The Official 2014 Fall Discussion Thread

[El Kabong]

After the models radically shifted, all I could think of was it was a good thing this happened in september and now in the heart of winter. Imagine  the disappointment and anger if this was a potential winter storm. I know I would have been pissed lol

 

 

I think we could be in for some big disappointments and some big surprises this winter if this keeps up. The precip forecast has been off a lot since the summer.

Great points Lookout and Brick.  Our NWS forecast was calling for 1 to 2 inches of rain for Monday as part of Sunday night's forecast package.  After I scanned the radar yesterday morning, I knew the forecast was going to be in BIG trouble.  The rain pockets were light and scattered, save for the far eastern and southeastern parts of Georgia.  We had off and on showers and mist for most of the day totaling a whopping .2 tenths...a far cry from the soaker we were anticipating.  

 

Lookout, you're right...I shudder to think just how much cliff diving would have taken place had this been December or January!  Here was FFC's brief explanation from yesterday afternoon's discussion of why the forecast didn't verify: SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST REGION HAS BEEN SLOWER AND WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS WERE DEPICTING.   

 

Brick, the QPF forecasts definitely need to improve, otherwise we all need to temper our expectations with any winter storms that show up on the models.  Slower and weaker Gulf lows will result in wailing and gnashing of teeth across the Southeast forum! 

[Cold Rain]

Everyone needs to remember that winter storms trend warmer, drier, and less intense than modeled several days out.  This isn't something new.  It happens every year...multiple times.  Avoid disappointment by remembering that.

[jburns]

A reminder.  It is against forum rules to post any maps from a pay site.

 

DraculaWeather is challenging the call in the forum that the maps posted violate forum rules.

 

 

Mod under hood.  Three beer commercials, a gecko, hamsters driving a KIA....

Upon further review, the particular map images posted were purchased by DraculaWeather with the express permission to brand and place on his free site. Once legally on a free site, the images themselves become available to all. Dracula may post future map images he possesses under those terms.  Please reset the forum to accept such images.  Dracula is not charged with a time out. 

[jshetley]

The GSP NWS office says Friday could get kind of rough in our area with a QLCS forming. They are predicting 40-50 knots of shear and 1000-1500 of cape. Those number could very well lead to some severe weather.

[calculus1]

DraculaWeather is challenging the call in the forum that the maps posted violate forum rules.

 

 

Mod under hood.  Three beer commercials, a gecko, hamsters driving a KIA....

Upon further review, the particular map images posted were purchased by DraculaWeather with the express permission to brand and place on his free site. Once legally on a free site, the images themselves become available to all. Dracula may post future map images he possesses under those terms.  Please reset the forum to accept such images.  Dracula is not charged with a time out. 

 

Nicely done, jburns.  Loved the references to football. 

 

(By the way, I think this is the mod under hood image:    )

 

More importantly, kudos on being willing to reverse a call when presented with incontrovertible evidence opposite of your original judgment.  That's what I look for in my hall of fame moderators. 

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Everyone needs to remember that winter storms trend warmer, drier, and less intense than modeled several days out. This isn't something new. It happens every year...multiple times. Avoid disappointment by remembering that.

Is there a reason why they trend warmer, drier, and less intense ?

[Snowless in Carrollton]

The GSP NWS office says Friday could get kind of rough in our area with a QLCS forming. They are predicting 40-50 knots of shear and 1000-1500 of cape. Those number could very well lead to some severe weather.

I guess fall severe weather season is starting early this year.

[Kory]

The GSP NWS office says Friday could get kind of rough in our area with a QLCS forming. They are predicting 40-50 knots of shear and 1000-1500 of cape. Those number could very well lead to some severe weather.

The dominant mode for severe weather in the SE appear to be damaging winds, with the winds with height being mainly unidirectional from the west.  For areas in Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, the threat will be in the morning when instability is lower.  It will progress eastward through the day Friday into the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina for the afternoon and evening hours.  Instability should be a little higher then.  

[Cold Rain]

Is there a reason why they trend warmer, drier, and less intense ?

