mackerel_sky Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Even our local fox Carolina channel mentions possible flurries and a snow shower in Greenville proper Sat morn! You can't usually get them to mention snow 1 day out in the middle of January , much less October! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 May get interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 GSP morning disco remains interested: FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO BETTERAGREEMENT ON A VERY ENERGETIC/COMPACT VORT MAX/CLOSED 500 MBLOW...DIVING SE THRU THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE00Z/29 GFS LOOKED VERY SIMILAR TO THE 12Z/ECMWF...TAKING THE LOWACRS THE NRN NC MTNS TO NEAR CHARLOTTE BY 12Z SATURDAY. PER THEWPC/S MODEL DISCUSSION...WITH HEIGHT ANOMALIES 5.5 STANDARDDEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL (CENTER OF 533-535 DAM) AND A 50-YEAR RETURNPERIOD. AT 850 MB...TEMPS PLUMMET TO -5 TO -8C UNDER THE UPPERLOW...WITH NW WINDS OF 40-55 KTS AND STRONG CAA. THE 00Z/29 ECMWFHAS BACKED OFF THIS A BIT...BUT STILL SHOWS VERY COLD TEMPS ANDSTRONG WINDS. DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE EXACT DEPTH ANDTRACK OF THE LOW...IT LOOKS LIKE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON APERIOD OF NW FLOW SNOW SHWRS AND WIND ADV TO HIGH WIND WARNING WINDSIN THE MTNS. WITH SO MUCH ENERGY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...PROBABLYWILL BE A FEW SHWRS OUTSIDE THE MTNS...ESP IN THE NC PIEDMONT FRIDAYNIGHT. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...THERE/S STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. BUTAT LEAST 1-3" IN THE USUAL NW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS LOOKSLIKELY...HEADING INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY/SREADING DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT SHUD BE COOLER FRIDAYNIGHT...AS STRONG CAA CRANKS UP. TEMPS IN THE 20S MTNS AND 30S BELOWABOUT 3500 FT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Nobody outside of the mountains will see accumulations, and doubtful they will see any flakes. It'll take a while for the low-levels to even get near freezing, probably after the storm is passed. This is November 1st we're talking here. It could be February 1st and I think you would say the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 It could be February 1st and I think you would say the same thing. Yes, only this time he will most likely be 100% correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 If it does snow this weekend... for the record so far this season Euro 1 GFS 0. GFS took some time to play catch up while Euro had it nailed down a week out. That is a valid point but look at last year... 11-12-13. Many places including Roxboro got near 60 midday only to have snow falling in the 30s by 4 pm. If the cold air is true as its showing it will be cold enough. Besides timing is near prefect with this. The s/w around MS,AL Friday afternoon working its way through morning hours mid day Sat through the Caroinas and VA. Nobody outside of the mountains will see accumulations, and doubtful they will see any flakes. It'll take a while for the low-levels to even get near freezing, probably after the storm is passed. This is November 1st we're talking here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Yes, only this time he will most likely be 100% correct. It is possible to get snow showers in the lower elevations if this kind of system materializes. BUT what is probable (if system materializes), is the lower elevations receive light rain with temps staying in the low to mid 40s. The probable solution would still be noteworthy for this time of year. **I actually do not want this system to directly effect us. I fear the cloudiness/winds could hamper our chances at getting the first freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 It's awesome how on the new NAM, the 850 line can make it all the way to northern Florida and off the coast down there, but it simply can't move into eastern NC. I love the NC warm bubble shield that, no matter where the upper low travels (north, south, east, west), always exists and cannot be overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 It looks like the latest NAM is better for areas outside of the mountains to get some token flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Nam was a weenie run for the mtns. But it's the Nam at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Nam was a weenie run for the mtns. But it's the Nam at 72 hours. Who would trust a 3 day model run.???..if it was a 24-36 hour run I would believe it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 This sucks... All I will be getting from this low is a bunch of cold wind ... High around ~60 with 20 mph winds.. Lows in the mid. To upper 30s (I am not going to complain on that).... I was hoping for some flurries... But this is October and still a lot of time left.