Brick Tamland Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 lol. Not a big enough difference to quench my almost baseless fears. I am forever prejudiced against early season snow and will wish that it snows nowhere in the SE until after December 1. May this storm fall apart and evaporate into eternal virga. Or this could just be a preview of bigger things to come this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Go home weather, you're drunk: It's actually not out of the realm of possibility as there have been a few runs of the nam/gfs that have showed that it's actually possible that some snow could at least mix in at times under any areas of decent precipitation. Looks like if it happened it would be a fairly narrow window for it happening saturday morning, and over a rather small area where the coldest boundary layer conditions meet up with the coldest air aloft before it warms up too much. And your area looks as good as any. The soundings below are around (just south and east of charlotte). besides the obvious temps, dewpoints/wetbulbs on the gfs show they it could be low enough to allow for potentially enough cooling for rain to mix with snow for a little while Of course it's really early for this and climo/odds are obviously against it but imo the chances are not zero that snow will mix in somewhere over central/west central nc to the eastern upstate/northeast of columbia. It's hard to say exactly what the chances are right now since the temps are so marginal and the nam/gfs are shifting around exactly where the best precip and cold temps overlap. There is only a very brief 2 or 3 hour window when it could happen, roughly between 12z and 15z sat. Hopefully someone will see one or two flakes somewhere. gfs PRES HGHT TEMP DWPT RELH MIXR DRCT SKNT TWTB TVRT THTA THTE THTV 983.7 198 2.4 -1.9 73 3.4 283 11 0.8 3.0 276.9 286.4 277.4 975.0 270 2.2 -3.1 68 3.1 291 17 0.2 2.7 277.3 286.1 277.8 950.0 479 0.8 -4.7 67 2.9 307 28 -1.2 1.2 277.9 286.1 278.4 925.0 693 -0.8 -6.1 67 2.6 319 37 -2.6 -0.3 278.5 286.1 279.0 900.0 911 -1.8 -7.8 64 2.4 326 45 -3.8 -1.5 279.6 286.5 280.0 850.0 1364 -2.9 -13.2 45 1.6 341 45 -6.0 -2.7 283.0 287.9 283.3 800.0 1843 -5.3 -13.9 51 1.6 356 30 -7.8 -5.1 285.4 290.4 285.7 750.0 2345 -9.8 -12.6 80 2.0 354 16 -10.6 -9.4 285.9 291.8 nam NAM Text Sounding | 15 UTC Sat 01 Nov 2014 | Latitude: 34.9457 | Longitude: -80.9719 PRES HGHT TEMP DWPT RELH MIXR DRCT SKNT TWTB TVRT THTA THTE THTV 987.7 181 3.3 1.1 85 4.2 326 13 2.4 4.1 277.5 289.2 278.2 975.0 286 1.8 0.4 90 4.0 330 18 1.3 2.5 277.0 288.2 277.7 950.0 495 -0.1 -0.5 97 3.9 333 24 -0.2 0.5 277.1 287.9 277.7 925.0 708 -1.5 -1.9 97 3.6 341 31 -1.6 -0.9 277.8 287.9 278.4 900.0 925 -2.5 -3.3 94 3.3 350 39 -2.8 -1.9 278.9 288.4 279.5 875.0 1149 -2.2 -2.4 98 3.7 8 38 -2.3 -1.6 281.5 292.0 282.1 850.0 1380 -1.5 -1.6 99 4.0 23 28 -1.5 -0.8 284.6 296.1 285.2 825.0 1617 -1.6 -1.8 99 4.1 39 17 -1.7 -1.0 286.8 298.7 287.6 800.0 1862 -2.7 -2.8 99 3.9 57 7 -2.7 -2.0 288.3 299.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 lol. Not a big enough difference to quench my almost baseless fears. I am forever prejudiced against early season snow and will wish that it snows nowhere in the SE until after December 1. May this storm fall apart and evaporate into eternal virga. It's the Oct hurricanes that produce winter storms is what we don't want. Early Nov 2009 had a powerful coastal which bode well for rest of that winter, outside of RDU :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 It's the Oct hurricanes that produce winter storms is what we don't want. Early Nov 2009 had a powerful coastal which bode well for rest of that winter, outside of RDU :-) Remember -- we did ok with this storm: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20100129/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Remember -- we did ok with this storm: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20100129/ It was a "climo" winter for us...I consider anything 90-110% climo. PGV and GSO were 200+%, when people just on either side of us are at 200+% and we are at "climo", then it's a sucktastic winter. Especially for as cold as that winter was, it sucked. But that's been the theme since that winter, I don't expect it to change. It's nice looking storm on the Euro for this weekend. I would be pumped if I was in the mountains! Was thinking of doing Tweetsie on Saturday but with the cold/snow we are bailing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 It was a "climo" winter for us...I consider anything 90-110% climo. PGV and GSO were 200+%, when people just on either side of us are at 200+% and we are at "climo", then it's a sucktastic winter. Especially for as cold as that winter was, it sucked. But that's been the theme since that winter, I don't expect it to change. Why? Because it's easier to be pessimistic, even if most of the signs point to it being a good winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Why? Because it's easier to be pessimistic, even if most of the signs point to it being a good winter? You know you will be the first one crying the blues when PGV is getting hammered again and you only get 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 You know you will be the first one crying the blues when PGV is getting hammered again and you only get 1". Ah, but that would be, pissomestic. An entirely different thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 You know you will be the first one crying the blues when PGV is getting hammered again and you only get 1". Yes, that would suck, but there's no reason to be pessimistic now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Ah, but that would be, pissomestic. An entirely different thing. True. Yes, that would suck, but there's no reason to be pessimistic now. Also true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Wow...the