NRVwxfan. Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Latest post from Wxsouth......In all the years I've studied old maps in meteorology, I've never seen this. What the models are progging at the jetstream level is practically unprecendented. It takes the northern wave all the way from the Canadian Arctic Archipelago region and drops it all the way south to northeast Georgia, upper SC as a 2 Contoured-cutoff low. Amazing just to see it progged. Not sure if that's going to be right, but the European and GFS are trending toward that kind of "super amplified pattern". I won't be surprised to see snow flurries and snow showers accompany this feature late Friday night in much of eastern half of Tennessee, northern Alabama, Northern Ga and the Carolinas and southwest, southern Va on Saturday. By Saturday daytime, temps at the ground level will be in the 40's, so I'm leaning toward the better snow shower chances in the mountains and west of the mountains, but strange things have happened when upper lows cross this far south. : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 A very interesting forecast going into this weekend. Can I do a shameless plug? hahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Who would have thought the first " threat" of winter would start being discussed in October? Just the first of many, I hope!! I'm staying up for the Euro!! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 GSP even mentions " lower end accums of snow POSSIBLE for the foothills an NW piedmont of NC on Sat" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Thank goodness most of this potential intense cold is waiting til 11/1! I don't want my warm October to be meddled with. Has anyone studied analogs of SE November snows as related to the following winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Looks like I'll be just outside of the area to see some flakes this weekend. I might have to go up to the mountains though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Euro EPS is on board for possibly some flurries outside of the mountains if we get lucky. After that it's long and boring on the EPS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Thank goodness most of this potential intense cold is waiting til 11/1! I don't want my warm October to be meddled with. Has anyone studied analogs of SE November snows as related to the following winter? This isn't much to go on but I remember only 1 November with any real snow outside of the mountains and that was November of 2000. After a major bust in December with only light snow instead of the forecasted 6-12, the rest of that winter was mostly snowless outside of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 This isn't much to go on but I remember only 1 November with any real snow outside of the mountains and that was November of 2000. After a major bust in December with only light snow instead of the forecasted 6-12, the rest of that winter was mostly snowless outside of the mountains.I remember that horrible bust! We were under WSW for 6-12 and maybe got a dusting ! There were a few smaller rain/snow mix events around that time, but winter was over after that! I remember a dusting around Nov 9th in 1995, earliest I have ever personally seen a dusting here. It was slow after that till January, then all heck broken loose and there seemed to be an event every week in Jan and some brutal cold and lake effect snow off of lake Hartwell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Staying up for the GFS tonight lol I know toughy. Lets see if it keeps with the cut off idea. 0z NAM has a cut off moving over over WNC and into Upstate SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastatlwx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Staying up for the GFS tonight lol I know toughy. Lets see if it keeps with the cut off idea. 0z NAM has a cut off moving over over WNC and into Upstate SC. what time does gfs come out again? 2am est for 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 what time does gfs come out again? 2am est for 6z It's running right now, just waiting for it to get later in to the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 FFC is much warmer than BMX for the upcoming weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 High pressure coming in stronger meaning more cold air with stronger NW winds. Trough also looks to be somewhat broader. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Watching some Weathernation, they showed their " in-house" model , has what looks to be a trace-1 inch into extreme NGA mtns, looks like 1-3 near Asheville , and a swath of 3-6 on the highest peaks of NC mtns and TN mtns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 GFS cuts low off @ hr69. Keeps moving south @hr75 and snowing in parts of wnc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 534 thick cutoff overtop of WNC @ hr81 that is some cold air! This is getting good. Comma head type return starting to show up over WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 @hr 84 cut off low centered over Charlotte with thickness values of 534. Snow in WNC possibly making it into parts of the Piedmont. Moves off NC coast @hr 93. Timing is terrible for the eastern 1/3 of the state but with those thickness values I wouldn't be surprised to see a few flakes mixing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 A lot of detail still to be scrubbed out per this last run but the ingredients are there for a WNC snow and possibly flakes making it into the western half of the state. Moisture will be lacking due to the nature of the track and no gulf source but lets see how this plays out, some could be in for a little surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 A lot of detail still to be scrubbed out per this last run but the ingredients are there for a WNC snow and possibly flakes making it into the western half of the state. Moisture will be lacking due to the nature of the track and no gulf source but lets see how this plays out, some could be in for a little surprise. Will ground temps be an issue for the Carolinas ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Will ground temps be an issue for the Carolinas ?No, but sun angle will be a b---h! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Will ground temps be an issue for the Carolinas ? Yep ha it was 75-80 today in most areas, rates will struggle to overcome that. Most outside the mountains shouldn't see a lot of accumulation due to timing and ground temps. Unfavorable sun angle I could name a few more but hey we are tracking a legit storm in October so I will take what I can get. At least its not March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 No, but sun angle will be a b---h! Nah, the sun angle is about the same as it is in early February. Shouldn't be a huge issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Yep ha it was 75-80 today in most areas, rates will struggle to overcome that. Most outside the mountains shouldn't see a lot of accumulation due to timing and ground temps. Unfavorable sun angle I could name a few more but hey we are tracking a legit storm in October so I will take what I can get. At least its not March.Nobody outside of the mountains will see accumulations, and doubtful they will see any flakes. It'll take a while for the low-levels to even get near freezing, probably after the storm is passed. This is November 1st we're talking here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Nobody outside of the mountains will see accumulations, and doubtful they will see any flakes. It'll take a while for the low-levels to even get near freezing, probably after the storm is passed. This is November 1st we're talking here. I am not talking about Raleigh, mostly the northern piedmont. No snow for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Yep ha it was 75-80 today in most areas, rates will struggle to overcome that. Most outside the mountains shouldn't see a lot of accumulation due to timing and ground temps. Unfavorable sun angle I could name a few more but hey we are tracking a legit storm in October so I will take what I can get. At least its not March.Rate of snow trumps ground temp anyday, all day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 That Miller B low could do big things for our friends in New England if the timing of everything go perfectly. Holy cow. EDIT: NAM is pretty wild, too. Brought in a lot of energy digging into SE USA as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Euro last night was pretty "meh" even for the mountains. As with any phasing/dynamic storm devil will be in the details and since it's October we'll probably end up with just a lot of cold wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I put this in a mountain thread but maybe this is a better place... 850's are cold all the way past Atlanta on Saturday AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Euro last night was pretty "meh" even for the mountains. As with any phasing/dynamic storm devil will be in the details and since it's October we'll probably end up with just a lot of cold wind. Yeah Burg it was pretty meh but the ensemble has a lot more support for snow then the deterministic. 36/50 with accumulation at KAVL. Details still need to be fine tuned with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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