FallsLake Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Exactly what areas may see their first freeze next weekend ? Certainly not in Georgia. FFC has raised our temps big time.Primarily western and northern NC: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=10&model_dd=27&model_init_hh=06&fhour=150¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false But check out how low the dew points will be. Certainly these temps may be lower if we can get some clam clear conditions: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=10&model_dd=27&model_init_hh=06&fhour=150¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 As the 12z GFS comes in, it still shows a very nice Halloween for most across the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Temps according to the GFS on Saturday morning. They have pretty much stabilized after fluctuating quite a bit a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Temps and 850's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Still not much rain in much of the Carolinas or GA on the GFS out to 16 days. Hopefully that'll be wrong since tomorrow will make 2 weeks without a drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Exactly what areas may see their first freeze next weekend ? Certainly not in Georgia. FFC has raised our temps big time. I don't know about what the models say, but TWC has Sautrday at 55/30 in Durham and 56/31 on Sunday. Even has Fayetteville at 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 It is so warm that my driveway is wet from the temp difference between air and ground. Currently 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 I don't know about what the models say, but TWC has Sautrday at 55/30 in Durham and 56/31 on Sunday. Even has Fayetteville at 33. The 12z GFS, surface temps at hour 144: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=10&model_dd=27&model_init_hh=12&fhour=144¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false 12z GFS, dew point temps at hour 144: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=10&model_dd=27&model_init_hh=12&fhour=144¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false **looks like there could be some dew points in the teens in some places. I would say this would actually hurt the chances of frost but enhance the chance of a hard freeze (if there are calm clear conditions). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Still not much rain in much of the Carolinas or GA on the GFS out to 16 days. Hopefully that'll be wrong since tomorrow will make 2 weeks without a drop. Looks for some chances of rain in the 10 day range. I know this is far out, but looks like a boundary will be getting into SE. Surface ridge will be placed of East Coast funneling in some Gulf/Caribbean moisture. Some EPAC tropical activity will spread some upper level moisture NE across the Southern Plains and into the Southeast. So, it's not a completely dry forecast, but it will be over a week before rain chances return for most of the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Models finally locking down for Halloween weekend. Many people will see there first freeze! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The 18z GFS did take a great step in the right direction as far as rain goes. Hopefully the start of a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 0z GFS still shows the potential freeze for at least northern GA, the western Carolinas, through central and NE NC. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=10&model_dd=28&model_init_hh=00&fhour=132¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Dew points would be supportive of frost for a much larger area: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=10&model_dd=28&model_init_hh=00&fhour=132¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Edit: 6z pushes the 30 degree line down towards Atlanta: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=10&model_dd=28&model_init_hh=06&fhour=126¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Euro phases the systems and now give flakes back to most everyone in the mountains. 25/50 members support for KAVL and 30/50 members support this theory for Boone. Fun times ahead I believe for the mountain folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Euro phases the systems and now give flakes back to most everyone in the mountains. 25/50 members support for KAVL and 30/50 members support this theory for Boone. Fun times ahead I believe for the mountain folks. Yea I'm sure someone is going to hype the Euro based on the 850 maps and moisture for those outside the mountains but there really is very little chance. It's not nearly cold enough at the surface and the moisture associated with this outside of the mountains is abysmal. Honestly I have a hard time buying the mountains get much luck either. There needs to be a lot of moisture to overcome mediocre surface temps and a warm soil at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Yea I'm sure someone is going to hype the Euro based on the 850 maps and moisture for those outside the mountains but there really is very little chance. It's not nearly cold enough at the surface and the moisture associated with this outside of the mountains is abysmal. Honestly I have a hard time buying the mountains get much luck either. There needs to be a lot of moisture to overcome mediocre surface temps and a warm soil at this time of year. Yeah not expecting a ton here in the valleys maybe a slushy .5" but the higher elevation should do a little better since their soil temps are colder currently and upslope