The Official 2014 Fall Discussion Thread

[GaWx]

I just looked at 10/1-13 for KATL based on forecasts through the 6-10 day period. My rough estimation is that KATL would need to average at least 3F warmer than normal for the priod 10/14-31 to get the entire month up to 2 or more warmer than normal. Admittedly, this will be tough to attain although the Euro weeklies suggest there is a reasonable shot at this as of now. We'll see.

 

 Looking at KATL for 10/1-13 actual plus forecasts, it looks a good bit warmer vs. how it loooked two days ago, despite the current significant chill bringing KATL 10 below normal for two days. It then had looked like KATL would be only barely warmer than normal at most for 10/1-13. Now, projections have KATL at ~1.5 above normal for 10/1-13 averaged. If that were to verify, it would mean they need to be only a little warmer than 2 above for 10/14-31 instead of the 3+ it appeared was needed two days ago. So, that means the chances of a +2+ Oct. there have increased though it still will be a bit of a challenge.

[calculus1]

Through conversations with those in the industry I've been given the impression that Brad has the blessing of his station management and he has the green light on most anything weather-wise...given Brad's performance record he deserves that leeway.

 

The fact that Brad is a full blown meteorologist with great credentials doesn't hurt.   But some of these guys don't even have a meteorology degree of any type, much less a broadcast meteorology degree.

 

Based on observations the past several years, I would say that Brad P does seem to have been granted the greatest latitude of any of the local Charlotte mets.  He has also done wonders for the social networking presence of WCNC, so that has probably earned him some of that freedom too.  The fact that he's an excellent met doesn't hurt either.

[Iceagewhereartthou]

6z GFS builds ridging into the SE around 180 and keeps it there through the end of the run.  If that verifies, a warm October may just be in the cards.

Though you guys may be right about the warm October, I just can't jump on that bandwagon.

1: I always wish for below normal temps no matter what month, especially in the fall after our endless southeast summers.

2: in many ways, October is the prettiest month of the year, I don't want it ruined by above average temps!

3: We know that wishing has no bearing on actual weather, so if I am going to wish, I am going to wish for below average October AND below average winter. If we are going to wish, why sell ourselves short? Kinda like wishing you only get half of what you want, that doesn't make for much of a wish.

4: Wishing for warm weather now cause we MIGHT get colder weather later doesn't make a lot of sense to me. I'll take colder weather anytime I can get it and hope for it to continue.

Here's to wall to wall cold from October to April!

[wxjunkie]

Though you guys may be right about the warm October, I just can't jump on that bandwagon.

1: I always wish for below normal temps no matter what month, especially in the fall after our endless southeast summers.

2: in many ways, October is the prettiest month of the year, I don't want it ruined by above average temps!

3: We know that wishing has no bearing on actual weather, so if I am going to wish, I am going to wish for below average October AND below average winter. If we are going to wish, why sell ourselves short? Kinda like wishing you only get half of what you want, that doesn't make for much of a wish.

4: Wishing for warm weather now cause we MIGHT get colder weather later doesn't make a lot of sense to me. I'll take colder weather anytime I can get it and hope for it to continue.

Here's to wall to wall cold from October to April!

Yeah, i agree with your last statement. Never could understand why people down here would wish for warmth or heat so much.. they get it enough during the year. Embrace and enjoy cool to cold weather!

[GaWx]

Yeah, i agree with your last statement. Never could understand why people down here would wish for warmth or heat so much.. they get it enough during the year. Embrace and enjoy cool to cold weather!

This is the first time in my life that I've actively rooted for a warm Oct. as I'm normally a cool Oct. kind of guy. It totally goes against my natural preference and feels kind of strange. However, I know the later month warmth would seemingly be good for ATL's chances for ample wintry precip. chances assuming a cool or cold Nino winter. I look at it as a sacrifice. Regardless, my normal self is absolutely loving the chilly spell here in Savannah. I had a fantastic walk this evening! I'll worry about the warmth later.

 

Edit: I took a walk after dark because I'm getting myself trained for walks after dark that would be required if the three hour fall back of the clocks passes Congress and Obama signs it into law. It is amazing that Americans can get our government to do so much just so we can view the entire Euro before midnight! Man, I hate EDT! What's more important, helping the farmers or helping the wx forecasting community get to bed at a reasonable hour?

[DaculaWeather]

Though you guys may be right about the warm October, I just can't jump on that bandwagon.

