The Official 2014 Fall Discussion Thread

[DaculaWeather]

Yes, all but a few NE counties which are GSP.

I know Tallahassee discontinued the HWO's, Tuscon, Reno, and a couple of others in the Western Region don't issue those any more.

[Isopycnic]

Yes, rain is good.  It makes things grow and allows us to have water to drink.  There are far more days where it doesn't rain than days where it does, so the point about being outside is weak.  If you pay good attention when you drive, you should be ok.  Yeah, some knucklehead can still hit you, but as long as you're doing your job, you're probably going to be fine.  And, you're correct, work usually doesn't close for rain...or for clouds or wind or fog or sun dogs.  They need you to come in and get the job done.  Besides, since it's raining, you don't have anything outside to do anyway, so you might as well go to work and make some money.

+1~

[superjames1992]

No, it is miserable, you can't do anything outside, and people drive like even more idiots when it rains. At least snow here is something different and exciting, and you can use it to stay home and have fun in it. I actually think driving in rain sometimes can be just as dangerous as driving in snow, but my office has never closed for rain.

Good thing is it looks like the rain will only be around for Monday, unless of course the forecast is wrong again, which it has been a lot with regards to rain around here since the summer.

 

I like rainy days.  Nice and peaceful.

[dsaur]

Why do I get the feeling theres going to be very little rain in North AL/GA ?

Because your instincts were absolutely correct! I got more from the cad drizzle than this system. I thought I'd get 2 inches, but got about two hundredths, if I stretch it some due to evaporation from boredom. T

[dsaur]

Yes, rain is good.  It makes things grow and allows us to have water to drink.  There are far more days where it doesn't rain than days where it does, so the point about being outside is weak.  If you pay good attention when you drive, you should be ok.  Yeah, some knucklehead can still hit you, but as long as you're doing your job, you're probably going to be fine.  And, you're correct, work usually doesn't close for rain...or for clouds or wind or fog or sun dogs.  They need you to come in and get the job done.  Besides, since it's raining, you don't have anything outside to do anyway, so you might as well go to work and make some money.

I always brake for Sun Dogs!! T

[Brick Tamland]

Yes, rain is good.  It makes things grow and allows us to have water to drink.  There are far more days where it doesn't rain than days where it does, so the point about being outside is weak.  If you pay good attention when you drive, you should be ok.  Yeah, some knucklehead can still hit you, but as long as you're doing your job, you're probably going to be fine.  And, you're correct, work usually doesn't close for rain...or for clouds or wind or fog or sun dogs.  They need you to come in and get the job done.  Besides, since it's raining, you don't have anything outside to do anyway, so you might as well go to work and make some money.

Or it could just rain a night when most people are sleeping.

[GaWx]

 Per the new Euro weeklies, the SE US looks pretty warm for October as a whole fwiw.

[HKY18]

 Per the new Euro weeklies, the SE US looks pretty warm for October as a whole.

does it have aleutian low?

[GaWx]

does it have aleutian low?

 

There may be a slight tendency for that in the means (slightly lower than average 500 mb heights), but there doesn't seem to be a very stable pattern out there with a fairly changeable pattern at 500 mb from week to week I think.

From what I've seen with KATL, the correlation between Oct. temp.'s and DJF is limited. I'll take a closer look asap.

[mackerel_sky]

There may be a slight tendency for that in the means (slightly lower than average 500 mb heights), but there doesn't seem to be a very stable pattern out there with a fairly changeable pattern at 500 mb from week to week I think.

From what I've seen with KATL, the correlation between Oct. temp.'s and DJF is limited. I'll take a closer look asap.

I thought I read somewhere that a warm October usually led to a colder DJF?

[FallsLake]

I thought I read somewhere that a warm October usually led to a colder DJF?

I've read that as well. Also just from memory, it seems that a cold and stormy October is not a good sign for us SE folks. I say bring on the warm October.

But in the short time I'll enjoy this upcoming weekend -- a true fall forecast:

Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 72.

Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 49.

Sunday Sunny, with a high near 69.

[Cold Rain]

I always brake for Sun Dogs!! T

 

We don't have many of those up this way.  We've got a lot of moon possums though.  Too much urbanization, I guess.

[Cold Rain]

I don't think October temps have a strong correlation one way or another.  According to data that's been posted here and in the mid-Atlantic and New England forums, there are better correlations with both the Aleutian low feature and snow cover extent, both of which we want a lot of.

[FallsLake]

I don't think October temps have a strong correlation one way or another.  According to data that's been posted here and in the mid-Atlantic and New England forums, there are better correlations with both the Aleutian low feature and snow cover extent, both of which we want a lot of.

Your probably right. It seems I initially saw some discussions where the warm October did tend to lead to warm winters; but recently there were other discussions that did not support this thought.

Dealing with the late October storm theory (mine) in which a "big" east coast storm at the end of October leads to a warm winter, logically I know this also should not matter. I only have few sample cases (from memory) where there were storms and the following winter ends up warm.

[Brick Tamland]

I thought it was supposed to be mostly sunny and warm today.

[mackerel_sky]

I don't think October temps have a strong correlation one way or another. According to data that's been posted here and in the mid-Atlantic and New England forums, there are better correlations with both the Aleutian low feature and snow cover extent, both of which we want a lot of.

May not be. But, when the apps, I think even NC got that big, early snow in October and then the year of Sandy, I think we had craptastic winters after those events, if memory serves?

