if the euro is correct and the front does not drop south as much, and you have something move into the Gulf, then yes it could then be shunted back to the NE and increase precip. At this point I have no idea what will happen. I'm a little discouraged, I was really hoping for a nice cool (Fall like)Sunday; but it's looking more and more like the soggy times will continue. I don't know about you guys, but my NWS page shows highs in the 70s for all forecasted days beyond Thursday. Sounds fall-like to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 I don't know about you guys, but my NWS page shows highs in the 70s for all forecasted days beyond Thursday. Sounds fall-like to me. That does look good and I really should not complain; but I'm greedy and I want that 72 degree, sunny/deep blue sky, breezy, and low humidly weekend day. A couple of days back Sunday was looking close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 That does look good and I really should not complain; but I'm greedy and I want that 72 degree, sunny/deep blue sky, breezy, and low humidly weekend day. A couple of days back Sunday was looking close to that. Gotcha. I think you'll get your wish for Monday and following of next week. But, those aren't weekend days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 At this rate we are going to be 90 in October??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 At this rate we are going to be 90 in October??? Maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Maybe... CFSv2_NaT2mProb_20140908_201410.gif I was reading somewhere else that this was actually a good sign -- warm October equals cold winter. But that is still a scary map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 I was reading somewhere else that this was actually a good sign -- warm October equals cold winter. But that is still a scary map. Mexico looks chilly! FWIW, JB's fall forecast is warm. I would mention other fall forecasts, but I haven't read any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Does this mean we may not see our first push of cooler, fall-like air until November in Georgia ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Does this mean we may not see our first push of cooler, fall-like air until November in Georgia ? Not at all. In fact, the odds of not feeling a fall airmass in GA until November are pretty long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Mexico looks chilly! FWIW, JB's fall forecast is warm. I would mention other fall forecasts, but I haven't read any. Actually our resident member GaWx mentioned this correlation (warm October - cold winter) in the Mid Atlantic / Winter topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Actually our resident member GaWx mentioned this correlation (warm October - cold winter) in the Mid Atlantic / Winter topic. I missed that. Hopefully, that will come to fruition this year. I'm very optimistic about this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 12 GFS shows the CAD setting up for this weekend. At hour 60 dew points should be in the 50s from RDU westward. At this point dew points will still be at or above 70 from the NC boarder southward. (but)As with many other CADs don't underestimate the ability of cool air to sink further south than modeled. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=09&model_dd=10&model_init_hh=12&fhour=60¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Here's the long term from RAH: .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...A POTENTIALLY GRAY AND DAMP PATTERN MAY BE SHAPING UP FOR CENTRAL NCDURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLYEXTENDING FROM LOWER MI SW TO CENTRAL TX MOVES SOUTH AND WILL BELOCATED ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NC BY 12Z FRIDAY.THE FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY GIVENPROLONGED SW FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TOSTREAM NORTHWARD IN THE AFOREMENTIONED SW FLOW...INTERACTING ANDLIFTING OVER THE BOUNDARY AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR PERIODS ORPOCKETS OF RAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE IT WON`T BE RAINING THEENTIRE TIME...THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY FORECAST PWATVALUES BETWEEN 2 AND 2.25 INCHES ACROSS OUR AREA SUGGEST THAT ANY OFTHE HEAVIER AND/OR PROLONGED DOWNPOURS MAY RESULT IN URBAN...SMALLSTREAM OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF DEPICT A TRAILING SHORT WAVE AND ASSOC SFCFRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE SATURDAY ORSATURDAY NIGHT. THEY SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCEFOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS DURING THIS TIME. THEN THE MAINFORECAST CHALLENGE OCCURS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...AS THE GFS IS MOREPROGRESSIVE AND PUSHES THE FRONT FARTHER OFF THE COAST...WITH ABREAK IN THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA FROM MID-SUNDAYTHROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF STALLS THIS BOUNDARY AS WELLOVER OUR AREA AND KEEPS THE CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NC SUNDAYRIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THIS PARTOF THE FORECAST.THEREAFTER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT EVENTUALLY SOMEDRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THEWEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PERIOD REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE SYNOPTICPATTERN WHICH FEATURES A BROAD TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTINGACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON TIMING THECLOUDS AND PRECIP. HOWEVER...WITH A PROLONG CLOUDY AND POTENTIALLYWET PERIOD EXPECTED...LOOK FOR COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS MUCH OF THETIME. NORMAL TEMPS THIS TIME YEAR HAS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ANDLOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Still looking like an extended period of unsettled weather upcoming for parts of the Carolinas: RAH HWO: HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC332 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2014NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-111945-PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-332 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2014THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THEWEEKEND...AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OFRAIN DURING THIS TIME MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF SMALLSTREAMS AND CREEKS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Ha ha, I beat you to it Cold Rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Ha ha, I beat you to it Cold Rain... You suck. Solak got me the other day by 30 seconds too! I'll delete the AFD and at least leave the HWO up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Greer is starting to ramp up the pops for Saturday in their NC counties now as a low pressure may try to form and throw easterly winds up against a surface wedge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.