1: I always wish for below normal temps no matter what month, especially in the fall after our endless southeast summers.

2: in many ways, October is the prettiest month of the year, I don't want it ruined by above average temps!

3: We know that wishing has no bearing on actual weather, so if I am going to wish, I am going to wish for below average October AND below average winter. If we are going to wish, why sell ourselves short? Kinda like wishing you only get half of what you want, that doesn't make for much of a wish.

4: Wishing for warm weather now cause we MIGHT get colder weather later doesn't make a lot of sense to me. I'll take colder weather anytime I can get it and hope for it to continue.

Here's to wall to wall cold from October to April!

I think that it's hard to go against what you know has worked in the past, regardless of your feelings. Analogs are your friend that you have to put a little trust in. 

Between Larry and Tony's moles, this may end up being one to remember!

[GaWx]

Well, well, well! Per actuals and forecasts covering 10/1-15, KATL would be averaging near 68F, which would be 2.5 degrees above normal for 10/1-15 despite this potent chill they just had. So, things have definitely warmed since Friday. If this verifies, they'd now only need to average 1.5+ above average for 10/16-31 to end up with a warm October (+2+) per my definition. Put another way, they'd only need to average 62+ during 10/16-31 to get a warm October. ATL folks, 62 is not so bad, is it?

[FallsLake]

Well, well, well! Per actuals and forecasts covering 10/1-15, KATL would be averaging near 68F, which would be 2.5 degrees above normal for 10/1-15 despite this potent chill they just had. So, things have definitely warmed since Friday. If this verifies, they'd now only need to average 1.5+ above average for 10/16-31 to end up with a warm October (+2+) per my definition. Put another way, they'd only need to average 62+ during 10/16-31 to get a warm October. ATL folks, 62 is not so bad, is it?

We're getting far enough into the fall season where above average temps can be comfortable.

Edit: So I just contradicted myself with the below post...

[FallsLake]

6z GFS has some kind of tropical feature hitting the SW/W coast of Florida at day 9 or so. Not sure if the storm will actually be there but the pattern does show some really juicy tropical air spreading across the SE during that time. Looks like there could be some lows near 70 if this pattern materializes as shown.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=10&model_dd=06&model_init_hh=06&fhour=228&parameter=LFTX&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=10&model_dd=06&model_init_hh=06&fhour=228&parameter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

[GaWx]

Falls,

The 6Z GFS is actually the 15th GFS run in a row showing a similar TC! However, there has been virtually no support from the Euro meaning a classic wx model battle!

[FallsLake]

Falls,

The 6Z GFS is actually the 15th GFS run in a row showing a similar TC! However, there has been virtually no support from the Euro meaning a classic wx model battle!

Or a classic GFS sucks realization. Who knows... you know the saying "A broke clock is right twice a day". But, the big question is how warm and humid will it get late next week? The 6z GFS would have many on here turning the AC back on.

[burgertime]

Euro from last night keeps things average maybe flirting with the mild side. Temps stay in the mid 70's over the next 7-10 days. No frost it appears in the forecast. 

[Brick Tamland]

There could very well be a regional bias from the media, especially those stations who have lead Meteorologists who have either were raised or has spent a lengthy amount of time in this region...

 

I would assume the same might apply (in reverse) for northern-based outlets predicting abnormally warm weather.

 

Speaking of WxSouth...I noticed they are hinting of another major amplification of the jet by mid-month leading to a significant storm...

 

 

I know the local stations here are very conservative when it comes to snow. I have heard others say the Triangle area for NC is really hard to forecast when it comes to snow, but I don't know why. The local mets usually start conservative and then change as things go along if they have to. I guess that is the safest route because it's more likely a winter storm will end up on the lower side than forecasted than be more than forecasted. I guess if they bust, they would rather bust lower than higher.

[mackerel_sky]

So with frost and some freezing temps this past weekend, does this warmup this week constitute Indian Summer conditions, especially for the mountains?

[max100]

Seriously,, 90 degrees in Atl on the 17th, I hate this.

[DaculaWeather]

Seriously,, 90 degrees in Atl on the 17th, I hate this.

I'll lay good money down that says it won't happen.

[burgertime]

Seriously,, 90 degrees in Atl on the 17th, I hate this.

 

Seriously, trusting a model forecast 11 days away...

