max100 Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 If I didn't know any better I would think it's the middle of July. Very humid and almost oppressive. The A/C is running full blast again. Dewpoints over 65 in October is just ridiculous. It is horrible, my car was registering 90 yesterday...This is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 It is horrible, my car was registering 90 yesterday...This is ridiculous. It must have been 90 then because car thermometers are very accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Could have some strong storms for the South, mainly Monday into Tuesday. Typical low CAPE high shear type of set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 GFS continues to show the sharp trough/cutoff idea. So does the Euro. But the Euro now kicks the cutoff out after a day or so, as opposed to yesterday's 12z solution, which kept it wobbling over the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 It must have been 90 then because car thermometers are very accurate. I appreciate your sarcasm, again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 It is horrible, my car was registering 90 yesterday...This is ridiculous.Our official high was 87 at GSP, so 90 down your way is very plausible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Our official high was 87 at GSP, so 90 down your way is very plausible! Thanks mackerel, I was actually in Athens at the time, always warmer there from downslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 I was 85 F at 4:02 PM and I'm 20 miles or so line of sight west of Athens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Could have some strong storms for the South, mainly Monday into Tuesday. Typical low CAPE high shear type of set up. Agreed, GFS is showing some +500 m2/s2 helicity Monday in E Tenn and parts of the TN/AL border. Little cape showing up, but with helicity and shear being as high as modeled.. I could see a few EF-0 to EF-2 tornado's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 It must have been 90 then because car thermometers are very accurate. It might not have been 90 but it certainly felt that way with the oppressive humidity. We had cooler days in July than we had yesterday. I think there should be different criteria for a heat advisory in the fall as opposed to summer. Anything over 85 with dp over 65 should meet the criteria for a heat advisory in the fall. Your body gets used to the cooler weather and it doesn't take much heat to make it feel really hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Agreed, GFS is showing some +500 m2/s2 helicity Monday in E Tenn and parts of the TN/AL border. Little cape showing up, but with helicity and shear being as high as modeled.. I could see a few EF-0 to EF-2 tornado's.I wonder if there will be enough forcing out ahead of the system to get discrete convection. GFS shows the winds backing a bit more. I still think main mode will be linear damaging winds. In Dixie alley, it doesn't take those raging CAPE values to get tornadoes. But I'd like to see a little more consistency between the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 It might not have been 90 but it certainly felt that way with the oppressive humidity. We had cooler days in July than we had yesterday. I think there should be different criteria for a heat advisory in the fall as opposed to summer. Anything over 85 with dp over 65 should meet the criteria for a heat advisory in the fall. Your body gets used to the cooler weather and it doesn't take much heat to make it feel really hot. Is this a serious comment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Is this a serious comment? Yes! I nearly passed out yesterday from the oppressive heat and humiditty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Yes! I nearly passed out yesterday from the oppressive heat and humiditty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Why are some people so sarcastic on here? It is just weather, geez... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Why are some people so sarcastic on here? It is just weather, geez... Lighten up Francis, it's just a weather forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 I wonder if there will be enough forcing out ahead of the system to get discrete convection. GFS shows the winds backing a bit more. I still think main mode will be linear damaging winds. In Dixie alley, it doesn't take those raging CAPE values to get tornadoes. But I'd like to see a little more consistency between the models.Yeah forcing looks to lag a little so we will see but nonetheless, widespread 50+kt winds should accompany the line. Would love to see some descrete cells pop up in E Tenn for chase potential (of course not in hopes of distruction). I am thinking the best shot embeded in the line Monday night would be where Tn/Al/Ms meet with good veering showing up but hey we are discussing the GFS here so that could all change quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 :weenie: Warm days in the fall are not uncommon. A Heat Advisory is a product that's meant to warn people that dangerous conditions are expected, which could pose a health hazard. Being uncomfortable is not a hazard. Great googly moogly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Yes! I nearly passed out yesterday from the oppressive heat and humiditty.felt like a nice fall day yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Can somebody get this runaway train of crap back on track? Is it gonna rain soon imby? What's up with the ULL next Monday and Tuesday , is it showing 4-5 inches of rain for me? I need rain and cooler temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Can somebody get this runaway train of crap back on track? Is it gonna rain soon imby? What's up with the ULL