isohume Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Imagine that, QPF has been significantly reduced! I am shocked! Will be lucky to get .5 , I can't wait Probably a good thing we didn't throw 5-6 inches in the fcst grids like you wanted, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Well thats a much different look on the 12z GFS compared to yesterdays. Tough time to be a forecaster with the disparity gap among models currently so large. Props to the NWS for not overhyping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Probably a good thing we didn't throw 5-6 inches in the fcst grids like you wanted, eh?True! I didn't want y'all to say it, I just wanted it to happen! I still don't understand how the models show ridiculous amounts over and over again two days out and be down to a quarter inch or less , come verification time. Happened all summer long! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 True! I didn't want y'all to say it, I just wanted it to happen! I still don't understand how the models show ridiculous amounts over and over again two days out and be down to a quarter inch or less , come verification time. Happened all summer long! The models are always wrong...especially with any type of convection involved. The interaction between the small scale forcings, mass fields, instability, advections, etc are always evolving and interacting differently through time. The models cannot explicitly perform all these calculations on the scales they happen. The models, therefore, parameterize many convective processes, which basically means they use proxies or assumptions for various processes they do see on the larger scale. Of course, when you run models out through time, you also introduce inherent non-linear errors into the output due to the differential equations used. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 If the models are this bad during the winter we may very well get another shot at a big winter storm out of the blue just like Jan 24 2000. The biggest storm I can remember here and it was totally unforecasted even as heavy snow was falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Very foggy and drizzly. Returns are starting to fire up south of here (Atlanta), and streaming to the north. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=FFC&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes http://www.localwireless.com/wap/weather/radar/animated/?sid=1001&state=GA&city=Atlanta&d=540&zc=&submit=Save&showstorms=10&showids=1&r=96.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 28, 2014 Author Share Posted September 28, 2014 A reminder. It is against forum rules to post any maps from a pay site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Euro has a handsome cold shot next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 This forecast has a high bust potential tomorrow. While showers and storms are likely across the I-85 corridor and southward through Georgia and South Carolina, the question remains how strong the forcing will be north and if the storms rob moisture from surging northward. I can see a good portion of North Carolina getting robbed from this type of system. I am still forecasting around a quarter of an inch in the mountains, foothills and piedmont of North Carolina; however, I can see this area getting very little rain from this system. On the other side of the coin, some areas through Georgia and South Carolina picking up a good inch of rain from this storm system. Higher totals will also be possible depending on convection in this area. Looks like we get into a quiet pattern behind this system through Thursday. Average temperatures through most of the period with mostly sunny skies. The front that approaches Friday may not have much fanfare with it as the best forcing is racing northward before reaching the southeast. Behind the front, models are indicating a cool airmass moving into the southeast for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Why do I get the feeling theres going to be very little rain in North AL/GA ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Is the front coming through Friday going to make a clean sweep through or get hung up around 1-20 again? What's it looking like as of now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Is the front coming through Friday going to make a clean sweep through or get hung up around 1-20 again? What's it looking like as of now? supposed to make a clean sweep through Birmingham and Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machetemoonlight Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Why do I get the feeling theres going to be very little rain in North AL/GA ? hypnotism? traumatic brain injury? chemical imbalance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 hypnotism? traumatic brain injury? chemical imbalance? LOL< Rain is already breaking out.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 CPC is showing possibly the first BIG cool down for the central part of the country for the second week of October. EPO goes sharply negative and allows cold air to funnel in east of the Rockies. Long range models have been showing the first big snow for the Northern Plains. This coincides quite well with those forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 WPC 5 day QPF shows us with maybe .25" from now through Friday. What a joke this system turned out to be. Atlanta has 0.66" for September and they may finish with under an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 ^ I love rain. It's awesome...especially heavy rain. No, it is miserable, you can't do anything outside, and people drive like even more idiots when it rains. At least snow here is something different and exciting, and you can use it to stay home and have fun in it. I actually think driving in rain sometimes can be just as dangerous as driving in snow, but my office has never closed for rain. Good thing is it looks like the rain will only be around for Monday, unless of course the forecast is wrong again, which it has been a lot with regards to rain around here since the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 WPC 5 day QPF shows us with maybe .25" from now through Friday. What a joke this system turned out to be. Atlanta has 0.66" for September and they may finish with under an inch.Not as impressive as us having only 0.23 in July which is our wettest month.WPC has us in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. No flood watches because NWS Jacksonville says it's been dry lately even though we are over 10 inches of rain for the month and everyone to the west is in a flood watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 Does anyone know if the NWS has completely eliminated the NOW product (Short Term Forecasts) ? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 Not as impressive as us having only 0.23 in July which is our wettest month. WPC has us in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. No flood watches because NWS Jacksonville says it's been dry lately even though we are over 10 inches of rain for the month and everyone to the west is in a flood watch. Well, September is typically a very dry month in Atlanta, but not THIS dry. October is actually the driest month on average, so I guess we better get used to these dry conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 Does anyone know if the NWS has completely eliminated the NOW product (Short Term Forecasts) ? Thanks Eastern region replaced them with the near term fcst. Southern region still issues them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 The 0z GFS shows next weekend with low temps in the 40s from NE Al, N GA, N SC, and most of NC. We've seen this depicting before to only trend warmer and wetter as we get closer. Hopefully it will be true this time and we'll see that first true "crisp" day of fall. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=09&model_dd=29&model_init_hh=00&fhour=156¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 Eastern region replaced them with the near term fcst. Southern region still issues them. Is there a 3 alpha product code for the Near Term Forecast? The nowcast code was NOW Appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 Is there a 3 alpha product code for the Near Term Forecast? The nowcast code was NOW Appreciated. No it's not a separate PIL. It's the first section in the AFD. It's updated every 3 hrs or sooner if conditions warrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 No it's not a separate PIL. It's the first section in the AFD. It's updated every 3 hrs or sooner if conditions warrant. Perfect. That is what I thought. The reason I ask is for those of us that run the Weatherstar 4000 Simulator, the Nowcasts are no longer showing up as they were being retrieved by the NOW product. Thanks again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 I wish there was a little more consistency between regions in terms of what is issued and displayed. It appears the Eastern Region does things a little differently than the other regions. There are some offices in the southern region that are discontinuing the HWO's, Tallahassee is one of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 No it's not a separate PIL. It's the first section in the AFD. It's updated every 3 hrs or sooner if conditions warrant. Perfect. That is what I thought. The reason I ask is for those of us that run the Weatherstar 4000 Simulator, the Nowcasts are no longer showing up as they were being retrieved by the NOW product. Thanks again. I wish they never got rid of it. It was usually handled by the HMT desk, now it's part of the aviation desk's duties, which is normally quite busy on it's own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 I wish there was a little more consistency between regions in terms of what is issued and displayed. It appears the Eastern Region does things a little differently than the other regions. There are some offices in the southern region that are discontinuing the HWO's, Tallahassee is one of those. The HWO isn't going away here, but we are discontinuing it's display on the WWA map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 No, it is miserable, you can't do anything outside, and people drive like even more idiots when it rains. At least snow here is something different and exciting, and you can use it to stay home and have fun in it. I actually think driving in rain sometimes can be just as dangerous as driving in snow, but my office has never closed for rain. Good thing is it looks like the rain will only be around for Monday, unless of course the forecast is wrong again, which it has been a lot with regards to rain around here since the summer. Yes, rain is good. It makes things grow and allows us to have water to drink. There are far more days where it doesn't rain than days where it does, so the point about being outside is weak. If you pay good attention when you drive, you should be ok. Yeah, some knucklehead can still hit you, but as long as you're doing your job, you're probably going to be fine. And, you're correct, work usually doesn't close for rain...or for clouds or wind or fog or sun dogs. They need you to come in and get the job done. Besides, since it's raining, you don't have anything outside to do anyway, so you might as well go to work and make some money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 I wish there was a little more consistency between regions in terms of what is issued and displayed. It appears the Eastern Region does things a little differently than the other regions. There are some offices in the southern region that are discontinuing the HWO's, Tallahassee is one of those. Georgia is in the Southern Region right ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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