WidreMann Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 The lack of rain this fall and late summer continues. Not much of an El Nino signal there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Kind of the kiss of death, huh All I have to do is remember the great winter ya'll had with the blocking, and storms galore, and all I got down here was two lousy inches of tag end snow for the whole winter...no sleet I could do something with, but that danged snow stuff, lol. Oh, ok, I did get CR's Xmas snow...one whole inch, but really..blocking smocking. Danged Lookout got his own private snow squall for a whole day..and I'm in the dry slot the whole storm until that last hour. Only counts if it blocks something down on you. Maybe this is the year when the beyond the earth's edge...south of I 20, where there be monsters... gets the goods from weak Gom lows, and you guys are asking me for the crumbs Me and Shack, El K, Delta, and Candyman will oblige, 'cause that's just how we are...but only after we get ours, lol. My record down here is 10 3/4's, and I want to see a foot if it has to be snow, but I'd take 3 inches of CR's rogue sleet any day, all day.Tony, I agree that the bulk of N GA has absolutely nothing about which to complain based on the winters 2008-9 through 2013-14 as a whole. If a north Georgian were to suggest otherwise, it would suggest being out of touch with climo. However, to be fair, I don't know that anyone in N GA is actually complaining. If anyone were doing that from there, I'd probably put them in the chronic whiner/complainer/rarely content category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 The lack of rain this fall and late summer continues. Not much of an El Nino signal there.Um...the STJ usually doesn't become more active over the SE until later in November into December anyway. It's usually non existant in the summer and early fall due to less of a temperature gradient between the tropics and mid latitudes...that's normal for most Ninos. If you look out over the Pacific, you can see it starting to fire up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Um...the STJ usually doesn't become more active over the SE until later in November into December anyway. It's usually non existant in the summer and early fall due to less of a temperature gradient between the tropics and mid latitudes...that's normal for most Ninos. If you look out over the Pacific, you can see it starting to fire up.We've had far wetter years than this. An active storm track in the fall is usually, to me, a good sign for winter. Cold much less so. It usually gets cold in the winter at some point anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Definitely a +PNA pattern taking hold in the medium to long range in the model ensembles. To me this is the signal of choice if I could only choose one to stay constant all winter it would a pos PNA. Even without blocking it will continually pump or bleed cold air to us even if it moves out as fast as it moves in. Odds are you'll time it just right eventually a time or 2 with some southern energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 To me this is the signal of choice if I could only choose one to stay constant all winter it would a pos PNA. Even without blocking it will continually pump or bleed cold air to us even if it moves out as fast as it moves in. Odds are you'll time it just right eventually a time or 2 with some southern energy.+PNA means dry cold here with PGV getting 3" every five days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 We've had far wetter years than this. An active storm track in the fall is usually, to me, a good sign for winter. Cold much less so. It usually gets cold in the winter at some point anyway. Widre, stop worrying. You're going to have a good winter. Just go out and enjoy this beautiful fall day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 +PNA means dry cold here with PGV getting 3" every five days. seems to be the case doesn't it? lol. Well this should make you feel better, the GFS ENS doesn't look as cold as the OP. Just overall keeps things seasonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 seems to be the case doesn't it? lol. Well this should make you feel better, the GFS ENS doesn't look as cold as the OP. Just overall keeps things seasonal. Burger, My provider's 12Z GEFS actually show 850 based anomalies to be below normal for the 6-15 day period for much of the SE fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Burger, My provider's 12Z GEFS actually show 850 based anomalies to be below normal for the 6-15 day period for much of the SE fwiw. Just briefly looked at it. Mainly was speaking about at around 240. CMC also looks interesting for that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Just glanced at the 00z euro ensembles and they have below avg 850's across the eastern 2/3 of the country all the way through the run. The control run looks very cold at the end of it's run with big aleutian low and ridge on the west coast that extends poleward. 