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 12z GFS....hmmm...haven't looked at boundary temps yet... Hopefully Allan doesn't mind posting of his snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 It's awesome how on the new NAM, the 850 line can make it all the way to northern Florida and off the coast down there, but it simply can't move into eastern NC. I love the NC warm bubble shield that, no matter where the upper low travels (north, south, east, west), always exists and cannot be overcome. We're closer to the low pressure. It's Mother Nature's way of saying "No way you low elevation SE folk get snow this time of year". That's why I wouldn't mind if it developed away from us, allowing for more cold air to filter in (so we can get that long awaited freeze). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 GFS snowfall map shows a decent event for NC high country.. Maybe a few flakes making it to the piedmont. Didn't see packs posts above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Here you go CR: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_078_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=078&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141029+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 It's awesome how on the new NAM, the 850 line can make it all the way to northern Florida and off the coast down there, but it simply can't move into eastern NC. I love the NC warm bubble shield that, no matter where the upper low travels (north, south, east, west), always exists and cannot be overcome. What warm bubble shield? lol. Its not really bc of that imagery shield. Its the angle of the cold... Normally the cold filters in from the N/NW before a snow but very rare do you have a pattern that is so amped the cold air comes in from the S/SW. Not to mention such a strong ULL so far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 What warm bubble shield? lol. Its not really bc of that imagery shield. Its the angle of the cold... Normally the cold filters in from the N/NW before a snow but very rare do you have a pattern that is so amped the cold air comes in from the S/SW. Not to mention such a strong ULL so far south. Yeah, let us get the cold air first once in a while , jeez! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 How come nobody's posted the DGEX snow maps? I'm sure they are a real treat!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Did we really just have an overnight PBP for a storm in October?? Winter cancel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Go home weather, you're drunk: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Did we really just have an overnight PBP for a storm in October?? Winter cancel... I didn't see your analysis.. where was it posted? MBY looks to get flakes so the PBP was for the mountain folks. As a fellow Niner I would hope that you can respect that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I didn't see your analysis.. where was it posted? MBY looks to get flakes so the PBP was for the mountain folks. As a fellow Niner I would hope that you can respect that. No, sorry. Meant to reference my superstition of getting early October SE snow/big NE Noreaster = warm boring winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 No, sorry. Meant to reference my superstition of getting early October SE snow/big NE Noreaster = warm boring winter. Except this will be Nov snow which is a good omen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 No, sorry. Meant to reference my superstition of getting early October SE snow/big NE Noreaster = warm boring winter. This would occur after mid-night Friday, so we're good to go... Edit: You beat me Pack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 No, sorry. Meant to reference my superstition of getting early October SE snow/big NE Noreaster = warm boring winter. My fault.. Didn't mean to be rude. I hope people realize here that I am an eternal optimist and will always be upbeat about the models. I still think a few in the northern piedmont get a surprise flake or two from this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Except this will be Nov snow which is a good omen. We had snow last november around veterans day in Charlotte. If that means we can get a follow up, then, well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 This would occur after mid-night Friday, so we're good to go... Edit: You beat me Pack! ROFL As if a few hours would make a difference to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Here you go CR: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_078_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=078&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141029+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Thanks Falls! What warm bubble shield? lol. Its not really bc of that imagery shield. Its the angle of the cold... Normally the cold filters in from the N/NW before a snow but very rare do you have a pattern that is so amped the cold air comes in from the S/SW. Not to mention such a strong ULL so far south. You mean there's not really a shield? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Except this will be Nov snow which is a good omen. lol. Not a big enough difference to quench my almost baseless fears. I am forever prejudiced against early season snow and will wish that it snows nowhere in the SE until after December 1. May this storm fall apart and evaporate into eternal virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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