I've wondered the same thing. I think part of the issue is our perception. AND we have to clarify what we're talking about. One thing is the LR stuff. We see these magnificent Arctic outbreaks and monster snowbombs in the modeling. Of course, when the time comes, you get run of the mill cold and flurries or rain, usually. At least, that's how it seems ("seems" being the operative word). That's what we notice and remember.

How many times do we see epic dryness or warmth, which turns into run of the mill temps and precipitation when the time comes? It happens all the time, but I think we don't remember that as much.

So in reality, I don't know if the models show epic cold and snow, which doesn't verify more than the opposite scenario. It "seems" there are more snowstorms in the LR that don't verify than heat ridges, but I don't really know if that's true.

The other thing is the trend of an actual system in the medium and short range. They too seem to trend warmer and dryer. I *think* models routinely overestimate QPF. I don't have data to back that up, though. It also seems like systems trend NW more than SE with time. That would explain why they trend warmer. But I don't know if real data supports that though.

The bottom line is, for the SE, it is much easier to get rain than snow. This, we know. So, it shouldn't be a shock to see snow chances go down and rain chances go up as the time draws closer. There are just so many things that can mess it up here, outside the higher elevations.

That doesn't really give you an answer. Another part of the equation is the bias of a particular model, but that's something that someone more qualified than I should weigh in on. That doesn't really give although a good answer, but it's the best I can do.

[Jaguars]

First fall air in Northeast Florida this coming weekend. Highs forecast in the upper 70s and lows dropping into the mid-upper 50s. Been waiting a while for this.

[DaculaWeather]

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Mod under hood.  Three beer commercials, a gecko, hamsters driving a KIA....

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Thank you again for the clarification! Much appreciated! 

[FallsLake]

Is there a reason why they trend warmer, drier, and less intense ?

I think what he means is when the models are showing a great/perfect setup don't trust them because they are most likely over-estimating the situation. We tend to see a lot of 20 plus snow depictions from the models only to see that re-adjust back to reality the closer we get. Now we also have a lot situations where the models are too warm and dry and that's when we can see them get colder and wetter the closer we get to the event...... Basically the models suck. That's why we need to keep our excitement in check and listen to the mets as much as possible.

 

Edit: Sorry CR I was typing this and had t deal with kids. Posted it and then saw you added a reply

[downeastnc]

I guess fall severe weather season is starting early this year.

 

Seems both RAH and MHX dowplayed the chance of severe in NC in their afternoon AFD's it looks like at least central and eastern NC have timing issues with the front getting in to late....several days out though and we usually get 1-2 solid squall lines in the fall.

[mackerel_sky]

I thought models underestimate the weight of the cold and underestimate the strength of the wedge? That was a recurring theme last winter season! Now that I have it from a met, that all mods are always wrong, I'm going to be rooting for 33 and rain , two days out!

[WxJordan]

Don't overlook this cold front that will push through the southeast and eastern United States on Friday into Saturday.

 

There will be a very strong line of storms that develop along the front, so I am expecting widespread storms along the cold front, and possibly ahead of the front. I am expecting strong to severe storms Friday afternoon and evening sweeping across the southeast. This is very bad timing with numerous high school football games going on.

 

The 500 mb trough is very strong, the 250 mb jet streak is very very strong, and the moisture flow at 850 mb are very strong. The soundings at HKY looks unstable, with good veering winds and wind shear. CAPE looks to be low, so this would be a high shear, low CAPE frontal passage.

 

We will know more about the severe weather threat on Friday, but the threat does appear to be higher than normal looking at timing and strength of the front.

 

I am not sure if I am allowed to post Americanwx model images here on the forum (please advise if I can), so I will not post them. But this is a very impressive storm system, with a very cool Saturday and Sunday on tap.

