strongwxnc Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 Crossing my fingers that Monday is our last 80 degree day until next spring. Same here! Forecasted high of 79 here... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 Crossing my fingers that Monday is our last 80 degree day until next spring. Same here! Forecasted high of 79 here... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 0z Euro hold strong with idea of the low cutting off. NAM follows suite lol Marion. The question remains though if we will get super cells to pop ahead of the line. If they do, the environment should be pretty favorable from some decent spin-ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 The 0z GFS would indicate that we'll have to wait at least another 12 to 13 days before our first threat of a wide spread frost/freeze. But with this being day 12/13 it really is in la la land so no guarantees it will even be then: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=10&model_dd=11&model_init_hh=00&fhour=300¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 0z Euro hold strong with idea of the low cutting off. NAM follows suite lol Marion. The question remains though if we will get super cells to pop ahead of the line. If they do, the environment should be pretty favorable from some decent spin-ups. Just read GSP's morning discussion, with the dynamics being shown at 850mb they're expecting isolated wind/tornado threat at the least with the potential for more if frontal timing is delayed any or if the pre-frontal cloud layer is not as abundant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 Just read GSP's morning discussion, with the dynamics being shown at 850mb they're expecting isolated wind/tornado threat at the least with the potential for more if frontal timing is delayed any or if the pre-frontal cloud layer is not as abundant. This will be very interesting imo. Much less of a bust potential here for most folks. Still not sold on Eastern NC and East Central SC getting in on the severe action but who knows. 6z GFS still giving values of +500 m2/s2 across middle Tenn Monday night. I think we are looking at a very ripe low cape/high shear event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 The November 24, 2001 outbreak is now the top analog. That's concerning to say the least. Parameters are still pointing to an impressive severe outbreak Monday(different than tornado outbreak). 40-50 kts of effective shear across the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of Alabama/Tennessee, CAPE values have slowly ticked up, nearing 2,000 J/KG for parts of the Mississippi/.Alabama/Louisiana. Lapse rates look sufficient for a fall outbreak. It now appears there will be enough forcing ahead of the system to get some discrete convection. So a potent squall line with embedded bow echos and tornadoes with pre-squall line convection posing a tornadic threat. The SPC does have a 30% hatched risk for parts of Dixie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 From RAH this morning... A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET (45-50KTS) WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...PULLING WARM MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE REGION. ALOFT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET BETWEEN 100-120KT WILL BE LIFTING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THUS...PLENTY OF SYNOPTIC LIFT AND WARM MOIST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TO FUEL NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. KINEMATIC ENERGY WILL BE ROBUST WITH LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES SUGGESTIVE OF STORMS WITH ROTATION. SCENARIO APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF A SQUALL LINE WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS EXHIBITING ROTATION (I.E. POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE). STILL TOO EARLY TO DEFINE WHEN SEVERE STORMS MOST LIKELY BUT CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SPREADING EAST BY EARLY EVENING. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE LACK OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY IF THICK CLOUDS COVER BULK OF REGION ALL DAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 Too much rain color just popped out here and now the rain and wind is knocking all the leafs off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 Significant changes on 12z GFS...don't have the ability to attach images on the phone but this run has fallen more into the Euro/NAM camp... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 11, 2014 Author Share Posted October 11, 2014 I see no point in complaining about what state has the most posts. People will always post the most about weather that directly affects them. The obvious solution, for those of you in states with less members, is to try and convince your friends and acquaintances who have an interest in weather to join the forum. In any case, turning a weather thread into a b**ch fest is unacceptable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 I see no point in complaining about what state has the most posts. People will always post the most about weather that directly affects them. The obvious solution, for those of you in states with less members, is to try and convince your friends and acquaintances who have an interest in weather to join the forum. In any case, turning a weather thread into a b**ch fest is unacceptable.Weather enthusiasts don't have friends, that's why they like weather! After Tuesday , temps look to be more in line with Oct norms. Warm days and a little crispness at night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 I don't recall in recent times a HWO talking about a possible event 3+ days away --- but from RAH tonight... DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY THROUGHWEDNESDAY. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEPOSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAINSEVERE WEATHER HAZARD. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILLOCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING IN MINOR FLOODING OF STREETSAND LOW LYING AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 I sure hope tonight's 0z NAM is not on to something...this upper low comes to a hault over the TN Valley on Tuesday keeping the SoApps very wet!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 You can thank recurving Vongfong in the WPAC...it's going to help the AO go sharply negative again in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 Who cares about a -AO in October? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 I see no point in complaining about what state has the most posts. People will always post the most about weather that directly affects them. The obvious solution, for those of you in states with less members, is to try and convince your friends and acquaintances who have an interest in weather to join the forum. In any case, turning a weather thread into a b**ch fest is unacceptable. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 Who cares about a -AO in October?Considering this past -AO plunge is sending a trough down the center part of the country, spurring a severe weather outbreak tomorrow, I'd say a lot of people care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 Who cares about a -AO in October? You do buddy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 Looking at the latest Euro it looks like most of the East will be in an amplified pattern through the next week or so. Should be some active weather with the upcoming recurving typhoon affecting the NAO and the AO tanking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 Looking at the latest Euro it looks like most of the East will be in an amplified pattern through the next week or so. Should be some active weather with the upcoming recurving typhoon affecting the NAO and the AO tanking. Yeah Met, that will be some chilly air coming into our area based off the thickness plots. Euro nailed this last storm 7-8 days out so why question it now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 Yeah Met, that will be some chilly air coming into our area based off the thickness plots. Euro nailed this last storm 7-8 days out so why question it now lol. It has been impressive for this storm and tracking it. I like the look it has in the mid range with the amplification and the NAO and AO taking a dive as well. Could be some interesting setups down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 At KATL, 10/1-12 averaged 71.1 or 5.0 above normal. This is the 8th warmest 10/1-12 since 1930 (i.e., 90th percentile). I counted a total of 19 that were at least 69.0 (~3+ above normal) with the range being 69.0-73.6. Based on my analysis of these 19 Oct.'s, I estimate that the chance of October 2014 at KATL ending up warm by my definition (2+ above normal) is only ~60%. So, with the projected upcoming sig. cooldown vs. the strong warmth of 10/1-12, it is still way up in the air as to whether or not October of 2014 will end up warm at KATL. Based on model projections/fcasts out two weeks, it looks too close to call right now. I've found what appears to be a pretty good partial correlation at KATL between warm Oct.'s and well above average wintry precip. during Nino's when the subsequent winter (DJF) turns out to be cold (well above average even for cold winters, alone). So, since I'd like the chance for above average wintry precip. at KATL and nearby areas to be higher than normal this winter, I'm hoping for a warm Oct. followed by a cold winter as well as an actual El Nino. Step one would be a warm Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 The leaves are about to hit their peak out away from the urban areas espeacilly. Runing a good 2 weeks ahead of schedule thanks to the frost several days ago. We usually peak right at Halloween day. A shame all the wind that will be coming in Tues p.m. and wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 The leaves in the Smoky's have another week before the peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 The leaves are about to hit their peak out away from the urban areas espeacilly. Runing a good 2 weeks ahead of schedule thanks to the frost several days ago. We usually peak right at Halloween day. A shame all the wind that will be coming in Tues p.m. and wednesday How are they looking up there? There are spots of color here, but it looks to me like it might not be a banner year for color. Lots of leaves coming off with green and brown spots, as opposed to the bright yellows, reds, and oranges. On another note, the GFS continues it's desire to create tropical systems in the Gulf in the LR. The 12z destroys portions of the SE with heavy rain from about 300 hrs on, LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Tennessee side of the Smoky's this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Quick and dirty on today's Euro run...we clear out behind the storm Thurs/Fri. Sat. is nice. +PNA spike sends cold front through with a chill down on Sunday into early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Tennessee side of the Smoky's this weekend Great photos, Dacula! Sure wish the wife's health was better so we could travel distances, but alas... not to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Weather looks very variable and fallish over the next couple of weeks. Should see several cold fronts pass with warmer days ahead and cooler days behind, with the threat of showers every so often. There don't appear to be any big, anomalous systems like this one for a while, although the Euro wants to crank up a fairly decent storm off the NE coast toward the end of its run. Unfortunately, the Aleutian low is nowhere to be found in any of the guidance I looked at. In fact, the Euro builds a pretty big ridge in that area at the end of the run. The GOA low/trough is there, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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