850 temp departures on the control run were near -20 way out in lala land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Tony, I agree that the bulk of N GA has absolutely nothing about which to complain based on the winters 2008-9 through 2013-14 as a whole. If a north Georgian were to suggest otherwise, it would suggest being out of touch with climo. However, to be fair, I don't know that anyone in N GA is actually complaining. If anyone were doing that from there, I'd probably put them in the chronic whiner/complainer/rarely content category. Hey, Larry. You didn't see my question about record early snows, in particular 93, and bookend storms. I calculate a 1 in 4 chance for a March Blizzard based on 93's inclusion in top four early snows, and it's amazing bookend storm. Surely your abacus can't find fault in my climo conclusions, can it? Did the other early snows presage any other amazing wonder events like 93? Maybe it's one in 3, or even two? T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Hey, Larry. You didn't see my question about record early snows, in particular 93, and bookend storms. I calculate a 1 in 4 chance for a March Blizzard based on 93's inclusion in top four early snows, and it's amazing bookend storm. Surely your abacus can't find fault in my climo conclusions, can it? Did the other early snows presage any other amazing wonder events like 93? Maybe it's one in 3, or even two? T Tony, Don't shoot or knife me since I'm just trying to be a friendly messenger. So, keeping that in mind, the 10/31/93 KATL flurries were, of course, AFTER the March of 2013 blizzard, not before it. So, I think you're a tiny bit confused. It must be mole related. Nevertheless, if it will help you any, I'm quite a bit more optimistic for both a cold and wintry 2014-5 in Atlanta and much of the inland SE US than I have ever been for ANY winter since Al Gore invented the internet. Seriously, I'm very, very pumped about the upcoming winter right now! And I would hope like heck you think of me as NOT being cold and snow biased. If anyone does, I'll be more than happy to go back to old posts, link them here, and prove I'm not. I call it like I see it and I don't think I see winters through rose colored glasses. I may be a bit quieter if I think it is going to be warm. But I won't hide that feeling if I'm going to post about it. I'm not just talking about posts in which I call JB out on being cold biased (as far back as the not cold Feb. of 2001, in which JB called for the "Ghost of Feb. 1899" to appear as well as the disasterous 2001-02 vodka cold winter and the then very cold biased MRF/AVN) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Nice cold shot at the end of the Euro run for the Central U.S. Deep trough looks spurred by recurving Typhoon Nuri merging with a monster Aleutian storm this coming weekend. Usually the effects are felt with a large trough 3-5 days following. Major Aleutian storm (actually down to 920 mbars) Large central U.S. trough following a few days later. Could get very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Yeah Kory the pattern looks very active going into November. Seems like we will see a highly amplified pattern taking shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 We are going to waste a good pattern too early in the season. We would much rather see this shift to a favorable pattern in mid December not early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 We are going to waste a good pattern too early in the season. We would much rather see this shift to a favorable pattern in mid December not early November.How about a repeating pattern? Just cause a promising pattern sets up in Nov. , doesn't mean it won't set up in DJF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Day 8 upper air analogs...a couple of these past events produced some big Southern Plains snows. Looks cold nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Tony, Don't shoot or knife me since I'm just trying to be a friendly messenger. So, keeping that in mind, the 10/31/93 KATL flurries were, of course, AFTER the March of 2013 blizzard, not before it. So, I think you're a tiny bit confused. It must be mole related. Nevertheless, if it will help you any, I'm quite a bit more optimistic for both a cold and wintry 2014-5 in Atlanta and much of the inland SE US than I have ever been for ANY winter since Al Gore invented the internet. Seriously, I'm very, very pumped about the upcoming winter right now! And I would hope like heck you think of me as NOT being cold and snow biased. If anyone does, I'll be more than happy to go back to old posts, link them here, and prove I'm not. I call it like I see it and I don't think I see winters through rose colored glasses. I may be a bit quieter if I think it is going to be warm. But I won't hide that feeling if I'm going to post about it. I'm not just talking about posts in which I call JB out on being cold biased (as far back as the not cold Feb. of 2001, in which JB called for the "Ghost of Feb. 1899" to appear as well as the disasterous 2001-02 vodka cold winter and the then very cold biased MRF/AVN) I agree, things look great, hard to think what could be better. An interior SE (ATL-CLT-GSO-ROA) and points NW is probably the sweet spot for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Day 8 upper air analogs...a couple of these past events produced some big Southern Plains snows. Looks cold nonetheless. And there's 2002 and 1976 showing up a few times there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 We are going to waste a good pattern too early in the season. We would much rather see this shift to a favorable pattern in mid December not early November. Normally I would worry right there along with you. The thing that keeps me very optimistic is all the analogs out there. Think this is where as Larry said the cold November is a good thing for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 I think it is FFC's fault. Seriously, yes ATL only got down to 34, but NE ATL got to 32. Also, look for all ATL stations other than ATL, itself to easily get a freeze tonight. FFC