next Monday and Tuesday , is it showing 4-5 inches of rain for me? I need rain and cooler temps. Waiting on the next GFS & Euro runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 12z gfs not nearly as impressive, cuts the low off much farther north then what was previously modeled. Thus this run at least looks to be less of a severe threat and more of a rain event. Time will tell and I expect the models (or at least the GFS) to continue to flip flop a few more times as to whether or not the low cuts off when the storm is farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 12z gfs not nearly as impressive, cuts the low off much farther north then what was previously modeled. Thus this run at least looks to be less of a severe threat and more of a rain event. Time will tell and I expect the models (or at least the GFS) to continue to flip flop a few more times as to whether or not the low cuts off when the storm is farther south. The threat is still very real for the low/mid Mississippi River Valley and points just east into Alabama and West/Central Tennessee. Looks like the GFS has the surface winds backing and the LLJ looks very impressive. Could be a rough day Monday for those aforementioned places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 The threat is still very real for the low/mid Mississippi River Valley and points just east into Alabama and West/Central Tennessee. Looks like the GFS has the surface winds backing and the LLJ looks very impressive. Could be a rough day Monday for those aforementioned places. No doubt, certainly still a severe threat. Best play Monday may be to sit on the Tennessee/Alabama border and watch for where the best shear pops. LLJ like you mentioned is impressive across the area so the next fews days of model runs will be very telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 70 kt winds at 850 and 80+ kt winds at 500mb slamming into the Southern Apps Tuesday morning...first off that would have my attention in the mountains for even non-convective winds being mixed down to the surface. And second...its a very strong upslope signature for the So Apps as that jet will be doing a squeeze play with a ridge off shore...The potential is there for a wind and rain maker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 WxSouth is sounding the alarm on facebook. The newly released run of GFS shows a trend toward what European Model shows...which is a strongly negative tilting system that blasts through the Southeast, Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys, then much of the East Coast. This is an image of rain totals ahead of the storm ending Tuesday night (its just beginning then for eastern VA, MD, DE) The storm forms a strong 850 jet through the TN Valley Monday night , the Apps Tuesday and then strengthens this jet in Virginia and Maryland with a strong 75 knot wind. This evolution usually means severe weather along this line as it comes through with unfortunately, tornadoes in that line. Remember Fall can be another period of Severe Weather, like Spring, since we're changing the seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 The 12z Euro continues the trend of cutting the upper low off farther north now. I think this is a trend to be cognizant of as we head into the winter. That model seems to have a SE bias with these features. I have seen numerous anomalous cutoffs over the SE in the 5-8 day range, only to trend weaker and farther north as we close in. Kinda goes back to the convo the other day about why models tend to trend away from the big, anomalous stuff rather than toward. Still, should be a pretty powerful system and a good weather-maker. The farther west you are, the better the chance for interesting weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 I can see by the Wxsouth maps that there is a 2-4 inch bullseye over my neck of the woods! That basically means <.25 ! You can book it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 The 12z Euro continues the trend of cutting the upper low off farther north now. I think this is a trend to be cognizant of as we head into the winter. That model seems to have a SE bias with these features. I have seen numerous anomalous cutoffs over the SE in the 5-8 day range, only to trend weaker and farther north as we close in. Kinda goes back to the convo the other day about why models tend to trend away from the big, anomalous stuff rather than toward. Still, should be a pretty powerful system and a good weather-maker. The farther west you are, the better the chance for interesting weather. Yep should be a good soaker for everyone! Euro also has a tropical disturbance near Miami on the 10 day. Lets see if it keeps that feature for the next few runs, might be something to watch if it persists. I was doing some research on these low CAPE, high shear events and came across a good link that sheds light on how these events evolve. Thought it was interesting. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/weatherpapers/116/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Yep should be a good soaker for everyone! Euro also has a tropical disturbance near Miami on the 10 day. Lets see if it keeps that feature for the next few runs, might be something to watch if it persists. I was doing some research on these low CAPE, high shear events and came across a good link that sheds light on how these events evolve. Thought it was interesting. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/weatherpapers/116/index.html That's a good read. Thanks for linking to it. D10 tropical threats have shown up on the GFS all season. The Euro has been much more bearish. It'll be interesting to see if it maintains the entity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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