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The Official 2014 Fall Discussion Thread

jburns

By jburns,
in Southeastern States

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

I don't know what the deal is, but the local forecast has really been off a lot ever since summer when it comes to precip. WRAL said Wednesday that it would dry out Thursday. It was raining Thursday morning. They didn't have rain at all in the forecast yesterday for today. It's raining again this morning. I don't know if the pattern since summer has been unusual and hard to forecast, but they have been off both ways when it comes to the precip. Sometimes a lot more was forecasted than we actually received, and then other times like the past few days the rain has been more and/or lasted longer than forecasted.

 

I really hope we get some nice DRY fall days soon.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

I don't know what the deal is, but the local forecast has really been off a lot ever since summer when it comes to precip. WRAL said Wednesday that it would dry out Thursday. It was raining Thursday morning. They didn't have rain at all in the forecast yesterday for today. It's raining again this morning. I don't know if the pattern since summer has been unusual and hard to forecast, but they have been off both ways when it comes to the precip. Sometimes a lot more was forecasted than we actually received, and then other times like the past few days the rain has been more and/or lasted longer than forecasted.

 

I really hope we get some nice DRY fall days soon.

 

The weekend should be good, Brick.

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

Most of the models are showing a widespread heavy rain event over my area on Sun night and Monday ! Most show 1-2 inches and a couple show 2-4! :). Now let's see if this will pan out or we get a quarter inch , like we have most of the summer when models show this 2-3 days out! It's very dusty around here and would be nice to get the models dialed in before winter storms get here!

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sparklecity

sparklecity

Posted
Posted

Most of the models are showing a widespread heavy rain event over my area on Sun night and Monday ! Most show 1-2 inches and a couple show 2-4! :). Now let's see if this will pan out or we get a quarter inch , like we have most of the summer when models show this 2-3 days out! It's very dusty around here and would be nice to get the models dialed in before winter storms get here!

 

GSP already mentioning convection in the gulf robbing our moisture transport.  There's your sign winter is coming.  :whistle:

 

THE 00Z EC HAS A SW-NE SWATH OF 3-4 INCH QPF FROM NE GA NORTHEAST

THROUGH GSP AND HKY. THE 12Z GFS HAS AN E-W SWATH OF HEAVY QPF IN

THE 3-4 INCH RANGE FROM ABOUT ELBERT COUNTY GA...EAST ACROSS THE

SOUTHERN UPSTATE. WHILE THE 12Z NAM HAS A 2-3 INCH SWATH OF QPF FROM

NE GA THORUGH THE WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS. THE 12Z CMC IS GFS-LIKE BUT

WITH A SWATH OF 1-2 INCHES ACROSS NE GA...THE UPSTATE AND CHARLOTTE.

THE WPC QPF FORECASTS SEEM TO FAVOR A TONED DOWN GFS FARTHER TO THE

S...WITH A 2+ INCH QPF SWATH ACROS THE DEEP SOUTH WITH JUST ABOUT AN

INCH OVER NE GA AND THE SC UPSTATE. A WILD CARD IS ALWAYS WHETHER

DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN GOM/DEEP SOUTH WILL DISRUPT

MOISTURE FLUX INTO NE GA/WESTERN CAROLINAS. HENCE...WILL BUY INTO

THE IDEA OF A SOAKING RAIN EVENT...BUT AT THIS POINT WILL TEMPER

QPF FORECASTS MORE IN LINE WITH WPC. WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW A

GFS/SREF SCENARIO IN KEEPING THE AREA DRY THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN

RAMPING UP THE POPS OVER NE GA AND SW MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL THEN SPREAD THE RAIN EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT

AND MONDAY. WILL STAY CLOSE TO OUR CONSENSUS BLEND FOR TEMPS SAT

NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...BUT TREND TOWARD THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE

ON MONDAY WITH EXPECTED WET WEDGE.

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

Any kind of gulf low will be appreciated around here.  We are a good bit behind and need rain all fall.  I hope this is the first of a long train of gom lows that will go on out for months :) 3 inches of rain will do nicely, but I'll take 2 if I have to :)  I've gotten rain every morning for a few days now, but wedge drizzle, Atlantic stuff,  not the real deal the gulf can bring. T

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jburns

jburns

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You guys and gals would $hit in your britches for a Gulf Low during the cold season...we'll we got one coming Sunday/Monday but I wouldn't know any better by the reaction on here.

 

We need to talk this one up...

Not too exciting when the zero at 850 isotherm is over Santa's workshop.

