FallsLake Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Just looking at the 6z GFS, we may not see our first widespread freeze/frost until sometime in November. This is not unusual but it would be a little later than normal for many of us. Just for fun this is day 16, it would indicate no real cold air over the SE but a lot of cold air building in Canada. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=10&model_dd=20&model_init_hh=06&fhour=384¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Looks very dry over the area for a good while. Dry and boring. This is Brick Tamland weather right here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Looks very dry over the area for a good while. Dry and boring. This is Brick Tamland weather right here! He'll be complaining of the lack of rain in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 He'll be complaining of the lack of rain in a few days. Yeah def, especially if someone else is getting rain. The 12z GFS brings that tropical system from the Gulf to off the SE coast to back into the SE later in the run. I'm SURE it's going to be right THIS time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Hmmm I had to go back and look and sure enough back on Oct 7th Wow posted this Noreaster.gif And I commented that it was a hell of a storm showing up off VA..... Big storm showing up still on the models. This will be a multi-day massive Nor'easter for our NE friends. The last time this happened in late October we ended up with a crapfest of a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Yeah def, especially if someone else is getting rain. The 12z GFS brings that tropical system from the Gulf to off the SE coast to back into the SE later in the run. I'm SURE it's going to be right THIS time. Drowns RAH area with .14"!!! We'll be needing that rain by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Big storm showing up still on the models. This will be a multi-day massive Nor'easter for our NE friends. The last time this happened in late October we ended up with a crapfest of a winter. Haha! At 1000 mb? I think we'll be fine with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Haha! At 1000 mb? I think we'll be fine with this one. That storm is going to be a big deal, flooding rains likely as it will just sit and spin off the NE coast for days and days. Sure it won't deepen into a 970mb monster but it is going to be a big storm, possibly pattern changing storm. Wind, Rain and maybe a stray flake or two of snow in the highest elevations of the NE. Shades of the last time this happened is coming to mind where we had a torchfest for a winter that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 That storm is going to be a big deal, flooding rains likely as it will just sit and spin off the NE coast for days and days. Sure it won't deepen into a 970mb monster but it is going to be a big storm, possibly pattern changing storm. Wind, Rain and maybe a stray flake or two of snow in the highest elevations of the NE. Shades of the last time this happened is coming to mind where we had a torchfest for a winter that year.Of course we're not sure about the "Big" storm theory, but I wonder if this actually had some credence would there be a specific time period that you would not want to see a "Big" storm. A time period kind of like the snow cover time period where specific weeks are more important than others. ***A storm 10 days before Halloween is bad but right after is not a problem. Sounds laughable but that's the kind of talk going on about snow cover (week 41 is better than week 42 or something like that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Of course we're not sure about the "Big" storm theory, but I wonder if this actually had some credence would there be a specific time period that you would not want to see a "Big" storm. A time period kind of like the snow cover time period where specific weeks are more important than others. ***A storm 10 days before Halloween is bad but right after is not a problem. Sounds laughable but that's the kind of talk going on about snow cover (week 41 is better than week 42 or something like that). It seems like there is a new index or pattern index released all of the time. I don't buy into many of them, the OPI (newest one) sounds like a stretch. The SAI (snowcover one) seems like it has some possible credence to it. My post was basically in jest. I don't think there is a cause and effect with October Nor'easters but I'm sure some will buy into it in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 It seems like there is a new index or pattern index released all of the time. I don't buy into many of them, the OPI (newest one) sounds like a stretch. The SAI (snowcover one) seems like it has some possible credence to it. My post was basically in jest. I don't think there is a cause and effect with October Nor'easters but I'm sure some will buy into it in a heartbeat.There probably is some kind or correlation; whereas a specific pattern will increase the likelihood of east coast storms. That being said, one storm would not dictate a specific pattern. An example is, you can have a big winter storm in an overall crappy winter pattern. So maybe we get a big storm but the overall pattern is still supportive of a good winter pattern. ***and if October patterns correlate to upcoming winter patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 It seems like there is a new index or pattern index released all of the time. I don't buy into many of them, the OPI (newest one) sounds like a stretch. The SAI (snowcover one) seems like it has some possible credence to it. My post was basically in jest. I don't think there is a cause and effect with October Nor'easters but I'm sure some will buy into it in a heartbeat. I thought you were probably messing around. I agree that it will bring some wind and rain and flooding, but if there is any correlation between big October storms and torchy winters, I wouldn't bet on this one being one to worry much about. Sandy was a different story. But yeah, this will be a slow mover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Big storm showing up still on the models. This will be a multi-day massive Nor'easter for our NE friends. The last time this happened in late October we ended up with a crapfest of a winter.My winters are always a crapfest ! Some more craptastic and some less. If I wanted non crapfest, I would move to Montana . This is going to be aloooooong stretch of dry, and with low dp's , could be getting some high fire danger in the next 10 days+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 20, 2014 Author Share Posted October 20, 2014 There probably is some kind or correlation; whereas a specific pattern will increase the likelihood of east coast storms. That being said, one storm would not dictate a specific pattern. An example is, you can have a big winter storm in an overall crappy winter pattern. So maybe we get a big storm but the overall pattern is still supportive of a good winter pattern. ***and if October patterns correlate to upcoming winter patterns. Correlation does not imply causation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 Correlation does not imply causation. However, a