 

You can always check out my website for the article describing what is expected to happen. Here is the link: https://www.wxjordan.com/weather-forecast/forecast/35-powerful-cold-front-brings-storms-friday-then-cooler-weather

[GaWx]

Regarding the potential correlation between October temp.'s & the subsequent winter wx, I just did an analysis of Atlanta going back to 1879. Here are the interesting findings, keeping in mind that it is still, of course, a good bit too early to even have a good feel for how Oct. will end up:

The longterm avg. for Oct. is near 62.7. I considered Oct.'s that were either 2+ above 62.7 or 2+ below 62.7. For these 60 Oct.'s, I then looked for DJF's that were either 2+ above normal or 2+ below normal. I found a total of 29 of these 60 Oct.'s in one of these two categories: 19 of these 29 had the same sign in DJF vs. Oct. while 10 of these 29 had the opposite sign. Of these 10, 6 were cold and 4 were warm. The 4 warm ones that had a cold winter to follow were all pretty much centered on weak to low end moderate Nino and included two of the seven coldest winters on record: 1939-40 and 1963-4. The other two were likely within the top 20 cold winters. The 6 cold Oct.'s that went into warm winters were anywhere from strong Nina to dead neutral (i.e ., no +ENSO). This all tells me that neither a cold Oct. nor a warm Oct. would favor a warm winter this time because ENSO is positive. Of course, don't forget that Nino's are biased cold in DJF in the SE US.
Looking at the 19 that kept the same sign for Oct vs DJF, there were two warm/warm that were Nino's: 1951-2 and 2004-5. There were five cold/cold that were Nino's: 1965-6, 1885-6, 1957-8, 1976-7, and 1977-8.

[DaculaWeather]

Very cool weekend! love it! GFS lows.

 

[FallsLake]

Regarding the potential correlation between October temp.'s & the subsequent winter wx, I just did an analysis of Atlanta going back to 1879. Here are the interesting findings, keeping in mind that it is still, of course, a good bit too early to even have a good feel for how Oct. will end up:

The longterm avg. for Oct. is near 62.7. I considered Oct.'s that were either 2+ above 62.7 or 2+ below 62.7. For these 60 Oct.'s, I then looked for DJF's that were either 2+ above normal or 2+ below normal. I found a total of 29 of these 60 Oct.'s in one of these two categories: 19 of these 29 had the same sign in DJF vs. Oct. while 10 of these 29 had the opposite sign. Of these 10, 6 were cold and 4 were warm. The 4 warm ones that had a cold winter to follow were all pretty much centered on weak to low end moderate Nino and included two of the seven coldest winters on record: 1939-40 and 1963-4. The other two were likely within the top 20 cold winters. The 6 cold Oct.'s that went into warm winters were anywhere from strong Nina to dead neutral (i.e ., no +ENSO). This all tells me that neither a cold Oct. nor a warm Oct. would favor a warm winter this time because ENSO is positive. Of course, don't forget that Nino's are biased cold in DJF in the SE US.

Looking at the 19 that kept the same sign for Oct vs DJF, there were two warm/warm that were Nino's: 1951-2 and 2004-5. There were five cold/cold that were Nino's: 1965-6, 1885-6, 1957-8, 1976-7, and 1977-8.

Thanks for the research! So basically if your a cold loving person you can hope for a cold October as well. ....**You can have your cake and eat it too

[mackerel_sky]

Regarding the potential correlation between October temp.'s & the subsequent winter wx, I just did an analysis of Atlanta going back to 1879. Here are the interesting findings, keeping in mind that it is still, of course, a good bit too early to even have a good feel for how Oct. will end up:

The longterm avg. for Oct. is near 62.7. I considered Oct.'s that were either 2+ above 62.7 or 2+ below 62.7. For these 60 Oct.'s, I then looked for DJF's that were either 2+ above normal or 2+ below normal. I found a total of 29 of these 60 Oct.'s in one of these two categories: 19 of these 29 had the same sign in DJF vs. Oct. while 10 of these 29 had the opposite sign. Of these 10, 6 were cold and 4 were warm. The 4 warm ones that had a cold wrinter to follow were all pretty much centered on weak to low end moderate Nino and included two of the seven coldest winters on record: 1939-40 and 1963-4. The other two were likely within the top 20 cold winters. The 6 cold Oct.'s that went into warm winters were anywhere from strong Nina to dead neutral (i.e ., no +ENSO). This all tells me that neither a cold Oct. nor a warm Oct. would favor a warm winter this time because ENSO is positive. Of course, don't forget that Nino's are biased cold in DJF in the SE US.

Looking at the 19 that kept the same sign for Oct vs DJF, there were two warm/warm that were Nino's: 1951-2 and 2004-5. There were five cold/cold that were Nino's: 1965-6, 1885-6, 1957-8, 1976-7, and 1977-8.

