Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 More yuck! Anywhere near 80 on Halloween is a total torch in my book. 80s belong from May to Sept, not the end of Oct! We have yet to have a good period with highs in the 60s, only a few scattered days. Even this week we"'re mid to upper seventies, still ten degrees to high. Oh well, at least it pretty and there's NO RAIN!! I'm sure the dewpoints will be very comfortable . I doubt it will be 80 with dewpoints in the 70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 I posted about this a couple days ago as well, after my trip to mount Mitchell, very bland color except for a couple isolated spots. Around the upstate, there is almost no color except for some of the maples. But in my experience I think it has been too WET, NOT TOO DRY. some areas have been too wet, but other areas have been very dry. Summer was dry here and we had 1/2" of rain in September. One of the driest September's on record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 some areas have been too wet, but other areas have been very dry. Summer was dry here and we had 1/2" of rain in September. One of the driest September's on record It IS amazing how variable the rain seems to have been. I'm just glad my yard can finally dry out some now. As for dew points, I'm sure they won't be high, but still Halloween should at least be chilly. 80 with any dew point is just too high for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 It IS amazing how variable the rain seems to have been. I'm just glad my yard can finally dry out some now. As for dew points, I'm sure they won't be high, but still Halloween should at least be chilly. 80 with any dew opoint is just too high for this time of year. yeah its a little silly how variable the weather can be, particularly in summer. I mean there have been times when I was in a severe drought and areas 10 miles away had a surplus of rain and had flooding every week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 I've noticed the lack of color too. We're not at peak for this area yet, but I can already tell it's not going to be that good. The leaves that are falling off now are not very bright. They're dull with a lot of brown and green still on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 I've noticed the lack of color too. We're not at peak for this area yet, but I can already tell it's not going to be that good. The leaves that are falling off now are not very bright. They're dull with a lot of brown and green still on them. ditto here - some of the maples turned sort of maroonish then started falling. a lot have leaves on the top gone and still green on the bottom. otherwise, looks like a lot of leaves are starting to turn color then brown and fall off. other than last week with a ton of rain, the last couple of months here have been pretty dry. normally leaves arent peak until late oct/early novemberish but at this rate there may not be many leaves left by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 ditto here - some of the maples turned sort of maroonish then started falling. a lot have leaves on the top gone and still green on the bottom. otherwise, looks like a lot of leaves are starting to turn color then brown and fall off. other than last week with a ton of rain, the last couple of months here have been pretty dry. normally leaves arent peak until late oct/early novemberish but at this rate there may not be many leaves left by then I thought for best color, you needed a wet summer and then a drier fall. I may have that completely wrong though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 I've noticed the lack of color too. We're not at peak for this area yet, but I can already tell it's not going to be that good. The leaves that are falling off now are not very bright. They're dull with a lot of brown and green still on them.Lackluster here at best! I guess dry summer + dry fall = bad color! That's what I had and that's how the leaves look! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 I thought for best color, you needed a wet summer and then a drier fall. I may have that completely wrong though!I think you are right, summer moisture helps, then a cool crisp fall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 I thought for best color, you needed a wet summer and then a drier fall. I may have that completely wrong though! I think you are correct...wet summer then dry, cool fall with chilly nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Maybe its just me but the fall foliage doesn't seem overly impressive to me so far. I figured with the dry summer and dry fall that would speed the process of the leaves changing colors but I guess it doesn't work that way. I also thought that cool nights and warm sunny days would help but that doesn't seem to be the case either. I just came to Atlanta today and noticed that most of the leaves are still green. I attribute this to the mostly warm first half of October. Gosh, I hope Tony's moles don't decide after 14 long months to now pay me a visit in Savannah now that I'm not there. That would figure as those moles are quite mischievous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 I know fall is the " dry" season around here, but it's been 7 days without a drop here, and none in sight for atleast the next 10 days +, is this normal, 2-3 weeks without a drop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 I know fall is the " dry" season around here, but it's been 7 days without a drop here, and none in sight for atleast the next 10 days +, is this normal, 2-3 weeks without a drop? Yep, pretty common in fall in the SE. Well, on second thought, three weeks without a drop wouldn't be common Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 We basically went from mid Sept until after Thanksgiving in 2001 with very little precip where I am. I have saw several 3 to even 4 or 5 week stretches of rainless weather this time of year, so I'd say 2-3 weeks very little is common at least in some parts of the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 I really don't mind the dry weather to be honest. I know most people find it rather boring, but i'm enjoying the warm, sunny days and cool nights. With a lot of people forecasting a wet winter, we may be longing for some dry weather come January or February so I will enjoy it while it lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 I've noticed the lack of color too. We're not at peak for this area yet, but I can already tell it's not going to be that good. The leaves that are falling off now are not very bright. They're dull with a lot of brown and green still on them. Even here, in Asheville, there are way too many green for this time of year. Maples are very bright and at peak around here, but other trees are very meh and slow to change over. Depends on what temps you define a torch. For late October, is mid to upper 70s to near 80 daytime highs torchy to you? I personally like those temps, it's very subjective. Could be worse, the Gulf Coast looks like it could reach the mid 80s. I can recall the fact last October was pretty warm in Central NC when I went back home for Halloween. I think temps were in high-70s, but sun was brutal when I was outside exercising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 torch in late October = beautiful weather. Getting cold weather doesn't do much good this time of year anyway. If its not going to snow it might as well be warm and sunny ( with low dewpoints of course ) Hey, that's my line! I really don't mind the dry weather to be honest. I know most people find it rather boring, but i'm enjoying the warm, sunny days and cool nights. With a lot of people forecasting a wet winter, we may be longing for some dry weather come January or February so I will enjoy it while it lasts. I think the warm and dry weather now is good for bringing an exciting winter. The summer was pretty wet and not as hot as usual here. Now we get the warm and dry period. And then the pendulum swings back the other way for a wild winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 The 6z GFS has a storm off the SC coast the day before Halloween. This is day 7/8 so still not sure if it will verify. Knowing my/our luck this will be correct but will be 100 miles further west. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_192_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=192&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141022+06+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 The 6z GFS has a storm off the SC coast the day before Halloween. This is day 7/8 so still not sure if it will verify. Knowing my/our luck this will be correct but will be 100 miles further west. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_192_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=192&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141022+06+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 The 0Z had that inland, moving up through the SE. Basically, both the 0Z and 6Z have a tropical system moving north between the Yucatan and Cuba into the Gulf. The 0Z moves it basically NNE through the Gulf and into the SE, bringing lots of rain. The 6Z has a trough that kicks it farther east off the coast and moves it away. It probably won't be there anyway, as the GFS has been abysmal in predicting tropical systems in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 The 0Z had that inland, moving up through the SE. Basically, both the 0Z and 6Z have a tropical system moving north between the Yucatan and Cuba into the Gulf. The 0Z moves it basically NNE through the Gulf and into the SE, bringing lots of rain. The 6Z has a trough that kicks it farther east off the coast and moves it away. It probably won't be there anyway, as the GFS has been abysmal in predicting tropical systems in the LR.It's been showing something at day 12 or so for the last month (as Larry stated). This is now day 8, so it has moved closer. Hopefully it is not (finally) on to something. But as you stated this is tropical so that would make it even more difficult to predict track wide (if it develops). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Even here, in Asheville, there are way too many green for this time of year. Maples are very bright and at peak around here, but other trees are very meh and slow to change over. I can recall the fact last October was pretty warm in Central NC when I went back home for Halloween. I think temps were in high-70s, but sun was brutal when I was outside exercising. How can the sun be brutal at the end of October in North Carolina ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 How can the sun be brutal at the end of October in North Carolina ? SW flow. It's a brutal thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 How can the sun be brutal at the end of October in North Carolina ? If you stare at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Interesting that rain has been so variable yet the leaves suck everywhere. Perhaps rain doesn't have as much to with it as we all think. In looking at Oct temps so far, I think the lack of any sustained cool morning temps is having a big effect on the poor coloring. For GSP , prior to the 19th, there were only 4 mornings with lows below 50, and only two below 45!! I have always read we need temps about 45 or below consistently to get good cor change. From Oct 7-16, the lows were 54, 59, 56, 61,67, 57, 57, 60, 51, and 51. That's certainly not going to prompt any color changes. The trees still think it's Sept! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Saw this posted in the main thread and would explain somewhat the major swings from run to run. GFS and NAM aren't recieving satellite data currently. http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/10/22/weather-service-stops-receiving-satellite-data-issues-warning-about-forecast-reliability/?hpid=z5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Interesting that rain has been so variable yet the leaves suck everywhere. Perhaps rain doesn't have as much to with it as we all think. In looking at Oct temps so far, I think the lack of any sustained cool morning temps is having a big effect on the poor coloring. For GSP , prior to the 19th, there were only 4 mornings with lows below 50, and only two below 45!! I have always read we need temps about 45 or below consistently to get good cor change. From Oct 7-16, the lows were 54, 59, 56, 61,67, 57, 57, 60, 51, and 51. That's certainly not going to prompt any color changes. The trees still think it's Sept! I've always thought it had more to do with the amount of sunlight than anything else, although I realize temps play a part as well. In terms of temps, I've always thought that mild, sunny days and cool nights (50 and below) helped in changing the color. Anyway, I've never seen such a lack of color on Oct 22 that I can recall, although my memory is admittedly pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 I've always thought it had more to do with the amount of sunlight than anything else, although I realize temps play a part as well. In terms of temps, I've always thought that mild, sunny days and cool nights (50 and below) helped in changing the color. Anyway, I've never seen such a lack of color on Oct 22 that I can recall, although my memory is admittedly pretty bad.The leaves are colored all year round, they are just covered up by the chlorophyll , that's the green color and what they need to turn sugar into food. The fall color is triggered by the losing of chlorophyll as they are in the process of going into dormancy , and they will not need " food"! The length of daylight is a trigger as well as cooler temperatures. The best conditions are actually cool crisp nights and bright sunny days for the best color production. I have a big Bradford pear in my front yard and the color and timing of leaf change is very variable. I have had the leaves change and drop by the end of October and I have had green leaves as late as thanksgiving ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 I'm seeing the foliage change to some oranges/yellows the past week or so, but it's still sparse for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Terrible for the Trick-or-Treaters, if the 0z GFS is correct. 24 hour precip totals for Nov1st: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_216_precip_p24.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=precip_p24&fhr=216&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141023+00+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Edit: About the same for the 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 10 days out, but could this (finally) be our first SE widespread freeze/frost: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=10&model_dd=23&model_init_hh=00&fhour=252¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Edit: Average first freeze for NC: https://www.wral.com/asset/weather/2009/10/19/6241580/Central_North_Carolina_Fall_Frosts_and_Freezes.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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