DaculaWeather Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 Here's the 12Z 4k NAM, not what the GFS is showing for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 :-) Thanks That map is not on the website. It's my paid Hazwx media subscription weather maps. Here's the 12Z GFS. Don't hesitate to ask about finding something on my site though, I've been exploring different ways to organize all the pages to make things easier to find. Well, no wonder I couldn't find it. Thanks for posting the larger SE map for both the GFS and the NAM 4K. You guessed correctly that I was interested in seeing the totals for MBY. Now, I'll have to stop posting (even cloaked) MBY questions or I might get 5-posted, and my posts will definitely get moved to banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 27, 2014 Author Share Posted September 27, 2014 Well, no wonder I couldn't find it. Thanks for posting the larger SE map for both the GFS and the NAM 4K. You guessed correctly that I was interested in seeing the totals for MBY. Now, I'll have to stop posting (even cloaked) MBY questions or I might get 5-posted, and my posts will definitely get moved to banter. Nah. It's still the slow season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 Steve, I'm going with 2 or 3 inches. I think this might be like the fabled years of old this year, where the gulf lows just keep rolling in and the rain is always 1 1/2 to 3 inches, each and every time Like the 70's when real weather happened, well, except 1993. No convection will rob me..... maybe you, and folks from I20 on, lol, but close to the furnace I still get the rain, even when all else get the snow Well, except for that danged dry slot, but that pattern is ended...I just have to believe, and think happy thoughts! In the 70's every storm was a real storm, not these little sprinkle flizzards we get with drought rain. I saw enough 32's and heavy rain, to fill a dozen cisterns with tons of cold, gritty, bitter disappointment water. Sprinkled in with storms to remember. And it may be coming back. I saw that research work yesterday, and it named some very good years in the 60's when it was bone dry, but bitterly cold, and the seventies when it was super wet, and occasionally got cold enough Things don't have to be perfect, just get enough rain, and be winter. Hang on tight! If it's not this year, that maybe next, or the one after. Oh, it's coming T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 :-) Thanks That map is not on the website. It's my paid Hazwx media subscription weather maps. Here's the 12Z GFS. Don't hesitate to ask about finding something on my site though, I've been exploring different ways to organize all the pages to make things easier to find. rain_12z_gfs_sat_mon.png There is no way this map will verify. I haven't seen that much rain in the last 2 months combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 Here's the 12Z 4k NAM, not what the GFS is showing for sure. man_8pm non.png This map seems much more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 I really don't understand that when a model shows alot of precip, the forecasters almost always discount it. The GFS is showing 5-6 inch swath of rain, and GSP discussion is giving it almost no weight in their forcast and going with other models!? They seem to do this ALOT with regards to snow!! With the poor performance of the models this summer, the GFS could be the right model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 I really don't understand that when a model shows alot of precip, the forecasters almost always discount it. The GFS is showing 5-6 inch swath of rain, and GSP discussion is giving it almost no weight in their forcast and going with other models!? They seem to do this ALOT with regards to snow!! With the poor performance of the models this summer, the GFS could be the right model. You're comparing apples to oranges. The models always do bad in the warm season as far as timing/placement/amount of convective qpf. It's the most difficult season to forecast for. This upcoming synoptic system is not being handled well by the 12z GFS and other models with the low end coastal convection noted and the spurious and likely overly responded upon PV anomally. I noticed the 18z GFS has cut qpf totals down quite a bit across the GSP FA, while sigfntly increasing the coastal response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 NWS at KFFC still says 2-3 inches widespread over our CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 Yep the 18z gfs shows our area with only 1 to maybe 1.5 inches of rain now. Also the cutoff moved a little closer to us with east TN and NW GA getting virtually nothing. It also shows only another .50 or so beyond that all the way out to 16 days so if we somehow miss this event it could be dry for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtg947h Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Here's the 12Z 4k NAM, not what the GFS is showing for sure. man_8pm non.png I could live with that. I'm getting sick of rain and clouds at this point; I just want a week or two of clear sunny weather so I can go do something, and so the ground can dry out a bit for my construction project. I don't think I've seen blue sky for at least a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 I could live with that. I'm getting sick of rain and clouds at this point; I just want a week or two of clear sunny weather so I can go do something, and so the ground can dry out a bit for my construction project. I don't think I've seen blue sky for at least a week The NAM looks quite under done, imo.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 18Z GFS (left) 4KM NAM (right) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 18Z GFS (left) 4KM NAM (right) wow, thats quite a spread lol. glad i am not having to make a forecast for the public with such divergent models - we are not all that far out from the rain event either. its been cloudy here for days but no rain - it would be nice to get a good dousing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 You guys and gals would $hit in your britches for a Gulf Low during the cold season...we'll we got one coming Sunday/Monday but I wouldn't know any better by the reaction on here. Because rain is boring and snow is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 ^ I love rain. It's awesome...especially heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 ^ I love rain. It's awesome...especially heavy rain.you mean heavy cold rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 ^ I love rain. It's awesome...especially heavy rain.Sorry, you will be dissapointed with this one, I'm taking all the heavy rain before it gets there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Sorry, you will be dissapointed with this one, I'm taking all the heavy rain before it gets there! 