[Isopycnic]

I thought it was supposed to be mostly sunny and warm today.

Relax dude.. IT's only 11am.

 

WRAL...Areas of dense fog and low clouds early today, with partly to mostly sunny skies developing midday into the afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s-80.

 

 

NWS... TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 80. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH THIS MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

[Isopycnic]

Discussion... Although there's probably too many big words for Brick Tamland.

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...

DENSE FOG HAS BEGUN TO LIFT INTO A LOW-OVERCAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS
OF 930 AM THIS MORNING...AND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN LITTLE OR NO ADVECTION AND WEAK
VERTICAL MIXING ASIDE FROM THAT WHICH ARISES FROM INCREASING
INSOLATION. EXPECT HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S

[Cold Rain]

I thought it was supposed to be mostly sunny and warm today.

 

Are you at work?

[Cold Rain]

Your probably right. It seems I initially saw some discussions where the warm October did tend to lead to warm winters; but recently there were other discussions that did not support this thought.

Dealing with the late October storm theory (mine) in which a "big" east coast storm at the end of October leads to a warm winter, logically I know this also should not matter. I only have few sample cases (from memory) where there were storms and the following winter ends up warm.

 

 

May not be. But, when the apps, I think even NC got that big, early snow in October and then the year of Sandy, I think we had craptastic winters after those events, if memory serves?

 

Going off of recent memory, big noreasters in October haven't yielded great winters for us, I agree.  I can only remember two instances, though.  There may be some correlation there, but I wouldn't put a lot of weight on it without some research.  The other thing to consider is that most of our winters over the last 20 years have sucked.  So, I think there's more going on than just a rouge snowstorm in October to worry about.

[FallsLake]

Going off of recent memory, big noreasters in October haven't yielded great winters for us, I agree.  I can only remember two instances, though.  There may be some correlation there, but I wouldn't put a lot of weight on it without some research.  The other thing to consider is that most of our winters over the last 20 years have sucked.  So, I think there's more going on than just a rouge snowstorm in October to worry about.

Just to be safe, I'll be pulling for a tranquil end to October. If not for the upcoming winter pattern then for the trick-or-treaters.

[Brick Tamland]

Could we see some sever weather Friday? From WxSouth:

 

This is looking like one of the strongest cold fronts in October in a long time. It is going to R-A-C-E eastward, and whip-lash across the mountains and East Coast Friday night. The upper levels show strong "negative tilt" in the Ohio Valley and eastern Lakes region--so that may be enough for some severe weather ahead of the front from the Northeast down through the Tennessee Valley and upper Southeast. Expect gusty winds with the frontal passage. Should be an interesting night at the High School ballgames Friday night up and down the East Coast.

The weekend looks great.

[Cold Rain]

Just to be safe, I'll be pulling for a tranquil end to October. If not for the upcoming winter pattern then for the trick-or-treaters.

 

Agree!

[mackerel_sky]

Just to be safe, I'll be pulling for a tranquil end to October. If not for the upcoming winter pattern then for the trick-or-treaters.

Friday could be interesting, but I got 10:1 odds of a dry fropa here, with redevelopment over about CLT! I would not mind above normal to normal temps through November , then we would be ready to rock! As Brick would say:" the pendulum has to swing the other way" at some point!

[Cold Rain]

Could we see some sever weather Friday? From WxSouth:

 

This is looking like one of the strongest cold fronts in October in a long time. It is going to R-A-C-E eastward, and whip-lash across the mountains and East Coast Friday night. The upper levels show strong "negative tilt" in the Ohio Valley and eastern Lakes region--so that may be enough for some severe weather ahead of the front from the Northeast down through the Tennessee Valley and upper Southeast. Expect gusty winds with the frontal passage. Should be an interesting night at the High School ballgames Friday night up and down the East Coast.

The weekend looks great.

 

Here's the 12z GFS at 90 hr.  Looks pretty good:

 

[FallsLake]

Here's the 12z GFS at 90 hr.  Looks pretty good:

The cool shot that it brings looks pretty good as well. At hour 111 the 850 zero line is running right through central VA. Most of NC is at 3 or lower.

Edit: Stupid url wont work...

[Lookout]

If the models are this bad during the winter we may very well get another shot at a big winter storm out of the blue just like Jan 24 2000. The biggest storm I can remember here and it was totally unforecasted even as heavy snow was falling.

 

After the models radically shifted, all I could think of was it was a good thing this happened in september and now in the heart of winter. Imagine  the disappointment and anger if this was a potential winter storm. I know I would have been pissed lol

[FallsLake]

Impressive dew point temps at hour 114:

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=09&model_dd=30&model_init_hh=12&fhour=114&parameter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

[Brick Tamland]

After the models radically shifted, all I could think of was it was a good thing this happened in september and now in the heart of winter. Imagine  the disappointment and anger if this was a potential winter storm. I know I would have been pissed lol

 

I think we could be in for some big disappointments and some big surprises this winter if this keeps up. The precip forecast has been off a lot since the summer.

[mackerel_sky]

I think we could be in for some big disappointments and some big surprises this winter if this keeps up. The precip forecast has been off a lot since the summer.

I can't recall a good surprise this whole summer in my area! Only dissapointments with big totals of rain 1-3 days out, only to get nothing , to maybe 5% of what the models were showing! This winter could be full of heartache, prepare now!