[Hvward]

Euro looks fun with a cut off low in the middle of the country in the long range. Max if you are going to look at anything long range stick to the 500mb maps, they are much more telling.

[max100]

Euro looks fun with a cut off low in the middle of the country in the long range. Max if you are going to look at anything long range stick to the 500mb maps, they are much more telling.

Thank you.....

[LithiaWx]

Seriously,, 90 degrees in Atl on the 17th, I hate this.

 

With the SE ridge possibly flexing it's muscle towards mid-October don't be shocked if we flirt with mid 80's.  Nearly 590dm at 500mb will bring the heat along with ~20c at 850mb.  If those parameters verify it's going to be unseasonably warm.  I posted a few days ago that there are signs our friend the SE ridge will make an appearance from time to time over the coming weeks/.  But 90 that late in the year would be nearly unprecedented which you should take into account when looking at long range OP models.

[Iceagewhereartthou]

Come on guys, you're killing me!! THIS is exactly why I'll never wish for above average temps, cause it sucks when it happens bring back this past weekend, PLEASE!

[GaWx]

Come on guys, you're killing me!! THIS is exactly why I'll never wish for above average temps, cause it sucks when it happens bring back this past weekend, PLEASE!

Iceage,

Well, with a name like Iceage, you'd probably melt just thinking about warmth. Seriously, when the big snows, sleets, and ZR's hit this winter, I'm confident you won't be thinking at all about the prior warm October. Or maybe you'd be praising it. ;)

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Seriously,, 90 degrees in Atl on the 17th, I hate this.

That would be a heat wave for the ages. Historic !

[Snowless in Carrollton]

So is there any sign of normal temps again in the next 2 weeks ? 

 

Accuweather has us in the 30's for lows by the 18th so hopefully they are right.

[Solak]

So with frost and some freezing temps this past weekend, does this warmup this week constitute Indian Summer conditions, especially for the mountains?

I would say yes, depending on the location.

 

Via Wiki:

Indian summer is a period of unseasonably warm, dry weather that sometimes occurs in autumn in the Northern Hemisphere. The US National Weather Service defines this as weather conditions that are sunny and clear with above normal temperatures, occurring late-September to mid-November.^[1] It is usually described as occurring after a killing frost.^[2]

 

^{via Detroit/Pontiac NWS}

^{http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/stories/i-summer.php}

[metalicwx366]

So is there any sign of normal temps again in the next 2 weeks ?

Accuweather has us in the 30's for lows by the 18th so hopefully they are right.

My forecast for the next 7 days is 87-89 and sunny!

Boring!

Good thing accuweather is pretty good at forecasting in the very long range. I'm ready for the rainy period around the 21nd-25th. November will be boring though. They have us at 77 and sunny every day.

[wxjunkie]

This is the first time in my life that I've actively rooted for a warm Oct. as I'm normally a cool Oct. kind of guy. It totally goes against my natural preference and feels kind of strange. However, I know the later month warmth would seemingly be good for ATL's chances for ample wintry precip. chances assuming a cool or cold Nino winter. I look at it as a sacrifice. Regardless, my normal self is absolutely loving the chilly spell here in Savannah. I had a fantastic walk this evening! I'll worry about the warmth later.

 

Edit: I took a walk after dark because I'm getting myself trained for walks after dark that would be required if the three hour fall back of the clocks passes Congress and Obama signs it into law. It is amazing that Americans can get our government to do so much just so we can view the entire Euro before midnight! Man, I hate EDT! What's more important, helping the farmers or helping the wx forecasting community get to bed at a reasonable hour?

3 hours???

 

Yeah, i love cool Octobers. Actually, the older i get, the more i love cold. 

[GaWx]

3 hours???

Yeah, i love cool Octobers. Actually, the older i get, the more i love cold.

The three hours is just my silly dry humor. I used to talk about how great a poster Rainstorm was here. Then again, I don't know if anyone here thinks dry humor is funny. And then others think I'm being serious. I mean, come on, Rainstorm being a great poster? Even Rainstorm, him or herself thougth he/she was not good lol. Rainstorm was having a blast trolling.

[Kory]

A doozie of an ULL is forecasted to cut off just west of the Mississippi River this weekend, then meander east and quickly take off NE by Wednesday.  Could be very stormy for parts of the SE.  

 

[jshetley]

We need this to come farther east though. Areas east of the mountains get left out of it. Looks like a long stretch of 80+ days in our area with summertime humidity too by next week.