Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Pretty decent discrepancy between the NAM and GFS through 84 hrs wrt precip amounts in the SE: NamGfs.jpg So the NAM gives less rain in GA and more rain in the Carolinas and the GFS gives more rain in GA and less in the Carolinas. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 ahhh....looks good Agreed, can't believe I am saying I am ready for cold weather.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 I am ready for fall. Best season I think when it comes to comfortable weather in NC. Then we get to head into winter and start getting excited about the possible snow and ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 Hmmmm from Brad P http://www.wcnc.com/story/weather/2014/09/05/carolina-coast-tropical-trouble/15104835/?utm_content=buffereb180&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer That would probably catch a lot of folks off-guard. Depends if it stayed offshore and was a weak TS then no biggie, if it is a Cat 3 that grazes the OBX then yeah but at best I think we are looking at a weak TS type system. However the model Brad uses in house did get it further east than most globals thus it looked a lot better than what the Euro/Nam etc have which is nothing but a low right on the coast moving north from Florida. If you read the main tropical thread you will see there is little to no chance of development and even if it does develop it may be a hybrid system. A couple of very knowledgeable posters pretty much shot down the idea of an organized system for many reasons, all listed in the main thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 If you read the main tropical thread you will see there is little to no chance of development and even if it does develop it may be a hybrid system. A couple of very knowledgeable posters pretty much shot down the idea of an organized system for many reasons, all listed in the main thread. I read it and agree with the overall threat being low, there is a rather loosely organized area of storms off the GA/FL coast that if they sustain could become more interesting and are far enough offshore to do something.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 I read it and agree with the overall threat being low, there is a rather loosely organized area of storms off the GA/FL coast that if they sustain could become more interesting and are far enough offshore to do something.. wxmx and Kory really know their stuff. When they start talking tropical I listen, it sounds like you do too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 This radar loop is what has my attention, I guess we will see, it most likely is nothing but it could also be the beginnings of a system off the immediate SE coast.... http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=JAX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 This radar loop is what has my attention, I guess we will see, it most likely is nothing but it could also be the beginnings of a system off the immediate SE coast.... http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=JAX I'm really baffled at what you are looking at. The NHC doesn't even classify this as a disturbance and didn't even give it a lemon at 0%. This literally has no chance of development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjunkie Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 I am ready for fall. Best season I think when it comes to comfortable weather in NC. Then we get to head into winter and start getting excited about the possible snow and ice. I'm right there with you man. I'm sick of summer. I just hope next weekend's front is the real deal. This is the time of year i miss being further North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Agreed, can't believe I am saying I am ready for cold weather.... I love how the entire eastern half of the US is in the blue except for most of GA and FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Both the 0z and 6z NAM are still bullish on rainfall over NC. The GFS looks pretty good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Very little rain for upstate SC though. Also our cool down for next week is slowly being pulled back from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 The new NAM is pretty wet from about Hwy 1 east and very wet for the coastal plain, through 84 hrs. The 12z GFS for the same time period shows a laughable 4-5" area over Wake Co. and a substantial amounts around that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Very little rain for upstate SC though. Also our cool down for next week is slowly being pulled back from. Ho Hum. I don't think I have ever seen you satisfied. You live in the shadow of the mountains, downsloping isn't your friend and you are kind of in an area that doesn't see near the effects from the gulf (like the mountains) or the atlantic (like Ga coast, SC coast, & NC coast). I would suggest moving if you want more precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Very little rain for upstate SC though. Also our cool down for next week is slowly being pulled back from. You guys can have all the rain you want. I'm in the easley area and feel like I have had plenty of rain. I'm ready to dry out and get some crisp air in here. The big cool down next week has all but disappeared from our forecast, mid 80s and mid to upper 60s for lows with high humidigy isn't very helpful. And the mega front next weekend looks to stay west of mountains, like always. So no fall like weather in sight Darn it can be frustrating around here this time of year seeing everyone else see the first days of fall while our eternal summer continues! Ok rant over, I feel a little better now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Cold and clammy coming up for some of y'all .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY... RAINY...