calculus1 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Because of downsloping, I think piedmont areas to the east of Hickory, Lincolnton, Morganton, and Shelby might actually have a better chance of seeing some brief snowfall out of this. Robert Gamble has an excellent writeup on Facebook this morning (his website is down), and he is optimistic for areas east of the mountains, but it's always a tricky call here when the moisture comes from the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDa-wx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 first time I've gone to coolwx this season, and this is what I find on the 6z gfs for KCLT? if this is any indication of how this winter is going to be, this board is going to need a lot more bandwith! I say bring it (as unlikely as it may be) http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=BUOY&stn=KCLT&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 I think it's 5+ 2"-4" for an advisory. 1-3" advisory 2-4". Warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 1-3" advisory 2-4". Warning Probably going to need a warning out for at least Northen Buncombe Co. If that is the case. I could easily see a place like Weaverville, Alexander, or Sandy Mush picking up 2-4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherExperiment Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Brad Panovich has posted the latest 24-hour probability of snowfall accumulating greater than or equal to 1" with a 5-10% chance. It now includes areas south of Charlotte right down to the NC/SC border of Union, Anson and Richmond counties (in NC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Latest GFS 60 hr run on the precip...there is no way the snow drops that far south....the NAM looks like it is more reasonableconsidering the setup at hand... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Here is the NAM by comparison... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDa-wx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 I'm gonna say there's 0% chance of any piedmont accumulation with these ground temps. Pretty surprised Brad P put out a map like that. If anything, people may see some novelty flakes but that's about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 GFS keeps ticking further south each run with the cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 I'm gonna say there's 0% chance of any piedmont accumulation with these ground temps. Pretty surprised Brad P put out a map like that. If anything, people may see some novelty flakes but that's about it It's not Brad's map. He just posted it on his variety of social media feeds. It's from the WPC, and it's not outlandish, but many people don't understand probabilities properly. According to their calculations, there's only a 5% chance (or less) that snow of up to 1 inch would accumulate in those outer areas; i.e., it's not going to happen 19 out of 20 times in a similar setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 The latest NAM run is pretty much perfect for a significant NC snowfall. The only problem is it's October lol. I think the mountains will get blasted with some areas in the foothills and piedmont getting trace amounts. Maybe someone lucks out and get's an inch. It would need to be overnight Friday, as the models rush temps up quick as sun as the soon comes out Sat morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 lol - wow how awesome is it to get a first se shot as some snow and we are discussing it in OCTOBER obviously climo should temper expectations but it certainly interesting and nice to see. nc mtns should be white in a couple of days. when i saw the explosion in posts did a quick click to the gsp site and saw the watches up lol. i was pleasantly surprised to see them this early i think i have seen a few flakes in ne ga in nov, but a few of the tiny ones and late november. however, even the discussion of flakes mixing in anywhere in the se (outside the mtns) at this point is hard to fathom. while there is plenty of room for being dubious at this point, it will be interesting to see how it plays out, how the models handle things, etc. as we are approaching winter. unscientific, but this will hopefully give us an idea of how things *may* play out this winter. i am certainly rooting for over producing (yes i know its oct/nov but i guess 2 flakes would qualify this early in the season). seems like some years the models look great only to fall apart as we approach the event, other years they are so-so and look better at the event. and as long as that horrid and infamous "northwest shift" stays out of the picture maybe the se can get another good winter. we Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Euro is pretty wet at 12z it gives everyone west of CLT and gso in NC around .50 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Euro is pretty wet at 12z it gives everyone west of CLT and gso in NC around .50 QPF Yeah but it got a lot warmer this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 I'm conflicted over where to post stuff on this event. Anyway, here's Brad P.'s latest video thoughts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Latest GFS 60 hr run on the precip...there is no way the snow drops that far south....the NAM looks like it is more reasonableconsidering the setup at hand... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Would be wild if the GFS actually verified. From 80s to snow in less than a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 the problem with upper SC (northeast of cola) getting snow will be the timing. most of the moisture will come over as the temps are rising late in the morning unlike CLT and points west where they will have the advantage of colder temps earlier in the morning with the hevaiest precip overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 the problem with upper SC (northeast of cola) getting snow will be the timing. most of the moisture will come over as the temps are rising late in the morning unlike CLT and points west where they will have the advantage of colder temps earlier in the morning with the hevaiest precip overhead. Your probably right, but these things are very tricky to pin down. I got snow last year on nov 12th that we weren't supposed to get. I just can' t believe that this is the remnants of the same storm that brushed Hawaii as a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Yeah but it got a lot warmer this run. I ran the 12z Euro through my Warm Bias Unskewer™ and got 1-3" of snow. (For those who are new, no, I'm not being serious at all) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 The high temps for Saturday are crazy for this early in November. Highs struggling to get into the 50s in Charleston, when average is 73. 15-25 below average for highs in most of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 BMX has a freeze warning 15 miles to my west for tonight and a freeze watch for tomorrow night. FFC has me with temps in the mid 30s the next 2 nights. Something has to give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 BMX has a freeze warning 15 miles to my west for tonight and a freeze watch for tomorrow night. FFC has me with temps in the mid 30s the next 2 nights. Something has to give.FFC will likely trend toward BMX. The strongest cold air avection will be over North Georgia. You will likely see your first freeze this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 BMX has a freeze warning 15 miles to my west for tonight and a freeze watch for tomorrow night. FFC has me with temps in the mid 30s the next 2 nights. Something has to give.Snowstorm, I wonder what % of your posts have "FFC" in them. I'm going to place the over/under at 75%. ;) What do you guess? You owe a lot to FFC for giving you lots of things about which to post. Without FFC, I don't know what you would do. I think you should get them a gift of some sort. Actually, I think FFC loves you because you give them so much attention hehe. I'm in a silly and good mood because of the cold coming just after 10/31.Sorry if this was off topic, but I couldn't resist. I'm sure there are things I repeat over and over like KATL and climo! So, I owe KATL a gift. Also, KSAV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 ..RECORD HALLOWEEN SNOWFALL SET ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRALWISCONSIN... SNOWFALL PREVIOUS TODAY SNOWFALLCITY (INCHES) RECORD YEAR----------------------------------------------------------------RHINELANDER 2.3 0.8 1939WAUSAU 1.7 1.6 1932NOTE...INFORMATION AS OF 10 AM AND IS CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 RSO STATUS...GOES-E RSO WILL BE IN PLACE FROM 31/1714Z-01/1644Z IN SUPPORT OFMONITORING THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT ON THE EAST COAST.KEMPISTY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Robert posted this on FB a little while ago. His forecast is out on his site now, good time to sign up for his updates if you haven't already! "******* WIINTER OUTLOOK 2014 - 2015 ******* Another Harsh Winter. Warm Oceans =Cold Continents. I'm forecasting another wicked Winter in the central and eastern US, following last year's cold Winter. This time, a "split-flow" and active storm track will create a few periods where even the Deep South can get into ice and Snow. There's a lot of reasons I went with this kind of setup, and pointed those out at the site. Western Ridging, Eventual Greenland and Eastern Canada blocking should force very large Continental Arctic Highs back down into the United States, again. Two main storm tracks are likely, one through the lower Midwest, the other from the Gulf of Mexico up the East Coast. This type of pattern was common in the 1960s, the late 1970s, early 1980s and in 2009/10...so if you recall those years, you will get a stark reminder of the Wrath of Ol' Man Winter." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Robert posted this on FB a little while ago. His forecast is out on his site now, good time to sign up for his updates if you haven't already! "******* WIINTER OUTLOOK 2014 - 2015 ******* Another Harsh Winter. Warm Oceans =Cold Continents. I'm forecasting another wicked Winter in the central and eastern US, following last year's cold Winter. This time, a "split-flow" and active storm track will create a few periods where even the Deep South can get into ice and Snow. There's a lot of reasons I went with this kind of setup, and pointed those out at the site. Western Ridging, Eventual Greenland and Eastern Canada blocking should force very large Continental Arctic Highs back down into the United States, again. Two main storm tracks are likely, one through the lower Midwest, the other from the Gulf of Mexico up the East Coast. This type of pattern was common in the 1960s, the late 1970s, early 1980s and in 2009/10...so if you recall those years, you will get a stark reminder of the Wrath of Ol' Man Winter." love split flow - right set up and bam! lol - also liking that several mets have had a storm track around the gulf across southern ga/n fl off the coast. those tracks can be great for se storms (snow and ice if we have a wedge with a GOM storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 I remember those winters of the early 80s when I was a kid. Those were some fun times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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