Kory Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Robert posted this on FB a little while ago. His forecast is out on his site now, good time to sign up for his updates if you haven't already! "******* WIINTER OUTLOOK 2014 - 2015 ******* Another Harsh Winter. Warm Oceans =Cold Continents. I'm forecasting another wicked Winter in the central and eastern US, following last year's cold Winter. This time, a "split-flow" and active storm track will create a few periods where even the Deep South can get into ice and Snow. There's a lot of reasons I went with this kind of setup, and pointed those out at the site. Western Ridging, Eventual Greenland and Eastern Canada blocking should force very large Continental Arctic Highs back down into the United States, again. Two main storm tracks are likely, one through the lower Midwest, the other from the Gulf of Mexico up the East Coast. This type of pattern was common in the 1960s, the late 1970s, early 1980s and in 2009/10...so if you recall those years, you will get a stark reminder of the Wrath of Ol' Man Winter." wxsouth.jpg 09/10 is most recent and memorable in my book...I was still living in New Orleans at the time. The subtropical jet streak was almost always located over the Gulf Coast that whole winter. Plenty of moisture was available...it rained practically everyday in December. They actually broke the record for the wettest month EVER in New Orleans at nearly 30" of rain. Many cities along the Gulf Coast recorded their earliest snowfall on record as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 BMX has a freeze warning 15 miles to my west for tonight and a freeze watch for tomorrow night. FFC has me with temps in the mid 30s the next 2 nights. Something has to give. They issued a Freeze Watch so you can put your mind at ease now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Robert posted this on FB a little while ago. His forecast is out on his site now, good time to sign up for his updates if you haven't already! "******* WIINTER OUTLOOK 2014 - 2015 ******* Another Harsh Winter. Warm Oceans =Cold Continents. I'm forecasting another wicked Winter in the central and eastern US, following last year's cold Winter. This time, a "split-flow" and active storm track will create a few periods where even the Deep South can get into ice and Snow. There's a lot of reasons I went with this kind of setup, and pointed those out at the site. Western Ridging, Eventual Greenland and Eastern Canada blocking should force very large Continental Arctic Highs back down into the United States, again. Two main storm tracks are likely, one through the lower Midwest, the other from the Gulf of Mexico up the East Coast. This type of pattern was common in the 1960s, the late 1970s, early 1980s and in 2009/10...so if you recall those years, you will get a stark reminder of the Wrath of Ol' Man Winter." I agree with Brick, now Robert's just playing with my childhood. I remember that it used to snow like twice a year back then it seemed. Good snows too, 4 inches or so....covering the grass. Well Robert was right last year, hopefully he's right again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Ensembles say what warm up? Nino pattern showing up on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Ensembles say what warm up? Nino pattern showing up on the ensembles. Nino pattern is definitely showing up. Look at the STJ getting active...look at it feeding into Mexico and SW U.S. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 1, 2014 Author Share Posted November 1, 2014 Robert was also wrong for two years in a row prior to that along with JB. He's a met that needs subscriptions. He's never going to forecast a torch winter and neither will JB. He is an entertainer with a met degree. People here have enough knowledge to be able to recognize the difference between the long range forecasts of the last couple of years and this year. The simplest way I can explain it is this. LAST FEW YEARS: "A" looks good and may be able to overcome a less than favorable "B". If "C" is less intense than it currently forecasted we could have a cold snowy winter. THIS YEAR: "A" check, "B" check, "C" check. Get ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 People here have enough knowledge to be able to recognize the difference between the long range forecasts of the last couple of years and this year. The simplest way I can explain it is this. LAST FEW YEARS: "A" looks good and may be able to overcome a less than favorable "B". If "C" is less intense than it currently forecasted we could have a cold snowy winter. THIS YEAR: "A" check, "B" check, "C" check. Get ready. Agreed the stars appear to be lined up this year. I hope it produces or this season will be a bust of epic proportions unlike anything we have ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Agreed the stars appear to be lined up this year. I hope it produces or this season will be a bust of epic proportions unlike anything we have ever seen. And of course this early season snow in some areas will only make the expectations for the winter that much greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 People here have enough knowledge to be able to recognize the difference between the long range forecasts of the last couple of years and this year. The simplest way I can explain it is this. LAST FEW