strong enough correlation can still be a very valuable forecasting tool, of course. I'm constantly looking for good correlations for this reason and they've seem to have paid off more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 However, a strong enough correlation can still be a very valuable forecasting tool, of course. I'm constantly looking for good correlations for this reason and they've seem to have paid off more often than not. By the way, you should make a list of all of the things we should be rooting for. Your stats and analysis are second to none, but I'm having trouble trying to remember how many msk we need for SCE by what date and how much -AO we need by what date and how much we want the temp to average above normal by 10/31 and how much niño we need by when, etc. We need an easier way to track all these things. I think we're doing pretty well now, but I'm not 100% sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Looks very dry over the area for a good while. Dry and boring. This is Brick Tamland weather right here! Sure is. This is awesome fall weather. Of course we have to look out for the severe chance in November we always seem to get here around Thanksgiving. But it can stay dry and calm all the way up to winter, and then let the pendulum swing back the other way for a wild winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Correlation does not imply causation.It does, in fact, imply causation, but that doesn't mean that there actually causation. The actual phrase is "correlation is not causation", which is true. Then again, if you get philosophical, what is causation but correlation with no apparent confounding mechanisms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 21, 2014 Author Share Posted October 21, 2014 However, a strong enough correlation can still be a very valuable forecasting tool, of course. I'm constantly looking for good correlations for this reason and they've seem to have paid off more often than not. I know it is your hobby. Personally, I don't put much stock in it. Sample sizes are usually small and the huge number of variables, makes the influence of any one occurrence virtually impossible to measure beyond the simple correlation level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Looking at the GFS from last night and this morning, there is still no indication of our first widespread SE frost/freeze. We're not torching, but we're not freezing either. I would not be surprised if we have to wait until mid November to get the freeze; which could be dramatic because there is plenty of cold air building up in Canada. So (if we wait until mid Nov) many COULD see there first freezing night well below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Looking at the GFS from last night and this morning, there is still no indication of our first widespread SE frost/freeze. We're not torching, but we're not freezing either. I would not be surprised if we have to wait until mid November to get the freeze; which could be dramatic because there is plenty of cold air building up in Canada. So (if we wait until mid Nov) many COULD see there first freezing night well below freezing. Yep..with the EPO staying positive and the PNA going neutral or slightly negative, we shouldn't see any big troughs. Some signs point on the EPO going negative toward the the beginning of November, but that's quite far out. The models point at some ridging for the SE/East Coast for next week, especially with a -PNA. That's expected. Should bode from some lovely Halloween weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Looks like end of October = TORCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Looks like end of October = TORCH Depends on what temps you define a torch. For late October, is mid to upper 70s to near 80 daytime highs torchy to you? I personally like those temps, it's very subjective. Could be worse, the Gulf Coast looks like it could reach the mid 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Depends on what temps you define a torch. For late October, is mid to upper 70s to near 80 daytime highs torchy to you? I personally like those temps, it's very subjective. Could be worse, the Gulf Coast looks like it could reach the mid 80s.If we're going to have this pattern, this time of year is the perfect time to have it. **and just in case the "big" storm and warm October are real indicators then we're looking great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Depends on what temps you define a torch. For late October, is mid to upper 70s to near 80 daytime highs torchy to you? I personally like those temps, it's very subjective. Could be worse, the Gulf Coast looks like it could reach the mid 80s.80 at the end of Oct is torchy to me, but like you said , subjective. But if the warm October = good winter , then I'll take the torch to help out our winter prospects! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Well the 12z GFS does show cold/dry air (dew points in the 20s) finally making it into the SE at day 15. Even this would be boarder line to be able to get ground temps down to 32. This is way out in the fantasy time period but the only thing that would give it credence, is the time of year. Basically we would be due to get this type of air source (..eventually). So maybe November 5/6 time period for our first freeze/frost. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=10&model_dd=21&model_init_hh=12&fhour=360¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Maybe its just me but the fall foliage doesn't seem overly impressive to me so far. I figured with the dry summer and dry fall that would speed the process of the leaves changing colors but I guess it doesn't work that way. I also thought that cool nights and warm sunny days would help but that doesn't seem to be the case either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Looks like end of October = TORCH torch in late October = beautiful weather. Getting cold weather doesn't do much good this time of year anyway. If its not going to snow it might as well be warm and sunny ( with low dewpoints of course ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 More yuck! Anywhere near 80 on Halloween is a total torch in my book. 80s belong from May to Sept, not the end of Oct! We have yet to have a good period with highs in the 60s, only a few scattered days. Even this week we"'re mid to upper seventies, still ten degrees to high. Oh well, at least it pretty and there's NO RAIN!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Maybe its just me but the fall foliage doesn't seem overly impressive to me so far. I figured with the dry summer and dry fall that would speed the process of the leaves changing colors but I guess it doesn't work that way. I also thought that cool nights and warm sunny days would help but that doesn't seem to be the case either. I posted about this a couple days ago as well, after my trip to mount Mitchell, very bland color except for a couple isolated spots. Around the upstate, there is almost no color except for some of the maples. But in my experience I think it has been too WET, NOT TOO DRY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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