FallsLake Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Weather looks very variable and fallish over the next couple of weeks. Should see several cold fronts pass with warmer days ahead and cooler days behind, with the threat of showers every so often. There don't appear to be any big, anomalous systems like this one for a while, although the Euro wants to crank up a fairly decent storm off the NE coast toward the end of its run. Unfortunately, the Aleutian low is nowhere to be found in any of the guidance I looked at. In fact, the Euro builds a pretty big ridge in that area at the end of the run. The GOA low/trough is there, though. Looks fallish but I'm now looking for that first cold air mass that will bring a widespread SE frost/freeze. The 6z GFS does show some nice cool weather but nothing cold enough to drop temps to/near freezing. At this point everything is normal but if we go the next two weeks(to the 1st of Nov) without the freeze we'll start falling behind on norms. **but not really complaining, I definitely love nice fall weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Maybe I can finally turn the A/C off for good until next spring. No 80's in sight. Maybe some upper 70s though, but I can handle that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Maybe I can finally turn the A/C off for good until next spring. No 80's in sight. Maybe some upper 70s though, but I can handle that. Yes, I am ready for October to be over with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 This turned out to be a pretty vigorous, non severe weather episode overnight and this afternoon here. I was kept awake by some constant winds, and a bit of thunder, but it's hard to say for sure about the winds, as the rain was so loud Picked up two inches thru mid day, and now it's pouring again...enough for say another half inch, or even more, if it lasts a while. All in all a double/triple squall line, without much squall, which suits me fine. I like the rains since it's been so dry all summer and fall thus far, but I don't need the damaging winds. If I have to deal with damage I prefer it to be of a winter variety..you know, heavy, heavy snow dropping limbs rather than the z monster rampaging thru the countryside, lol. And Larry, I've been dealing with killer heat here, so this Oct ought to be hugely above normal, giving me tons of sleet this winter, and I'm ready for it....heck even the one coolish night was a bust as it started off cold, sort of, but warmed up toward morning so I had to kick off the blanket. T PS...looks like it's up to 2.5 and still pouring with this present line. Nice!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Ended up with 3.4" of rain here. Not bad. Also got approx 45mph winds early this morning as the main squall line moved through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Great photos, Dacula! Sure wish the wife's health was better so we could travel distances, but alas... not to be. Sorry you can't get around much now. Here are a few more pictures and some short videos from the trip. https://plus.google.com/photos/103393210667850829661/albums/6070198169896504753?authkey=CKj84f2hjfu6zQE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Looks like the weather is going to be nice for the NC State Fair, and fall really comes next week with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Looks like the weather is going to be nice for the NC State Fair, and fall really comes next week with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s around here. Which ride are you working this year? We're going on Friday! Seriously, are you going to go this year? We're taking our kid on Friday...it's his last day of track-out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Which ride are you working this year? We're going on Friday! Seriously, are you going to go this year? We're taking our kid on Friday...it's his last day of track-out. No, we're going to Disney with the kids for the first time next month, so I think we'll skip the fair this time. But I would like to see Vanilla Ice in concert tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 No, we're going to Disney with the kids for the first time next month, so I think we'll skip the fair this time. But I would like to see Vanilla Ice in concert tomorrow night. Disney's definitely the better move...and probably the safer one too. They aint got no Vanilla Ice tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 And Larry, I've been dealing with killer heat here, so this Oct ought to be hugely above normal, giving me tons of sleet this winter, and I'm ready for it....heck even the one coolish night was a bust as it started off cold, sort of, but warmed up toward morning so I had to kick off the blanket. T Tony, A warm (+2+) overall October at KATL is still far from a certainty due to the much cooler change now occuring. As a matter of fact, a forecaster that I use has KATL a bit below +2 for 10/1-29. So, in my mind it can still easily go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Disney's definitely the better move...and probably the safer one too. They aint got no Vanilla Ice tho. I would see Vanilla Ice before Disney , any day!!!Word to ya mutha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 How long should it take for Hurricane Gonzalez waves to make it to the East coast? Or are they already there? At the beach at Ocean Isle, waves didnt look out of the ordinary today? Any thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Which ride are you working this year? We're going on Friday! Seriously, are you going to go this year? We're taking our kid on Friday...it's his last day of track-out. No, we're going to Disney with the kids for the first time next month, so I think we'll skip the fair this time. But I would like to see Vanilla Ice in concert tomorrow night. Disney's definitely the better move...and probably the safer one too. They aint got no Vanilla Ice tho. I will miss eating the Italian sausage, roasted corn, and fried dough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 How long should it take for Hurricane Gonzalez waves to make it to the East coast? Or are they already there? At the beach at Ocean Isle, waves didnt look out of the ordinary today? Any thoughts From MHX Marine forecast this afternoon... .MARINE...SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 2 PM THU...SCA CONTINUES ACROSS ALL WATERS AS LINGERING HIGHSEAS REMAIN DESPITE DIMINISHING WINDS. WINDS CONT W TO SW 10-15 KTAND SEAS FROM 4 TO 6 FT. SWELL FROM HURRICANE GONZALO STARTING TOIMPACT THE COASTAL NC WATERS WITH INCREASING SEAS WITH PERIODICITYINCREASING TO 13 TO 14 SECONDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND BUILDING SEAS.ROUGH SEAS AND MODERATE W-SW FLOW CONTG ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS ONFRIDAY AS SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO IMPACTS THE COAST.EXPECT W-SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT ON FRI WITH SEAS5-9 FT HIGHEST CNTRL COASTAL WATERS.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL START THEFORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A SYSTEMAPPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ELEVATED SEAS 7 TO 9 FEET FROM DISTANTGONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERSSATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE ANDAPPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS.FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT WITHNORTHWESTERLY FLOW PICKING UP TO A SOLID 20 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OFTHE DAY SUNDAY. WILL SEE BOTH WINDS AND SEAS DROP SUNDAY NIGHT ANDMONDAY AS FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND SWELL FROM GONZALOSUBSIDES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Thanks Solak! Waiting on the big waves to bring some cool shells to the beach! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 NC coast wave forecast Bermuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Dacula, thanks for posting! Some nice waves coming to NC, but those Bermuda waves look scary! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 AO and NAO are going positive in the medium to long range. PNA is going negative. All signs point to a rather tranquil pattern for the SE and also no big cool downs. Biggest cool down looks like day 10 on the Euro and even farther out on the GFS. Could even see some above average temps in the medium to long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 18, 2014 Author Share Posted October 18, 2014 AO and NAO are going positive in the medium to long range. PNA is going negative. All signs point to a rather tranquil pattern for the SE and also no big cool downs. Biggest cool down looks like day 10 on the Euro and even farther out on the GFS. Could even see some above average temps in the medium to long range. An innocuous post in mid October, that would cause panic in the streets if it were Jan 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 AO and NAO are going positive in the medium to long range. PNA is going negative. All signs point to a rather tranquil pattern for the SE and also no big cool downs. Biggest cool down looks like day 10 on the Euro and even farther out on the GFS. Could even see some above average temps in the medium to long range. I guess that means we can rule out snow in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 I guess that means we can rule out snow in November. Yes, that's what it means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 The weather looks awesome here for the upcoming week. Temps in the 60s and no rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 Is there any correlation between a warm November and the following months of Dec-March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 Talk here of patchy frost tonight would be right on time if not a few days early for this area.......PGV will hit 32-36 tonight if the wind lays up and there are no clouds.....in town it will be 36-40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 To me the pattern looks fine for us. We need a great pattern in Siberia and we need to watch what is going on in the GOA more than right here in the SE. IF you expect snow in November outside the mountains you are living in the wrong place. We want a good pattern when it matters the most in the winter months. All will be well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 To me the pattern looks fine for us. We need a great pattern in Siberia and we need to watch what is going on in the GOA more than right here in the SE. IF you expect snow in November outside the mountains you are living in the wrong place. We want a good pattern when it matters the most in the winter months. All will be well.Met1985, Related to this: With the strong +PDO of September per the U of Washington table, we're looking absolutely golden for a +PDO averaged over DJF. Why? A whopping 17 of 17 Septembers with PDO of +0.70+ since 1900 went on to have a +PDO averaged over DJF! Sept. was over +1.0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 I've been away from the models over the past few days but I see a feature that will be worth watching as we go into this week...First off...northwest winds on the back side of a developing gale center in New England will keep things cool, calm with breezy conditions through Friday due to a couple re-enforcing shots of Canadian air. It's what happens as that gale center finally lifts that could make things interesting for some...both the GFS and Euro is dropping another lobe of energy across the southeast by next weekend and is trying to cut it off...with the GFS over Florida/East Coast while the Euro sends is more due south and into the Gulf of Mexico... This to me is worth watching as we go through the week especially Lower Gulf Coast States/FL/Coastal GA/SC...the GFS has a southeast bias in its model data in the Day 6-7 range...it may trend more towards the Euro as we go through the week or both models may compromise into one solution at some point...Also of interest, there may be some tropical enhancement going on in the Southern GOM...the Euro past Day 7 takes a storm and lifts it in the general direction of the Florida Panhandle by the end of the run...that is a result of the upper low being in the Gulf where as the GFS moves moisture across South Florida and never forms an actual surface low until its near the Bahamas...All in all...something to watch during an upcoming calm period, especially once we get to mid-week. Some folks again near the Gulf/FL/GA and possibly as far north as Charleston could see forecast changes as the week progresses... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 19, 2014 Share Posted October 19, 2014 Met1985, Related to this: With the strong +PDO of September per the U of Washington table, we're looking absolutely golden for a +PDO averaged over DJF. Why? A whopping 17 of 17 Septembers with PDO of +0.70+ since 1900 went on to have a +PDO averaged over DJF! Sept. was over +1.0. Thanks Larry for the info. Really so far it looks like things could not go any better for us right know looking down the road. You have put out some great info in here and in the main forum. Great job Larry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 20, 2014 Share Posted October 20, 2014 I've been away from the models over the past few days but I see a feature that will be worth watching as we go into this week... First off...northwest winds on the back side of a developing gale center in New England will keep things cool, calm with breezy conditions through Friday due to a couple re-enforcing shots of Canadian air. It's what happens as that gale center finally lifts that could make things interesting for some...both the GFS and Euro is dropping another lobe of energy across the southeast by next weekend and is trying to cut it off...with the GFS over Florida/East Coast while the Euro sends is more due south and into the Gulf of Mexico... This to me is worth watching as we go through the week especially Lower Gulf Coast States/FL/Coastal GA/SC...the GFS has a southeast bias in its model data in the Day 6-7 range...it may trend more towards the Euro as we go through the week or both models may compromise into one solution at some point... Also of interest, there may be some tropical enhancement going on in the Southern GOM...the Euro past Day 7 takes a storm and lifts it in the general direction of the Florida Panhandle by the end of the run...that is a result of the upper low being in the Gulf where as the GFS moves moisture across South Florida and never forms an actual surface low until its near the Bahamas... All in all...something to watch during an upcoming calm period, especially once we get to mid-week. Some folks again near the Gulf/FL/GA and possibly as far north as Charleston could see forecast changes as the week progresses... Hmmm I had to go back and look and sure enough back on Oct 7th Wow posted this And I commented that it was a hell of a storm showing up off VA..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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