Cold Rain Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 We need this to come farther east though. Areas east of the mountains get left out of it. Looks like a long stretch of 80+ days in our area with summertime humidity too by next week. Yep, gonna be an awesome few days! Get out and enjoy the sunshine and warm weather before the harsh chill of winter sets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 A doozie of an ULL is forecasted to cut off just west of the Mississippi River this weekend, then meander east and quickly take off NE by Wednesday. Could be very stormy for parts of the SE. 850mb winds on the east side of that upper low running in excess of 50 knots...that would be a great severe weather and moisture transport mechanism per the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 850mb winds on the east side of that upper low running in excess of 50 knots...that would be a great severe weather and moisture transport mechanism per the EuroNot to mention, it's showing a 995 mbar surface low in SE Missouri. That usually spells organized severe threat for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Not to mention, it's showing a 995 mbar surface low in SE Missouri. That usually spells organized severe threat for the SE. Yeah that southerly Gulf surface flow meeting an airmass this cold could bring a decent severe threat. Thickness values behind the cold front are similar to what came across the area over the weekend. The question now is whether or not it tracks through the Ohio Valley or along the coast. Ohio valley looks more probable atm imo. Should be a better severe threat if the low tracks that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 12z Euro has a low during the middle of next week taking a panhandle hook type track moving the low from TX on Tuesday morning to Wisconsin on Wednesday afternoon. Also shows a very strong vort max moving across AR & MS Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Showing 60kt+ winds at the 700mb level over AR & MS on Tuesday afternoon from the south and 200mb winds veering a bit. This is beginning to look like a very interesting setup if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 I just need it seasonable at least by Oct 18th for the deer opener...I will settle for lows around 40 and highs in the 50's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 GFS showing its first high in the 40s here in the fastasy range. Nice to see nonetheless... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 GFS showing its first high in the 40s here in the fastasy range. Nice to see nonetheless... That's a hell of a storm off the VA capes lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 That's a hell of a storm off the VA capes lol.... Better hope that doesn't verify...the storm, that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Better hope that doesn't verify...the storm, that is.Exactly! A storm like that = winter cancel!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Yea wasn't there a Halloween storm just a few years ago 11-12? Such a disappointing winter after 09-10 and 10-11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 IIRC there have been two large October storms in the last 8 years that dropped very early season snow just to our north and northeast. Sandy was one of them. BOTH of those winters were pretty bad for most of the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 12z GFS starting to lean towards the Euro in regards to major trough/possible cutoff next week from the Mississippi River eastward... Usually during the cold season the Euro is at its best 4-5 days out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Thankfully, none of the latest guidance has a big storm. Also, there's nothing too concerning about wiping away the negative anomaly around the Aleutians either. The OPI is looking good so far. Don Sutherland's post on the main board offers some good perspective about -AO Octobers following -AO summers leading to -AO winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 IIRC there have been two large October storms in the last 8 years that dropped very early season snow just to our north and northeast. Sandy was one of them. BOTH of those winters were pretty bad for most of the east. It would be cool if Larry could dig up the years that had big storms/nor'easters in October and correlate that with the warmer and less snowier following winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 12z Euro coming in farther south with the cut off low. It actually centers it over Tennessee next Wednesday morning. It appears to go negative tilt just a bit in the 168hr frame. This storm has my attention for sure. ETA: At hour 192 moves the cut off low over WNC, high to the northeast is being modeled much stronger so its forcing the low farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 What kind of storm are we looking at? Severe? A lot of rain? Winter storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 12z Euro coming in farther south with the cut off low. It actually centers it over Tennessee next Wednesday morning. It appears to go negative tilt just a bit in the 168hr frame. This storm has my attention for sure. If that is close to right our dry spell will be over in a big way. Hopefully it is, since we haven't had decent rain here since August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 What kind of storm are we looking at? Severe? A lot of rain? Winter storm? Lots of rain and possible severe IF we get the storm. It's still at least 5 days away.I'm 100% certain it will not be a winter storm in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Here are the 4 main operational LR models from eWall. The Euro is the slowest/deepest. 12z Euro @ 168: 12z Navy @ 168 (similar in timing to the Euro): 12z GFS @ 150 (faster and weaker than the Euro): 12z CMC @ 150 (similar in timing and strength to the GFS): The GFS has certainly trended toward the Euro with respect to the amplification of the system. The Euro has trended more south and east with time, while still maintaining it's deeply amplified and cut-off solution. One thing is sure, if the Euro is right, there will be some severe weather and heavy rain in the southern and eastern part of the country. It will be interesting to see which model is handling the situation best. It will certainly be fun to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 So, I've noticed the extended here in southeastern VA keeps jumping back and forth from a torch to cool weather for mid october, and it seems to go back and forth like that every day... Which of the models is it that seems to be so hopelessly confused about the pattern mid-month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 So, I've noticed the extended here in southeastern VA keeps jumping back and forth from a torch to cool weather for mid october, and it seems to go back and forth like that every day... Which of the models is it that seems to be so hopelessly confused about the pattern mid-month? They're probably going off the GFS. It changes every 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Watch the Typhoon that is about to hit Japan. The last one that did that earlier this year caused a huge trough to come down with rain and cool weather about 4-5 days later along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 It would be cool if Larry could dig up the years that had big storms/nor'easters in October and correlate that with the warmer and less snowier following winters. 1234, Unfortunately, I don't have that info and it isn't readily obtainable. I do recall one right off the top of my head due to personal experience: Oct. of 1982 if I recall correctly. That was during a strong El Nino, which may have indirectly been a contributing factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Here are the Euro 500mb height/850mb temp plots from 168-240. Very strong cut-off that just meanders slowly east and northeast. Also notice the Aleutian low comes back around 216. It would be awesome if this was a couple of days out instead of way down the road. We'll probably end up with a quick trough that slides in and out. 168: 192: 216: 240: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 TWC is forecasting a major cooldown in about a week with highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low to mid 50s for Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 After my high of 85 F today, anything cooler would be welcomed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 18z GFS continues the trend to a negative tilt trough or possible cutoff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 After my high of 85 F today, anything cooler would be welcomed! If I didn't know any better I would think it's the middle of July. Very humid and almost oppressive. The A/C is running full blast again. Dewpoints over 65 in October is just ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 18z GFS continues the trend to a negative tilt trough or possible cutoff...6z GFS still shows the trough passage but it does move right out to sea. After that the GFS continues to show Larry's phantom storm at day 12. After that it looks like a warm zonal pattern. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_144_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=500_vort_ht&fhr=144&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141009+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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