is predicting a very impressive near 28 for much of the area! If ATL can get lucky (if the stars all align just right), then maybe they can sneak a 32. Although not likely since tonight will be a radiational cooling night (ATL absolutely sucks at these vs surrounding stations), I do think there is a small chance they sneak in a surprise 32. Well the official reading is in the middle of the runways at the busiest airport in the world, so their is a heat island around it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 We are going to waste a good pattern too early in the season. We would much rather see this shift to a favorable pattern in mid December not early November. Wasn't it 2, maybe 3 years ago DC and VA had a Halloween snow, and realy not another until Prez Day? Gotta be careful about early cold and snow. But then again -- some of the analogs throw this comment in the trash.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 18z GFS really drops some cold air into the east coast. Again this looks more like December. Pretty rad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Tony, Don't shoot or knife me since I'm just trying to be a friendly messenger. So, keeping that in mind, the 10/31/93 KATL flurries were, of course, AFTER the March of 2013 blizzard, not before it. So, I think you're a tiny bit confused. It must be mole related. Nevertheless, if it will help you any, I'm quite a bit more optimistic for both a cold and wintry 2014-5 in Atlanta and much of the inland SE US than I have ever been for ANY winter since Al Gore invented the internet. Seriously, I'm very, very pumped about the upcoming winter right now! And I would hope like heck you think of me as NOT being cold and snow biased. If anyone does, I'll be more than happy to go back to old posts, link them here, and prove I'm not. I call it like I see it and I don't think I see winters through rose colored glasses. I may be a bit quieter if I think it is going to be warm. But I won't hide that feeling if I'm going to post about it. I'm not just talking about posts in which I call JB out on being cold biased (as far back as the not cold Feb. of 2001, in which JB called for the "Ghost of Feb. 1899" to appear as well as the disasterous 2001-02 vodka cold winter and the then very cold biased MRF/AVN) So it's the vaunted reversed inside out double winter bookends! Way, way better! Bookends back to back in the middle, create an ever expanding wave in either direction, thus amplifying the effect. Cool beyond measure!! No wonder you are so uncharacteristically stimulated by the coming winter's promise A blizzard now seems inevitable, I know you'll agree. I could almost say you would only be 90% accepting if we end up a degree over average with three months of cool rain, or dry cool, lol. I don't worry because any anomaly like yesterday's might be the beginning of a winter like none in history, as easily as not! No, Larry if any thing I'd say you are resistant to hyperbol and weather hysteria, burdened, as you are by the unwavering exactitude of numbers, and historical records, where the rest of us are unfettered, and free to rely on our faulty memories, dreams, rumours, and erroneous information. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 18z GFS really drops some cold air into the east coast. Again this looks more like December. Pretty rad. just took a look and yeah that is some cold air showing up in the country in under 10 day. Not sure what to believe but everything is pointing to a stormier pattern setting up soon. The cold being shown up is pretty rad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 That 1041 mbar high pressure sliding into the Plains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Very impressive indeed Kory. Seems like the models may be trending more and more on the stormy side of things and much much colder. This November may be one to remember. Heck it all ready is a November to remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Day 8 upper air analogs...a couple of these past events produced some big Southern Plains snows. Looks cold nonetheless.Need the white carpet to get laid down next, western Canada, more importantly the plains, then the +pna can route the cold air on down our way with less resistance or modifying. Getting excited a little on how things are evolving. Going to be interesting as November comes and goes watching the table get set for one of the most hyped up winters in a while, Dp's are in the upper teens here Imby, wind is dying off so this will easily be our first hard freeze and trip down into the mid 20s since last winter faded away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 We are going to waste a good pattern too early in the season. We would much rather see this shift to a favorable pattern in mid December not early November. I was thinking the same thing, if we have "X" number of weeks of a good pattern I want it to start in mid/end-Dec. But, looking at relevant analogs, mainly from RaleighWx's writeup, several had colder than normal Novembers. And, 76-77 was the only winter below climo for snow for RDU, not sure about other cities. How did the other cities (CLT/ATL/CAE) do in the cold Nov analogs below? For RDU the season snow totals are in parentheses. Edit: GaWx was happy with a cold November starting to show on models, I am starting to see why. Warm Central/East Novembers 2009 2003 1958 1986 Cold Central/East Novembers 2002 (7.4") 1979 (18.3") 1976 (3.6") 1965 (12.3") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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