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The Official 2014 Fall Discussion Thread


jburns

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I am not sure where you are getting that information but the official high on that date for KATL isn't 90.

 

The high reported at KATL was 90F. The poster GaWx didn't say the official high reported at the COOP station, which is what you're referring too. If he meant the official high, he should have said it.

 

And I got my data from the State Climate Office of NC. The temperature reached 90F at KATL at 16:00 on 10/12/1979.

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The high reported at KATL was 90F. The poster GaWx didn't say the official high reported at the COOP station, which is what you're referring too. If he meant the official high, he should have said it.

 

And I got my data from the State Climate Office of NC. The temperature reached 90F at KATL at 16:00 on 10/12/1979.

 

 

KATL - Hartsfield which is what he was talking about was 81 on that date.

 

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KATL - Hartsfield which is what he was talking about was 81 on that date.

 

attachicon.gifGHCND_USW00013874_1979-10-1.pdf

 

I think you're confused by what I'm saying.

 

The official NWS highs are reported from co-located COOP stations, in this case COOP station 090451. You are correct that this station reported a high of 81.

 

However, the actual ASOS sensor at KATL reported a high of 90F. 

 

If someone can direct me on how to upload an image I can show you because I have a screenshot of the data.

 

Edit: Nevermind, figured it out. Sorry about the large size. The first image is the ASOS data and the second image is the COOP data.

post-11601-0-60480700-1411660243_thumb.p

post-11601-0-12322800-1411660251_thumb.p

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I think you're confused by what I'm saying.

 

The official NWS highs are reported from co-located COOP stations, in this case COOP station 090451. You are correct that this station reported a high of 81.

 

However, the actual ASOS sensor at KATL reported a high of 90F. 

 

If someone can direct me on how to upload an image I can show you because I have a screenshot of the data.

 

Edit: Nevermind, figured it out. Sorry about the large size.

 

 

I don't buy a 9 degree difference in what you are describing.  I am going to take the Climate data I linked as the most reliable source available.  If you can prove your assertion in a similar way that I did I would be glad to look at any reliable information you can provide.

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I don't buy a 9 degree difference in what you are describing.  I am going to take the Climate data I linked as the most reliable source available.  If you can prove your assertion in a similar way that I did I would be glad to look at any reliable information you can provide.

 

I provided the data for your analysis. Since GaWx said KATL the actual ASOS sensor measured a high of 90F in October most recently on 10/12/1979 not 1954.

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I provided the data for your analysis. Since GaWx said KATL the actual ASOS sensor measured a high of 90F in October most recently on 10/12/1979 not 1954.

 

What does QC1 mean next to that reading?  Also do you believe the temperature went from 80 at 3:00PM to 90 at 4:00PM and then back down to 79 at 5:00PM?  Something is wrong with that reading and I have a feeling QC1 will tell us what that was.

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What does QC1 mean next to that reading?  Also do you believe the temperature went from 80 at 3:00PM to 90 at 4:00PM and then back down to 79 at 5:00PM?  Something is wrong with that reading and I have a feeling QC1 will tell us what that was.

 

It was likely flagged for what you mentioned, but clouds or any number of things could have affected the reading. Regardless, that's what the sensor measured - you can see I'm not making it up. 

post-11601-0-40864200-1411660961_thumb.p

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It was likely flagged for what you mentioned, but clouds or any number of things could have affected the reading. Regardless, that's what the sensor measured - you can see I'm not making it up. 

 

 

I don't think you are making stuff up but even an amateur weather enthusiast would know the temp isn't going to fluctuate that much in such a short period of time in mid October with no rain.  The official reading is 81, the NCDC doesn't buy the 90 reading and neither do I.

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What does QC1 mean next to that reading?  Also do you believe the temperature went from 80 at 3:00PM to 90 at 4:00PM and then back down to 79 at 5:00PM?  Something is wrong with that reading and I have a feeling QC1 will tell us what that was.

That is impossible for temps to go from 80 to 90 to 79 in a span of 2 hours in Mid October.

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I don't think you are making stuff up but even an amateur weather enthusiast would know the temp isn't going to fluctuate that much in such a short period of time in mid October with no rain.  The official reading is 81, the NCDC doesn't buy the 90 reading and neither do I.

I checked wunderground and it shows that Atlanta was at 90 degrees at 5pm, not 4pm. Which would make it seem even more unlikely. 5pm is way past peak heating in Mid October. Also, the skies were clear that day. It was obviously an error.

 

I checked Birmingham's weather that day and their high was 83 at 3pm. Jacksonville, FL's high was 82 that day.

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While we're in a boring pattern, we can at least track the progress of the NH snow cover. As others have stated this is very important to the establishment of a favorable (future) winter pattern. Currently snow cover looks about like it did last year at this time:

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

(and)The 6z GFS does show a good snow build up over Canada during the next two weeks:

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=09&model_dd=25&model_init_hh=06&fhour=288&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

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While we're in a boring pattern, we can at least track the progress of the NH snow cover. As others have stated this is very important to the establishment of a favorable (future) winter pattern. Currently snow cover looks about like it did last year at this time:

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

(and)The 6z GFS does show a good snow build up over Canada during the next two weeks:

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=09&model_dd=25&model_init_hh=06&fhour=288&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

The correlation I believe is tied to Eurasian snow cover in particular.

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Wrong and wrong. 10/12/1979 - 90F.

 

 

The high reported at KATL was 90F. The poster GaWx didn't say the official high reported at the COOP station, which is what you're referring too. If he meant the official high, he should have said it.

 

And I got my data from the State Climate Office of NC. The temperature reached 90F at KATL at 16:00 on 10/12/1979.

 

 

I'm all for respectful disagreement and discussion, but you didn't really begin with either of those things.  Having some of your first posts come across so confrontational won't do much to win over the crowd to your point of view, either here on this weather board or many places outside of cyberspace.  I think you realized that yourself, as your later posts toned it down a notch and actually showed some reasoning.

 

So, welcome to the board, FreezeWarning1.

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I'm all for respectful disagreement and discussion, but you didn't really begin with either of those things.  Having some of your first posts come across so confrontational won't do much to win over the crowd to your point of view, either here on this weather board or many places outside of cyberspace.  I think you realized that yourself, as your later posts toned it down a notch and actually showed some reasoning.

 

So, welcome to the board, FreezeWarning1.

 

Too late.  He's done.  IP matched 5 other members including one who was banned.

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So, is it still gonna be raining Monday and Tuesday from a low coming out of the gulf?

Yeah the models still have the upper low develop and slowly move east. The GFS kinda trended closer to the Gulf Coast on its QPF but Euro still has a really good synoptic look so I still think this could be significant . I also think it will be more of a cold season type rain event as another wedge will be in place over the Carolinas at the time

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