mackerel_sky Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 GSP is wondering about frost this weekend!! AS A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...UPPER HEIGHTS DO NOT BEGIN TO REBOUND UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH THICKNESS VALUES CORRESPONDINGLY BOTTOMING OUT SATURDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE FCST IS DRY...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST/FREEZE ACRS MUCH OF THE MTNS ON SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN THE MORE COMMONLY TRUSTED BLENDED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS FROSTY TEMPS IN MOST VALLEYS AND SOME OF THE FOOTHILLS...WITH A FREEZE ON HIGHER RIDGES. SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS GO SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER BUT THESE ARE LIKELY TOO COLD. WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LIGHT LLVL FLOW...WIND MAY MAINTAIN ENOUGH MIXING TO LIMIT THE EXTENT OF FROST. FURTHERMORE DEWPOINTS MAY BE A BIT TOO LOW. AN ADVISORY COULD BE WARRANTED BUT THE DECISION MOST LIKELY WILL BE MADE SAT AFTN. MINS IN THE PIEDMONT WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST. Sadly, they are just about to give up on convection too! Barely even a mention! So this is why models being wrong has an effect on day to day functions! It was looking gloom and doom a day or two ago with a severe squall line and strongest oct front ever! The powers that be, moved all high school football games to tonight, based on all the forecasts, disrupting schedules and lives,and now it looks to be a band of showers!!!! Epic fail! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Based on very rough estimates/forecasts, ATL looks to be as cool as ~1 F below normal for 10/1-9 averaged. However, per the new Euro weeklies fwiw, it would be mainly slightly above normal there through the end of the month. If this verifies, ATL would go back to a little above normal and end up the month at least ~1 above normal fwiw. Based on the general pattern suggested by the Euro fwiw. a warm Oct per my definition (+2+) would be possible despite the probable cool start for 10/1-9 averaged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Sadly, they are just about to give up on convection too! Barely even a mention! So this is why models being wrong has an effect on day to day functions! It was looking gloom and doom a day or two ago with a severe squall line and strongest oct front ever! The powers that be, moved all high school football games to tonight, based on all the forecasts, disrupting schedules and lives,and now it looks to be a band of showers!!!! Epic fail! Can you show me the HWO that portended to "doom and gloom"? What do you mean "give up on convection"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Pretty good convection in Alabama for the early morning hours, I would think some heating of the day would only enhance that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Can you show me the HWO that portended to "doom and gloom"? What do you mean "give up on convection"?I'm didn't mean to say y'all called for gloom and doom, it was people on the board. In fact, with all the parameters that were showing up, y'all still left mention out of the HWO, which was the right move. In the afternoon discussion yesterday, there was a snippet about the timing east of the mountains for the cold frontal passage, after the initial prefrontal band this AM, and was seeming to wonder if there would be convection at all or minimal convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 I'm didn't mean to say y'all called for gloom and doom, it was people on the board. In fact, with all the parameters that were showing up, y'all still left mention out of the HWO, which was the right move. In the afternoon discussion yesterday, there was a snippet about the timing east of the mountains for the cold frontal passage, after the initial prefrontal band this AM, and was seeming to wonder if there would be convection at all or minimal convection I must have missed that part. Your topic sentence was addressing GSP, so I naturally assumed your whole paragraph was as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 I'm didn't mean to say y'all called for gloom and doom, it was people on the board. In fact, with all the parameters that were showing up, y'all still left mention out of the HWO, which was the right move. In the afternoon discussion yesterday, there was a snippet about the timing east of the mountains for the cold frontal passage, after the initial prefrontal band this AM, and was seeming to wonder if there would be convection at all or minimal convectionThermodynamics aren't as great toward South Carolina and North Carolina as they were further west. Mississippi and Alabama has some damage from the squall line overnight. So I'd say that this wasn't a total bust. October isn't really known for severe weather. November is when the second severe season kicks up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 BMX: "DISCUSSION... A PRE-FRONTAL QLCS HAS OUTRUN ITS UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT THIS MORNINGAND IS NOW A MERE SHELL OF WHAT IT WAS EARLIER TONIGHT. THIS HASRESULTED IN A COLD POOL RACING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA ATTHE PRESENT TIME WITH SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS ON ITS LEADING EDGE.OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE FORMED IN A BAND JUST AHEAD OF THECOLD POOL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. ECHOTOPS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED TO 48 KFT WITH SOME OF THE STRONGESTCELLS...BUT HAVE NOT BEEN VERY PERSISTENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILLMERGE WITH THE LINE TO ITS WEST WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS...BUT THISACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF THE BEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL FLOW." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Matthew East@eastwx 11m11 minutes ago Band of showers continuing to work eastward while weakening. Look for scattered showers/ storms later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 80s this time of year are certainly not welcome..lol MId 80's today, felt uncomfortable. Looking forward to 60s for highs and 40s for lows. ideal for this time of year. Although those temps (60's/40's) aren't really a normal occurrence for our area this time of year, it would be nice. Those temps don't become consistent in this part of upstate SC until the start of the holiday consumer massacre...er....season. I'm not sure it could even be called "consistent" then. Plus, December always features a few days in the 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 I don't know what FFC is thinking but I think they need to seriously adjust their forecast. Seems as if the rain has moved through faster than anticipated. They are forecasting a 100% chance of rain this afternoon and 60% chance of rain tonight. I think the rain is pretty much over with now and it's 10am. My forecast says showers and thunderstorms likely after 4pm. 15 miles away in Alabama their forecast says showers and thunderstorms possible before 1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 They mentioned that it was moving faster than anticipated in the morning AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 I don't know what FFC is thinking but I think they need to seriously adjust their forecast. Seems as if the rain has moved through faster than anticipated. They are forecasting a 100% chance of rain this afternoon and 60% chance of rain tonight. I think the rain is pretty much over with now and it's 10am. My forecast says showers and thunderstorms likely after 4pm. 15 miles away in Alabama their forecast says showers and thunderstorms possible before 1pm. I think we should all march on FFC and demand change. Fire them all for incompetence! We should allow you to make the forecasts for FFC until we find some replacements who can actually make a forecast that's worth a damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machetemoonlight Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 I think we should all march on FFC and demand change. Fire them all for incompetence! We should allow you to make the forecasts for FFC until we find some replacements who can actually make a forecast that's worth a damn. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 I think we should all march on FFC and demand change. Fire them all for incompetence! We should allow you to make the forecasts for FFC until we find some replacements who can actually make a forecast that's worth a damn. Hands up! Don't forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 I just looked at 10/1-13 for KATL based on forecasts through the 6-10 day period. My rough estimation is that KATL would need to average at least 3F warmer than normal for the priod 10/14-31 to get the entire month up to 2 or more warmer than normal. Admittedly, this will be tough to attain although the Euro weeklies suggest there is a reasonable shot at this as of now. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Here's a whole lot of words for a mid package update... .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...A SERIES OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT WILL CAUSE A MID-UPPER LOW TO DEVELOP AND CLOSE OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY SATURDAY. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS INVOF THE MS RIVER AT 16Z WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EAST...THE STRENGTHENING TENDENCY OF THE TROUGH WILL OFFSET THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND CAUSE SEASONABLY STRONG AND GRADUALLY INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT TO SPREAD EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IN FACT...584 DM H5 HEIGHTS AT GSO THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST TO FALL 120 METERS...TO NEAR 570 DM...BY 12 SAT. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT/CONFLUENCE AXIS OVER NE NC WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT NORTH AND AWAY FROM CENTRAL NC TODAY...WHILE BOTH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS AT 16Z...AND TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN TN VALLEY...APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND SHOWERS WILL WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE RAH CWFA BETWEEN 18-00Z TODAY...WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW PIEDMONT AROUND MIDNIGHT AND REACH THE COASTAL PLAIN AROUND DAYBREAK. AN AREA OF RELATIVELY SUNNY CONDITIONS HAS ENVELOPED CENTRAL NC LATE THIS MORNING-EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BETWEEN THE EASTWARD-RETREATING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ASSOCIATED WITH AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...AND THE DEEPER/MID-UPPER MOIST AXIS OVER AND APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S (WITH PERHAPS AN UPPER 80S OR TWO) OVER THE SANDHILLS/EASTERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN...RANGING TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE THE DEEPER...MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER...AND WEAK OUTFLOW SHOULD ARRIVE AND STUNT INSOLATION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DESPITE THE WARMING SFC TEMPERATURES...A RESIDUAL (BUT ERODING) H7 CAP EVIDENT ON THE 12Z GSO RAOB...AND OTHERWISE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY TO JUST 250-500 J/KG...SINCE DEEP LIFT AND ASSOCIATED COOLING/STEEPENING OF THE LAPSE RATES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO LAG WEST OF THE DIURNALLY-DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR OVER CENTRAL NC...THEREBY MITIGATING ANY APPRECIABLE STRENGTHENING OF THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND AS IT MOVES IN.BY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...THE STRENGTHENING HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION...SHOULD CAUSE A TONGUE OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND SET THE STAGE FOR A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT...AS THE DEEP LAYER FLOW STEADILY STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH ALOFT. INDEED...NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AROUND 500 J/KG TO NEAR 1000 J/KG OVER THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...WILL MATERIALIZE AND SUPPORT THE PROBABLE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION...INCLUDING A CHANCE OF LOW-TOPPED THUNDER...OVER CENTRAL NC. WITH MID LEVEL WINDS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO THE 40-60 KT RANGE - STRONGEST WEST - AND LENGTHENING AND CYCLONICALLY-CURVED FORECAST HODOGRAPHS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WCB AND LLJ...SOME OF THE RELATIVELY DEEPER UPDRAFTS MAY EXHIBIT ROTATION. ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE PROBABILITIES...ALBEIT LOW ONES...WILL BE ADDRESSED WITH THE MAIN AFTERNOON PACKAGE. LOWS OVERNIGHT RANGING FROM AROUND 60 NW TO NEAR 70 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Here's a whole lot of words for a mid package update... BY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...THE STRENGTHENING HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION...SHOULD CAUSE A TONGUE OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND SET THE STAGE FOR A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT...AS THE DEEP LAYER FLOW STEADILY STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH ALOFT. INDEED...NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AROUND 500 J/KG TO NEAR 1000 J/KG OVER THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...WILL MATERIALIZE AND SUPPORT THE PROBABLE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION...INCLUDING A CHANCE OF LOW-TOPPED THUNDER...OVER CENTRAL NC. WITH MID LEVEL WINDS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO THE 40-60 KT RANGE - STRONGEST WEST - AND LENGTHENING AND CYCLONICALLY-CURVED FORECAST HODOGRAPHS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WCB AND LLJ...SOME OF THE RELATIVELY DEEPER UPDRAFTS MAY EXHIBIT ROTATION. ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE PROBABILITIES...ALBEIT LOW ONES...WILL BE ADDRESSED WITH THE MAIN AFTERNOON PACKAGE. LOWS OVERNIGHT RANGING FROM AROUND 60 NW TO NEAR 70 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. Hmmmm not terrible news, I have seen some decent wind events with even marginal looking squalls, and with a bit of a backing wind there could be a 1-2 hr window where it really gets interesting for a few folks. The DP is currently 65 not to shabby for early Oct... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 I wonder who our school system consulted to move the Friday night high school games up to Thursday night? Either way, it was all for nothing! Not one lightning bolt and about 10 minutes of mod rain, lol! The sun will probly be out by the time the games should have started tonight ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 3, 2014 Author Share Posted October 3, 2014 I wonder who our school system consulted to move the Friday night high school games up to Thursday night? Either way, it was all for nothing! Not one lightning bolt and about 10 minutes of mod rain, lol! The sun will probly be out by the time the games should have started tonight ! Biggest news here is the sun shining at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Biggest news here is the sun shining at night. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 RAH said the frost word in there discussion this afternoon. They're downplaying the chances but did mention the possibility. .