Cold Rain Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Terrible for the Trick-or-Treaters, if the 0z GFS is correct. 24 hour precip totals for Nov1st: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_216_precip_p24.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=precip_p24&fhr=216&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141023+00+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Edit: About the same for the 6z Not too worried yet. At that range, the GFS will shift around a ton. It'll probably be dry and warm. Let's hope. I suspect that the models will be less valuable at that range than usual with all of the missing data issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Terrible for the Trick-or-Treaters, if the 0z GFS is correct. 24 hour precip totals for Nov1st: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_216_precip_p24.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=precip_p24&fhr=216&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141023+00+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Edit: About the same for the 6z I really hope that doesn't happen. Of course, it would rain on Halloween after being so dry lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 I really hope that doesn't happen. Of course, it would rain on Halloween after being so dry lately.12z still has the heavy preip for Halloween; although it did shift it north a little. But these kind of details are useless at this rang. The main thing is the model still sees a precipitation event around Halloween. One good thing is the push of cold air into the SE after the event: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=216ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_216_850_temp_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141023+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Eh, maybe the GFS isn't out to lunch after all. Euro is showing a big trough in the East and a pretty good cold shot on the 12z. EPO is forecasted to go negative for the first week in November. Corresponds pretty well with the forecasted trough in the East in the 7-10 day frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Still in the fantasy time period but this would be the end of the growing season for most(12 GFS at day 11): http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=10&model_dd=23&model_init_hh=12&fhour=264¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Just imagine the solutions we'll see when these models get their satellite data back: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 A few Euro ensemble members showing accumulating snowfall for KAVL, Boone, Franklin and even 1 member in Winston & Reidsville. Let the winter model watching begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 From what I understand, the satellite is now up and running and their data was fed into the 12z runs of the models. I'm not completely sure through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 The Euro drops the hammer just like the GFS has been around the 1st of November. Interesting but we shall see if it evolves into anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 I'm ready to drop the Hammer!looks warm this weekend though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 The 18z GFS says goodbye to the freeze except in parts of NC. The 30 degree line is on the NC and VA border. Temps no lower than 35 anywhere in SC through day 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 The 18z GFS says goodbye to the freeze except in parts of NC. The 30 degree line is on the NC and VA border. Temps no lower than 35 anywhere in SC through day 16.That's perfectly fine with me. I don't need the cold or deep troughs in early November , I would be fine if we didnt get a freeze until Mid December, save the cold for when it could possibly do some good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 That's perfectly fine with me. I don't need the cold or deep troughs in early November , I would be fine if we didnt get a freeze until Mid December, save the cold for when it could possibly do some good! mid December would 've extremely late for the first freeze wouldn't it ? Here in Georgia our average first freeze is in early November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machetemoonlight Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 What is the interest rate for cold air in Nature's savings account? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Long range GFS is kicking up the subtropical jet once we get into November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 The 18z GFS has a tamer look for Halloween. Some precip for eastern NC but doesn't look bad. As others have stated the possible freeze/frost has also been tempered. Interior NC may have a chance at day 8/9 but we'll see. I will say this has been some beautiful weather; can't beat fall weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 I posted this over on the mountain thread, bu this is the GFS on Saturday 8 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 I posted this over on the mountain thread, bu this is the GFS on Saturday 8 AM sat_nov_1_temps_se.jpg Thanks for posting Steve, that would be 1 degree off the record for Nov 1st in Asheville (22 degrees) set in 1890! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 I sure hope it comes true....Thanks Steve.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 I'm absolutely shocked no one has mentioned this mornings Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 I'm absolutely shocked no one has mentioned this mornings Euro? Ahh...the fantasy winter storms in the long range. You know winter is getting close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 I'm absolutely shocked no one has mentioned this mornings Euro? Big cut-off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 I'm absolutely shocked no one has mentioned this mornings Euro?Yeah, I heard. I'm use to the GFS to have all the fantasy snow first! Maybe theEuro is on to something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 It shows blocking on both sides too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Remember, the Euro likes cutting off these ULLs too far SE. They tend to trend more north and west in time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 It shows blocking on both sides too. Yep. It's a thing of beauty. Here's hour 216 on the E-Wall maps: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 I'm absolutely shocked no one has mentioned this mornings Euro? From the mountain thread, Met85 and I have been discussing it for a while. Euro Ensemble # of accumulating snowfall members for next Saturday morning: KTBN (Boone): 10/50 members KAVL (Asheville): 6/50 members K1H5 (Frankiln): 10/50 members All are up from this AM run but still a ways out. A beautiful cold morning with a low of 27 degrees! Well it looks like this weekend will take the cake to say for one of the best weekends of October. Get out and enjoy it. The Euro and the GFS are way apart on anything for next weekend. The Euro has a cutoff right in the SE and that would surly bring us an early snow but I do not buy it and the GFS is a glancing blow with most of the cold staying further north. I have a feeling we maybe seeing a lot of back and forth until the middle of next week. Wow big hop this morning in accumulating snowfall members on the Euro Ensemble for WNC: KAVL: 18 members and 1 with +8" hahaha KTBN: 24 members and 6 are 6"+ Macon: 19 members and 2 with +8" ETA: Euro deterministic gives KAVL 14" by Tuesday.... I think it might be hung over from a night out last night. These are mid winter type graphs I am looking at and it isn't even November! Yep Met lots of disparity. You guys can probably guess that I am partial to the Euro (mainly because it has more pretty things to look at and its long range verification lol) but there is a large discrepancy between what it and the GFS currently see for next week. I am just glad we are already model watching regardless of how next weekend pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Even if you can get that storm to cut off directly over the apps that's a potential snow for the high peaks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 12z GFS coming in colder with a stronger high pressure initally (1037mb) over Iowa/Minnesota instead of the great lakes but then the high weakens a bit whereas previous runs keep it stronger but it still centered 200 miles further south. Looks like a decent NWFS for the NC mountains. Has a nice snowstorm for the North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Even if you can get that storm to cut off directly over the apps that's a potential snow for the high peaks Did you mean to include the word only at the end of that statement, Marion? Because if the Euro is showing snowfall for Asheville and Boone, then of course it would also be snowing at the high peaks. The ground temps would be fine for the mountain cities, so are you suggesting that the upper air properties would only support snowfall for the highest of the mountain peaks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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