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

Any kind of gulf low will be appreciated around here.  We are a good bit behind and need rain all fall.  I hope this is the first of a long train of gom lows that will go on out for months :) 3 inches of rain will do nicely, but I'll take 2 if I have to :)  I've gotten rain every morning for a few days now, but wedge drizzle, Atlantic stuff,  not the real deal the gulf can bring. T

Hope the convection near the Gulf doesn't cut off the moisture like it usually does.

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Iceagewhereartthou

Iceagewhereartthou

Posted
Posted

Most of the models are showing a widespread heavy rain event over my area on Sun night and Monday ! Most show 1-2 inches and a couple show 2-4! :). Now let's see if this will pan out or we get a quarter inch , like we have most of the summer when models show this 2-3 days out! It's very dusty around here and would be nice to get the models dialed in before winter storms get here!

Mack, I couldn't disagree more. I'm in Easley and I am sick of rain. I feel like it has been raining all summer except about a three week break in July. How can our perceptions be so different just 20 miles apart? :)

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

Mack, I couldn't disagree more. I'm in Easley and I am sick of rain. I feel like it has been raining all summer except about a three week break in July. How can our perceptions be so different just 20 miles apart? :)

There have been very few " system " rain events over the summer that have produced, so the predominant form of precip has been pop- up thunderstorms, and I have been missed alot by 5-10 miles, so you may be 5-10 inches ahead of me in precip for the summer. Perfect example: the super flooding in greenville , where they got 6+ inches in downtown, we got about an inch, 5 miles south of downtown! So selfishly, I need alot of rain in my backyard
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Hvward

Hvward

Posted
Posted

Looks like gulf coast convection really cuts our totals down.

 

Oh it will. I doubt we even get 1/2".

 

 

Usual optimism I see.  As Marion eluded too, a big rain producer is headed our way.  The euro has been hinting at this for days on the 500mb maps and now the GFS is finally catching on.  Sure convection in the gulf could rob some moisture but that map still shows 1"+ for a widespread area.  Plus it is the GFS who has just recently joined the party.  High pressure building in the gulf behind the storm might not let the system hang around down there too long anyways.  Also, the vort max looks to be over Central AL on Monday afternoon & Central Ga  Monday night so I expect that to be the area of greatest lift.  No one is ruling out moisture robbing from convection on the gulf, but lets wait till a little closer to call a bust since you're basing your opinion off the GFS.

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Hvward

Hvward

Posted
Posted

I'm hearing talk that there could be a big cold front come through next weekend with much cooler air. Could it be true ?

 

Euro & GFS are both showing a strong trough or a cut off low possibly tracking through the Ohio Valley and NE.  GFS brings it earlier than the Euro but the Euro appears to be the stronger solution of the two.  Right now it is hearsay since it is day 8-10 but if the Euro shows the same solution in 3-4 days, we could be talking about a nice cool off in the long range.  Vorticity max moves right over WNC on the Euro and thickness values of 558 usually bring flakes to the very high peaks.  For right now though, most are focusing on the up and coming threat since it is the most immediate.

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

The 12z GFS says the area from around Birmingham through Atlanta to GSP and Charlotte gets pounded with heavy rain from this system. Widespread 3-4 amounts with some spots up to 5 inches.

I'll take lots of pictures! At this juncture, a 2-4 inch soaking rain , would equal the same excitement level as a 12 inch snow, and that's saying alot!!
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Hvward

Hvward

Posted
Posted

The 12z GFS says the area from around Birmingham through Atlanta to GSP and Charlotte gets pounded with heavy rain from this system. Widespread 3-4 amounts with some spots up to 5 inches.  

 

:clap: See doesn't it feel much better to post something with an optimistic twist?  GFS is finally showing up to the party as usual fashionably late, but nonetheless here.  It will be interesting to see how orographic lift affects WNC.  These type event are where the SW mountains like the Balsams really cash in, so I wouldn't be surprised at all to see some decent flash flooding in Transylvania Co. or Macon Co.  Hopefully some of you guys that have been missing out on airmass T-storms will benefit from widespread precip.  This will be fun to track imo. 

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

Steve, you have an awesome website, but because you have so many features, I can't always find what I'm looking for.  Where on your site do you get the maps like you posted above?

:-) Thanks

That map is not on the website. It's my paid Hazwx media subscription weather maps. Here's the 12Z GFS. Don't hesitate to ask about finding something on my site though, I've been exploring different ways to organize all the pages to make things easier to find.

 

 

 

Please do not post maps from a paid site.

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