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...AS OF 1235 PM FRIDAY......CHILLY WEEKEND COMING UP......VERY LOW PROBABILITY (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT OF SCATTERED FROSTSUNDAY MORNING OVER THE COLDER PIEDMONT LOCATIONS)...THE ONLY POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD THIS WEEKEND WOULD BE THE RISK OFSCATTERED FROST IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAYMORNING.SATURDAY WILL HAVE A DEFINITE LATE FALL FEEL... WITH BREEZY NW WINDSADVECTING IN VERY DRY AND MUCH COOLER AIR. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TOREACH 70 IN THE NW PIEDMONT... AND 73-74 IN THE SANDHILLS... EVENWITH SKIES BECOMING SUNNY DURING THE DAY.SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE MODELS SUPPORTS THE CENTER OF THECOLD HIGH PRESSURE TO BE LOCATED OVER GA BY 12Z/SUNDAY. IF THE HIGHWERE FORECAST TO BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF CENTRAL NC... THERE MAY BEMORE THAN A VERY LOW PROBABILITY (GREATER THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE)OF SCATTERED FROST IN THE RURAL PIEDMONT. HOWEVER... IT IS NOTFORECAST TO BE IN THE OPTIMAL POSITION FOR MAXIMUM RADIATIONALCOOLING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY.BOUNDARY LAYER TO SURFACE MIXING SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO SATURDAYNIGHT... WITH THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER BECOMING DECOUPLED FROM WEST TOEAST AFTER 200 AM AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND THE WINDS GODEAD CALM PER GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD STILL STILL GIVE PLENTY OF TIMEFOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE VERY DRY AIR (DEW POINTSFORECAST TO BE IN THE 30S 06Z-12Z/SUNDAY) AFTER BOTTOMING OUT IN THE20S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THE WET TOP SOILS COMBINED WITHTHE GREEN VEGETATION (EXCEPTIONALLY SO FOR MANY AREAS DUE TO THEHEAVY LATE SUMMER RAINS) SHOULD LEAD TO HEAVY DEW FORMATION WITHLITTLE CHANCE FOR THE FROST POINT TO BE OBTAINED.... EVEN IN THECOLDEST PIEDMONT LOCATIONS. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND... EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO RISE WELL INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S NW TO SE BETWEEN 06Z-12Z/SUNDAY MORNING... AND ACTUAL TEMPS FINALLY BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN37-44.THEREFORE... THERE IS ONLY ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOWSBOTTOMING OUT AT 35 IN THE COLDEST LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL NC... ANDABOUT A 50/50 CHANCE OF 37... AND 80 PERCENT OF 38 BEING THEABSOLUTE MIN. HEAVY DEW IS LIKELY... FROST IS NOT. EVEN IF THERE ISSOME SCATTERED FROST IN VERY COLDEST LOCATION... IT SHOULD NOT BEENOUGH TO CAUSE DAMAGE TO CROPS STILL TO BE HARVESTED.SUNDAY... SUNNY AND COOL. HIGHS IN THE 60S.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Biggest news here is the sun shining at night.Sun is out currently, and will still be out at 7, when the games would have started, if they had not jumped the gun and make hasty decisions. But since the models are always wrong, I don't know what they can use to prevent these issues. The only danger to football games tonight is sunburn or windburn ! #FAIL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Sun is out currently, and will still be out at 7, when the games would have started, if they had not jumped the gun and make hasty decisions. But since the models are always wrong, I don't know what they can use to prevent these issues. The only danger to football games tonight is sunburn or windburn ! #FAIL Turfburn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 3, 2014 Author Share Posted October 3, 2014 Sun is out currently, and will still be out at 7, when the games would have started, if they had not jumped the gun and make hasty decisions. But since the models are always wrong, I don't know what they can use to prevent these issues. The only danger to football games tonight is sunburn or windburn ! #FAIL New rule: If the sun is out, you can't call it, tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Look at that 38 for the forecasted low tomorrow night. Winter is almost here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 Look at that 38 for the forecasted low tomorrow night. Winter is almost here! They keep backing ours down as well for Sat and Sun nights, yesterday it was 49, early today it was 46, now they are calling for 44.....be nice to see 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 4, 2014 Author Share Posted October 4, 2014 They keep backing ours down as well for Sat and Sun nights, yesterday it was 49, early today it was 46, now they are calling for 44.....be nice to see 40. Dropped mine to 37. A bit nippy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 I know we're all excited over the prospect of cold weather tomorrow night...but I just noticed on the GFS that the leftovers of Simon in the EPAC ends up getting caught up in the southern jet and by this time next week the tropical influence interacts with the mid-latitude flow to bring a stripe of moisture from the Southern Plains eastward... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 According to today's FFC disco, it looks like large swathes of GA are going to destroy their all-time record lowest high temp for the date. Target seems to be in the 70-72 range for the sites they mentioned, with forecasts having most places struggling to get out of the mid-60s... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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