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ON THE WAY WITH A HYBRID CAD EVENT EXPECTED MONDAY. THE MAIN FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK SLOWLY NE ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. THE GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SEEM MOST REASONABLE AS THE OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO BE SLOW OUTLIERS. AN ABRUPT CHANGE FROM HOT/HUMID WEATHER OF THE PAST WEEK TO CLOUDY... MUCH COOLER... AND RAINY CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONT STALLS AND THE WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS OVER COASTAL SC... THEN MOVES NE ALONG THE COASTAL AREA OF NC... THE COASTAL FRONT ISENTROPIC LIFT OF THE WARM MOIST AIR UP AND OVER THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. POP/QPF SHOULD BE HIGHEST IN THE EAST... BUT STILL LIKELY IN THE FAR NW. A HYBRID DAMMING EVENT APPEARS LIKELY AS WELL IN OUR PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION. HIGH PRESSURE (1022 MB OR SO) IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PA/MD SUNDAY NIGHT... THEN DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE HIGH ARE STRONGLY FAVORABLE LOW CLOUDS... MUCH COOLER TEMPS... AND PERIODS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE IN THE PIEDMONT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BOTTOM LINE... WE WILL UNDERCUT MOS HIGHS MONDAY WHICH MAY END UP ONLY IN THE 60S IN THE PIEDMONT... AND RAISE POP TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. QPF OF 1-2 INCHES EAST AND BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 CAN BE EXPECTED FOR A STORM TOTAL WITH THE EVENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 Hopefully the precip coverage that we are going to see today/tomorrow is a prelude to what we see this winter...with a 50 mile west shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 ^ It's amazing how the best precipitation always knows how to stay along and east of the I-95 corridor, Pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 ^ It's amazing how the best precipitation always knows how to stay along and east of the I-95 corridor, Pack.That map is clearly wrong because it has Lake City Florida in the 0.01 inch zone and me in the 2 inch zone. Right now it is sunny and Lake City is still raining with totals upwards of 14 inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 ^ It's amazing how the best precipitation always knows how to stay along and east of the I-95 corridor, Pack. It has been like that all summer. I hope it doesn't continue into winter and further east gets more snow than Raleigh like last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 It has been like that all summer. I hope it doesn't continue into winter and further east gets more snow than Raleigh like last winter. Well, according to The Old Farmers Almanac.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 The GFS Ensemble is showing a nice period of cooler temperatures starting next weekend (9-13) and lasting through the following week (9-15). The GFS Ensemble actually keeps the cooler temperatures through the 10 day period from 9-12 through 9-22. All of this implies that the western ridge holds strong and the GFS is not overestimating its strength. If the ridge is weaker than modeled, then the temperatures will not be as cooled as modeled. If the ridge is stronger than modeled, then the temperature will be cooler than modeled. Many different factors can go into determining the ultimate strength of the western ridge, but it really depends on how strong the low pressure near Alaska is. Regardless, I am looking forward to some cooler air here in the southeast. It's about time for the first good cool air mass to build in. Just a little interesting note: The 540 line comes down into the Great Lakes area on the GFS this weekend. Just a few more months until the 540 line begins making its way into the southeast (hopefully)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 Flash Flood Watch up: Flash Flood WatchFLOOD WATCHNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC949 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2014...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT....DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL ENHANCE THEPOTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKSSLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THISAFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.NCZ007>011-024>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089-091200-/O.NEW.KRAH.FF.A.0004.140908T1400Z-140909T1200Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR...HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON...NASHVILLE...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT...SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON...SELMA...BENSON...WILSON...SOUTHERN PINES...PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD...DUNN...ERWIN...ANGIER...LILLINGTON...GOLDSBORO...ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET...EAST ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...ROCKFISH...SILVER CITY...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON949 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2014...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CHATHAM...CUMBERLAND... DURHAM...EDGECOMBE...FRANKLIN...GRANVILLE...HALIFAX... HARNETT...HOKE...JOHNSTON...LEE...MOORE...NASH...ORANGE... PERSON...RICHMOND...SAMPSON...SCOTLAND...VANCE...WAKE... WARREN...WAYNE AND WILSON.* THROUGH 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING* DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AREFAVORABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A DANGEROUS ANDPOTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. RESIDENTS OF CENTRALNORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BEPREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.$$VINCENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 Western ridge, eastern trough idea looks good right now for 6-10 day period...should be a nice early fall-like airmass early next week if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 The 18z GFS says CLT struggles to get to 60 for the Panthers first home game this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 From Thursday through Monday is looking damp as well as cool. The perfect first taste of fall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 The 6z GFS takes our cool weekend away.and leaves us warm to hot both days and very humid too. Summer rolls on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 The 6z GFS takes our cool weekend away.and leaves us warm to hot both days and very humid too. Summer rolls on. The setup(on 6z) does look warmer and more wet. But, I bet as we get closer the models start showing more of a CAD setting up. The cool air is not far off to the west and north and this kind of setup has provided CADs for the last few months (or can I say the last year). Edit: Last night GFS shows the CAD: http://www.aos.wisc.edu/weatherdata/avn/avn_crhlia_h96.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 The 6z GFS takes our cool weekend away.and leaves us warm to hot both days and very humid too. Summer rolls on. No one can find a glimmer of despair in a rainbow better than our man, jshetley. Keepin' it real... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 The 6z GFS takes our cool weekend away.and leaves us warm to hot both days and very humid too. Summer rolls on.already in mid season form! Fall cancel, winter cancel too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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