Euro REALLY digs that trough in the latest run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Yes, that would suck, but there's no reason to be pessimistic now. I think this winter will be great for the east, as was 09/10, 10/11 and 13/14. But, I think we are going to be fringed again with the great stuff, as we were in those 3 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Meanwhile, it's a really quiet day: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Wow...the Euro REALLY digs that trough in the latest run. 850 temps are cold: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014102912®ion=USA&var=TMP_850mb&hour=072 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Why are many of us so closely following the amazingly extensive Eurasian Oct. snowcover? Because of its apparent signficant correlation to a strong -AO in DJF, especially if there is El Nino. Why is a strong -AO in DJF so important for the SE US when there is El Nino? Consider these tidbits using KATL DJF since 1950-1 as a proxy for the inland SE in general: - A whopping 7 of 7 (100%) of Nino's with a sub -0.9 DJF AO were ~3 or more colder than normal (i.e., top 20 cold winter)!! - Only 2 of 14 (14%) of non-Nino's with a sub -0.9 DJF AO were ~3 or more colder than normal (1962-3 and 1978-9) - Only 1 of 14 (7%) of Nino's without a sub -0.9 DJF AO was ~3 or more colder than normal (1963-4) - Only 1 of 29 (3%) of non-Nino's without a sub -0.9 DJF AO was ~3 or more colder than normal (1981-2) So, the combo of El Nino and strong -AO tells us so much. Based on the very impressive Eurasian snowcover and the OPI, the chances for a strongly -AO are much higher than normal. Based on the current Nino 3.4 temp's, the solidly -SOI overall, and the ENSO models, a weak El Nino is quite likely. Also, weak to low end moderate El Nino's have been the coldest when accompanied by solid -AO. And that's not even taking into account the very high chance for a solid +PDO! I guess what I'm saying is that a DJF that is 3 or colder than average for much of the inland SE has actually become likely in my mind! By the way, 70% of cold KATL winters had above average wintry precip. overall. That is in contrast to only ~30% of mild winters and ~50% of near normal winters. So, the snowlovers/icelovers should consider that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I believe in 2011 we had a setup similar to this in March where it was 38 and snowing during the afternoon in CLT. Nothing stuck of course but it did snow. Given the thickness associated with this going with the NAM and EURO it's looking possible to see some flakes. Pretty amazing really. The bigger question I have now is with moisture associated with it. Seems pretty light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Except this will be Nov snow which is a good omen. so there will be no snow on Fri night ( Oct 31) ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 so there will be no snow on Fri night ( Oct 31) ? Nope, starts 0z Nov 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Just glad it is getting colder...down to 56 in my part of Atlanta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Wow the temp dropped quick.... 30 minutes ago it was 79 now it is 74.... We just had about 10 minutes of a mist drizzle... But that is a good drop for a quick shower.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Am I just imagining things, or are the 12z GFS @ 72hrs and the 18z NAM at 66 hrs similar in regards to some snow breaking out in the Triad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Posted in the mountain thread but is worthy of posting here too.. Mid winter type Euro ensemble support.. 12z ensemble accumulating snowfall members: Asheville: 43/50 members 15 with +2 inches Boone: 44/50 members 11 with +6 inches Franklin: 42/50 members 17 with +2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Posted in the mountain thread but is worthy of posting here too.. Mid winter type Euro ensemble support.. 12z ensemble accumulating snowfall members: Asheville: 43/50 members 15 with +2 inches Boone: 44/50 members 11 with +6 inches Franklin: 42/50 members 17 with +2 inches How far south do the members go for accumulating snowfall??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 How far south do the members go for accumulating snowfall??? Only the mountains have this type support. Most everywhere else has little to no support for accumulation. If you want to see heavy snow head up on the Blue Ridge Parkway Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 gfs at 66 looks good for some, not sure if anything makes it to the ground though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 gfs at 66 looks good for some, not sure if anything makes it to the ground though. Does that snow band include Horry County??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 What an interesting potential for this weekend. I think the mtns could do up to 4-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Even FFC is calling for a dusting in north Georgia THIS BRINGS MOISTURE TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN ADDITION TO COLD TEMPERATURES. NEW GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT IS CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THUS HAVE ADJUSTED THE LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING... IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH WITH THE MOISTURE TO SEE SOME SNOW WITH THE RAIN. GUIDANCE IS POINTING AT ACCUMULATION AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS... ALTHOUGH THE OUTLIERS SHOW JUST OVER AN INCH. OFFICIAL ACCUMULATION FORECAST IS ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD SLIGHTLY IF THE GUIDANCE AMOUNTS REMAIN CONSISTENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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