Great write up! What has my attention is, the last line! There are some blockbuster winters in there!

We will have to consult JBurns on the 1885-6 winter!

[DaculaWeather]

But... two of the 4 warm ones were the coldest ever. I'd take that. :-)

[FallsLake]

First fall air in Northeast Florida this coming weekend. Highs forecast in the upper 70s and lows dropping into the mid-upper 50s. Been waiting a while for this.

I've been tracking this as well. My sister lives all the way down in Fort Myers and she may actually get some dew points down into the 50s. Up until this point she says the endless summer continues.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=10&model_dd=01&model_init_hh=06&fhour=108&parameter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

[Cold Rain]

Regarding the potential correlation between October temp.'s & the subsequent winter wx, I just did an analysis of Atlanta going back to 1879. Here are the interesting findings, keeping in mind that it is still, of course, a good bit too early to even have a good feel for how Oct. will end up:

The longterm avg. for Oct. is near 62.7. I considered Oct.'s that were either 2+ above 62.7 or 2+ below 62.7. For these 60 Oct.'s, I then looked for DJF's that were either 2+ above normal or 2+ below normal. I found a total of 29 of these 60 Oct.'s in one of these two categories: 19 of these 29 had the same sign in DJF vs. Oct. while 10 of these 29 had the opposite sign. Of these 10, 6 were cold and 4 were warm. The 4 warm ones that had a cold winter to follow were all pretty much centered on weak to low end moderate Nino and included two of the seven coldest winters on record: 1939-40 and 1963-4. The other two were likely within the top 20 cold winters. The 6 cold Oct.'s that went into warm winters were anywhere from strong Nina to dead neutral (i.e ., no +ENSO). This all tells me that neither a cold Oct. nor a warm Oct. would favor a warm winter this time because ENSO is positive. Of course, don't forget that Nino's are biased cold in DJF in the SE US.

Looking at the 19 that kept the same sign for Oct vs DJF, there were two warm/warm that were Nino's: 1951-2 and 2004-5. There were five cold/cold that were Nino's: 1965-6, 1885-6, 1957-8, 1976-7, and 1977-8.

 

Larry, thanks for the research here.  Very interesting stuff!

[Snowless in Carrollton]

I just read the morning discussion from FFC and found myself laughing. Mid 80s and dewpoint near 60 is oppressive ?

 

" NOT MUCH IN

THE WAY OF WIND EITHER SO IT MIGHT BE KIND OF OPPRESSIVE OUT THERE
IN A RELATIVE SENSE...FOR OCTOBER 1."

[DaculaWeather]

I just read the morning discussion from FFC and found myself laughing. Mid 80s and dewpoint near 60 is oppressive ?

 

" NOT MUCH IN

THE WAY OF WIND EITHER SO IT MIGHT BE KIND OF OPPRESSIVE OUT THERE

IN A RELATIVE SENSE...FOR OCTOBER 1."

Did you miss the "in a relative sense" part? :-)

[isohume]

I just read the morning discussion from FFC and found myself laughing. Mid 80s and dewpoint near 60 is oppressive ?

 

" NOT MUCH IN

THE WAY OF WIND EITHER SO IT MIGHT BE KIND OF OPPRESSIVE OUT THERE

IN A RELATIVE SENSE...FOR OCTOBER 1."

 

Why aren't you the SOO at FFC?  

[DaculaWeather]

Why aren't you the SOO at FFC?  

LOL!!! Steve might not like you giving his job away!! :-)

HAHA!

[isohume]

LOL!!! Steve might not like you giving his job away!! :-)

HAHA!

 

Apparently Steve needs to get on 'em or he's toast!   

[Brick Tamland]

I guess fall severe weather season is starting early this year.

 

Usually it's in November in NC. The week before and of Thanksgiving seems to be the weeks we get the most action here.

[Brick Tamland]

And today has been another cloudy, gray day for the most part.

[jburns]

Great write up! What has my attention is, the last line! There are some blockbuster winters in there!

We will have to consult JBurns on the 1885-6 winter!

 

Can't remember.  I was just a kid of 38.