YEARS: "A" looks good and may be able to overcome a less than favorable "B". If "C" is less intense than it currently forecasted we could have a cold snowy winter. THIS YEAR: "A" check, "B" check, "C" check. Get ready. I have never seen so many mets say winter should be above average for snow here since I started reading these weather boards a few years ago. Every one of them seem to be going all in for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 So , before this snow got in the way, I thought a few people were saying it was looking wet soon and the sub tropical jet was about to get active. Is this still showing up on the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 I have never seen so many mets say winter should be above average for snow here since I started reading these weather boards a few years ago. Every one of them seem to be going all in for this winter.Because of the OPI, basically. Everything else is not a strong signal. And the OPI/SCE/SAI stuff busted last year, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Because of the OPI, basically. Everything else is not a strong signal. And the OPI/SCE/SAI stuff busted last year, so... There is a pretty strong signal for a weak El Nino and a very strong signal for a solid +PDO. As long as we also get a solid-AO, which is very likely if you believe the SAI and OPI, then the chances would be quite high that we'd be in like Flynn and have a cold winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Larry Cosgrove is very bullish on Nov. 12th and beyond period and I can see why looking at the long range. +PNA/-AO sets up sending cold and stormy conditions across the east coast. Temps across GA/NC appears to be below normal but doesn't appear snow is in the forecast yet....I think that will be the time to look for WRT to a more widespread snow in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Larry Cosgrove is very bullish on Nov. 12th and beyond period and I can see why looking at the long range. +PNA/-AO sets up sending cold and stormy conditions across the east coast. Temps across GA/NC appears to be below normal but doesn't appear snow is in the forecast yet....I think that will be the time to look for WRT to a more widespread snow in the SE. I read that from his Tweet earlier. We really are starting off with a bang! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 GFS teasing again on the 06z run with a 540 cut off ULL coming over WNC on the night of the 6th. Looks like at least a very nice NWF event for the mountains, that is a good bit of moisture too so it could get interesting on the backside. It looks like it moves the low pressure center N with 534 air but that is what the GFS tried to do with this last system a few days out. Nonetheless something to watch and would lend credit to whoever said that this could be a frequent pattern this year. Euro ensemble also giving support with accumulating snowfall on 27/50 members for KAVL & 27/50 for Boone. None are big storms but the signal is there. It is also a day slower then the GFS currently so still lots of details to be scrubbed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 This time further west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Yeah Steve! Was just looking back at the previous GFS and Euro runs and this seems to be a new look for both of them compared the what they were showing the last few runs. I would love to see this track set up all winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Definitely a +PNA pattern taking hold in the medium to long range in the model ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Larry Cosgrove is very bullish on Nov. 12th and beyond period and I can see why looking at the long range. +PNA/-AO sets up sending cold and stormy conditions across the east coast. Temps across GA/NC appears to be below normal but doesn't appear snow is in the forecast yet....I think that will be the time to look for WRT to a more widespread snow in the SE. I love reading LC. He's the only person to use phrases like: "the +PNA/-AO array", "the ggem and GFS equations", the cAk air mass", "the old south", "Appalachia", and "the panhandle hooker". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Look like some Gulf low action is making an appearance on the models for this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 It looks like somehow Atlanta will manage to escape this cold snap without a freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Look like some Gulf low action is making an appearance on the models for this week. that's what we really need to get a good, widespread se winter storm. cold temps and a juicy GOM low. if we could get a couple in november/early dec and have them continue through winter we might be in luck makes me nervous to see all the colder and snowier than normal forecasts though. you never know in the se lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 It looks like somehow Atlanta will manage to escape this cold snap without a freeze. I think it is FFC's fault. Seriously, yes ATL only got down to 34, but NE ATL got to 32. Also, look for all ATL stations other than ATL, itself to easily get a freeze tonight. FFC is predicting a very impressive near 28 for much of the area! If ATL can get lucky (if the stars all align just right), then maybe they can sneak a 32. Although not likely