will be in their favor. Nonetheless, interesting to see the Euro bring this type solution back. Also, check out the long range Euro.. Mega cutoff low over LA @ hr240. That would be pretty interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Yeah not expecting a ton here in the valleys maybe a slushy .5" but the higher elevation should do a little better since their soil temps are colder currently and upslope will be in their favor. Nonetheless, interesting to see the Euro bring this type solution back. Also, check out the long range Euro.. Mega cutoff low over LA @ hr240. That would be pretty interesting to say the least. Upper level temps look kinda warm with that cut off...nothing wintry. But that's a monster cut off. But how many times have we been teased with that this year? I hope this isn't a sign of winter...teasing us with cut offs in the medium/long range only to trend north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 It also pulls in a fetch of tropical moisture from the EPAC. Could be a heavy rain potential regardless of whether it cuts off or not. Especially for Texas and into parts of the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Upper level temps look kinda warm with that cut off...nothing wintry. But that's a monster cut off. But how many times have we been teased with that this year? I hope this isn't a sign of winter...teasing us with cut offs in the medium/long range only to trend north and west. Uh...I'm glad you were able to distinguish that a system with a tropical connection is too warm for winter weather in the southeast in early November... That's a true split-flow system being portrayed on the end of the Euro run...with support from the Euro ensembles (control). All in all, what the models are showing is typical for early November southern stream events...too bad its at Day 10 rather than day 4-5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 AAM forecasted to plunge into early Nov, putting us into the La Nina like phases. Model responds with western trough, along with +AO. This could very well be typical of a Nino progression in the fall, but I haven't looked in detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 October temperature anomalies thus far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 October precipitation anomalies thus far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Uh...I'm glad you were able to distinguish that a system with a tropical connection is too warm for winter weather in the southeast in early November... That's a true split-flow system being portrayed on the end of the Euro run...with support from the Euro ensembles (control). All in all, what the models are showing is typical for early November southern stream events...too bad its at Day 10 rather than day 4-5... That split flow pattern you mentioned should prevent any significant cold shots at bay after this weekend's. Pattern heading into late next week should be quite zonal and warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 That split flow pattern you mentioned should prevent any significant cold shots at bay after this weekend's. Pattern heading into late next week should be quite zonal and warm. HORRIFYING... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 That split flow pattern you mentioned should prevent any significant cold shots at bay after this weekend's. Pattern heading into late next week should be quite zonal and warm. That map pretty much sums up this horrific fall. Nothing but teases of cold air followed by non-stop heat. I get the feeling this is one of those years Atlanta will not get their first freeze until December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Euro drops a nice cutoff again into the SE. 540 thickness on NC/SC line on Saturday. Cold rain though imo for most outside the mountains, maybe a switchover to end in a few spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Euro drops a nice cutoff again into the SE. 540 thickness on NC/SC line on Saturday. Cold rain though imo for most outside the mountains, maybe a switchover to end in a few spots. Snowing at Raleigh at 96!! Just not going to make it to the ground with the blazing surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Snowing at Raleigh at 96!! Just not going to make it to the ground with the blazing surface temps. It even has some crazy uncle support! Too bad surface temps will suck. High mountains of wnc could get a decent event though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Euro drops a nice cutoff again into the SE. 540 thickness on NC/SC line on Saturday. Cold rain though imo for most outside the mountains, maybe a switchover to end in a few spots. That -6 C 850 hPa temperature over Asheville is pretty crazy to see. I think we can get some flurries in the morning, especially with 29 degrees at surface at 96 HR, but we need some moisture making it to bottom of this dry valley to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 HORRIFYING... That map pretty much sums up this horrific fall. Nothing but teases of cold air followed by non-stop heat. I get the feeling this is one of those years Atlanta will not get their first freeze until December. Why is that so bad? It's not winter yet. Like WxSouth said the other day on facebook, enjoy the warm and dry days now while you can, because it's not going to be be here in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Snowing at Raleigh at 96!! Just not going to make it to the ground with the blazing surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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