6z GFS says our area will see .50 now at best with less than .25 on the state line with NC. Heavy rain is from I-20 and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 6z has dropped us back to .12" --- the usual reasons again -- more Southerly track and convection blocking the moisture transport. This time yesterday, the models were dumping another round of 1"-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 From KFFC Their discussions have improved so much since last year, do they have new people in charge there? FXUS62 KFFC 280735 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 335 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SORT OF A DIFFICULT SHORT TERM FORECAST TODAY. WEAK DAMMING REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING BUT WITH MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER MIDLEVEL WEAKNESS IN THE EASTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL GIVE WAY TO A SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WILL START OFF RIGHT AWAY AND SAY THAT THE GFS IS DEFINITELY NOT THE PREFERRED MODEL OF CHOICE THIS MORNING. ALL GUIDANCE HAS HAD ISSUES THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THE GFS IS ESPECIALLY RIDDEN WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND AS A RESULT HAS A MUCH STRONGER SURFACE LOW AND SOME CRAZY BULLSEYES IN ITS QPF FIELD. HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD A BLEND OF OTHER GUIDANCE VALUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GUIDANCE ALSO HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING WHAT IS CURRENTLY OUT THERE...OR MORE SPECIFICALLY...WHAT IS NOT CURRENTLY OUT THERE AS HIRES MODELS HAD PREDICTED RAINFALL ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE GULF COAST BY THIS TIME...AND NOT MUCH IS FALLING JUST YET. AGREE WITH LATEST TRENDS TO DELAY ONSET OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL A LITTLE LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE SOUTHEAST. PW VALUES INCREASE TO FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS OF OVER 2 INCHES...2.2-2.3 INCHES MONDAY MORNING. THAT IS ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR KFFC...AND NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR KTAE...SO DEFINITELY ABNORMALLY MOIST. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...DEFINITELY CONCERNED THAT GULF COAST CONVECTION MAY CUT OFF MOISTURE FLUX INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA...AND THE NAM IS TRYING TO PICK UP ON THIS WITH MOISTURE FLUX VECTORS REALLY LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE INCOMING SURFACE LOW. 06Z WPC QPF HAS TAKEN ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT TURN AND REDUCED OVERALL STORM TOTALS AND KEPT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. AGREE WITH THIS FOR THE MOST PART BUT DID EXPAND LIGHT QPF VALUES FURTHER NORTH. EXPECT THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL GENERALLY FALL STARTING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND EXPANDING INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH MONDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES INTO THE AREA. SEE ABSOLUTELY NO REASON TO NOT GO 100 PERCENT POP OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA...CORRESPONDING WITH THE HIGHEST QPF. 100 POP PROBABLY WARRANTED LATER INTO MONDAY BUT CONFIDENCE DECREASES THE FARTHER OUT WE GO. AND SPEAKING OF CONFIDENCE...CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. GIVEN INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN MODELS AND RUNS PLUS THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION CONCERNS...JUST NOT QUITE SURE WHAT THE OVERALL QPF PATTERN WILL LOOK LIKE. RIGHT NOW...BEST QPF REMAINS IN CENTRAL GEORGIA WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE HEAVIER RAIN ANYWAY. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED AMOUNTS ABOVE CURRENTLY-ADVERTISED QPF...AND CANNOT RULE OUT HEAVIER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH AS WELL. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH IN OVERALL QPF PATTERN. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY MINIMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. BEST ML/SBCAPE VALUES REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AND REALLY NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...WITH THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. NO CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON PATTERN OF RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER. FOR TODAY...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO NEAR /OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW/ NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE ONSET OF RAIN...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TONIGHT. FOR MONDAY...WENT WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH BUT WITH SOME BIAS CORRECTION ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST ZONES...RESULTING IN SOME AREAS HOVERING NEAR 70 FOR HIGHS. THINK THIS IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP EXPECTED. TDP .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS FOR LOW TRACK...BUT IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH TIMING. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH WAS CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD EMERGE OFF THE SE COAST ON TUESDAY AND TRACK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY AS A SHARP COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE FROPA TIMING OF LATE FRIDAY/ EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. NO MAJOR TWEAKS TO POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. POPS SHOULD START INCREASING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE ALSO STARTED TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH FRIDAYS FRONT. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR NEXT WEEKEND. NLISTEMAA && AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE... CIGS NOT LOWERING AS FAST AS EARLIER EXPECTED SO HAVE SLOWED DOWN BRINGING IN MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...HOLDING OFF UNTIL 10Z OR SO. DELAY IN ONSET OF RAIN AS WELL MIGHT NOT KEEP CIGS QUITE AS LOW AS EARLIER EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...BUT GENERALLY KEPT CONDITIONS MVFR. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF LOW VFR ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHRA MOVES IN BETWEEN 18-21Z...POSSIBLY EARLIER AT CSG...AND CIGS SHOULD LOWER AGAIN SOON THEREAFTER. HAVE INTRODUCED IFR CIGS FOR MONDAY MORNING. WINDS E THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY 5-10KT. //ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE... MEDIUM ON CIGS. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 NAM and GFS are still pretty far apart. GFS looks over done IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 If you ask the NAM, we're not getting much of anything here in Georgia, but the GFS thinks we're gonna drown. 06Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Here's the 3pm simulated radar from the HRRR and NAM. HRRR looks more plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Those totals printed out by the GFS were way too inflated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Imagine that, QPF has been significantly reduced! I am shocked! Will be lucky to get .5 , I can't wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Seems like the heavier stuff it trending south. 12Z NAM 48hr totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 12z NAM --- .06" for this (KRDU) area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 Not even a tenth IMBY on the NAM, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 I guess those model upgrades are really working well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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