since tonight will be a radiational cooling night (ATL absolutely sucks at these vs surrounding stations), I do think there is a small chance they sneak in a surprise 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 that's what we really need to get a good, widespread se winter storm. cold temps and a juicy GOM low. if we could get a couple in november/early dec and have them continue through winter we might be in luck makes me nervous to see all the colder and snowier than normal forecasts though. you never know in the se lol We seem to be in a new era of classic Miller A major SE US winter storms. Many here got this in 2/2010, 1/2011, and 2/2014. Three rather widespread major Miller A SE winter storms in five years is quite impressive relative to history in ATL. I consider 3.5"+ to be major for KATL. ATL has gotten one of these only about once every 3.5 years on average since the late 1800's. So, obviously the 3 in 5 years is quite an achievement. And that's not even counting the upper level low that produced major snow 3/1/2009, the snow of 3/2/2010, the Christmas snow of 2010, and Snowjam II of 2014 at ATL! So, the snow and IP gods have been very generous for N GA. Now, if we could only get RDU to get a major per their climo or at least an above climo total seasonal amount (they've been doing a lot of complaining that they've been getting "screwed"), then they'd also be happy along with many of the rest of us. The crazy thing is that despite having had these recent impressive years for SN/IP, ATL (and the SE as a whole) will have a solidly above average shot at still another impressive winter regarding overall wintry precip. I would even say that there's an above avg. shot at a sig. ZR there, which would be the 2nd winter in a row of that at KATL, itself! All of this wintry excitement is not only resembling the late 1970's-early 1980's, but it is even starting to resemble the greatest era of ATL SN, the 1880's-early 1900's. Perhaps this is in some way related to the new weak sunspot era we entered around 2007?? Keep in mind that the 1880's-1890's was still another declining sunspot period that lead to a pretty significant 100 or so year minimum during the early 1900's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Hm, modeling looks pretty interesting. Euro Control especially. Not "snowy" per say, but okay looking. Hopefully someone can analyse it a bit better. Pretty neat to see modeling show another cutoff so soon dropping pretty far down. Nothing like yesterday of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 12z GFS in the long range looks like it's setting up a classic winter look across the east coast. Looks more like the middle of December pattern than the middle of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Hm, modeling looks pretty interesting. Euro Control especially. Not "snowy" per say, but okay looking. Hopefully someone can analyse it a bit better. There's no question in my mind that modeling is suggesting a continued change from the overall warm pattern of Oct. to a near to below normal pattern in November. As far as I'm concerned, this is just what the doctor ordered as far as a lead up to what likely will be a solidly cold and wintry SE winter. Regarding snow, it is, of course, way too early to worry about that notwithstanding the once in a lifetime very early very strong SC upper low/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Well after 240 the pattern goes to seasonal...but if something around 240 can line up there could be big fireworks to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Well after 240 the pattern goes to seasonal...but if something around 240 can line up there could be big fireworks to our north. I'm able to see out to hour 216. At that point it does look very promising. Of course this depiction will change but something to keep an eye on. Can't believe I'm actually looking at the models (for wintery threats) this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 that's what we really need to get a good, widespread se winter storm. cold temps and a juicy GOM low. if we could get a couple in november/early dec and have them continue through winter we might be in luck makes me nervous to see all the colder and snowier than normal forecasts though. you never know in the se lol Kind of the kiss of death, huh All I have to do is remember the great winter ya'll had with the blocking, and storms galore, and all I got down here was two lousy inches of tag end snow for the whole winter...no sleet I could do something with, but that danged snow stuff, lol. Oh, ok, I did get CR's Xmas snow...one whole inch, but really..blocking smocking. Danged Lookout got his own private snow squall for a whole day..and I'm in the dry slot the whole storm until that last hour. Only counts if it blocks something down on you. Maybe this is the year when the beyond the earth's edge...south of I 20, where there be monsters... gets the goods from weak Gom lows, and you guys are asking me for the crumbs Me and Shack, El K, Delta, and Candyman will oblige, 'cause that's just how we are...but only after we get ours, lol. My record down here is 10 3/4's, and I want to see a foot if it has to be snow, but I'd take 3 inches of CR's rogue sleet any day, all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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