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The Official 2014 Fall Discussion Thread


jburns

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Happy Fall!

We shall watch for:

1) Incoming weak central/west-based El Niño

2) Maintenance of the GOA warm pool

3) Warm NE Atlantic, around Greenland

4) Rapid increase in Siberian snow cover toward the end of October

5) Low sunspot activity

6) Lots of winter outlooks predicting colder, snowier conditions in the SE

What else?

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Happy Fall!

We shall watch for:

1) Incoming weak central/west-based El Niño

2) Maintenance of the GOA warm pool

3) Warm NE Atlantic, around Greenland

4) Rapid increase in Siberian snow cover toward the end of October

5) Low sunspot activity

6) Lots of winter outlooks predicting colder, snowier conditions in the SE

What else?

K-Mart will get arrested.

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Happy Fall!

We shall watch for:

1) Incoming weak central/west-based El Niño

2) Maintenance of the GOA warm pool

3) Warm NE Atlantic, around Greenland

4) Rapid increase in Siberian snow cover toward the end of October

5) Low sunspot activity

6) Lots of winter outlooks predicting colder, snowier conditions in the SE

What else?

Increasing posts from Brick, lacking quality, as such: if it's gonna be cold and not snow, it may as well be 60 and sunny , so I can play bball at lunch

-I hate cold rain

-it never snows in Raleigh, etc,etc!

Those may start coming later, but just like the salmon of Capistrano, they will come! :)

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Increasing posts from Brick, lacking quality, as such: if it's gonna be cold and not snow, it may as well be 60 and sunny , so I can play bball at lunch

-I hate cold rain

-it never snows in Raleigh, etc,etc!

Those may start coming later, but just like the salmon of Capistrano, they will come! :)

And how could we forget Healing Skies, blackbirds, and the faithful reincarnation of Snow86?

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Well, we're starting off September like a lot of weeks this summer. When I got up this morning, there was a chance of showers/storms every day through Sunday. Now it's Tues/Wed/Thur and Sunday. They even stole our 20% for today! Been a while since I've said anything like this, but we haven't has any accumulating rain in 13 days!! That's pretty amazing, given the fact that we had 8.83" in August.

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12 GFS would give us a great taste of Fall around day 7. Dew points look to drop into the 40s for at least the northern portions of NC. RAH said that the euro is not as bullish. They question how far south the cold air can penetrate(as depicted on GFS). So they are not yet forecasting temps below normal.

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=09&model_dd=01&model_init_hh=12&fhour=174&parameter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

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Oh the humanity!! Save me meteofall! My ground is cracking again and I can feel the heat bubbling up from the depths of hell. It is so hot!! ( well compared to July anyway) My trees are dead from the attack of a billon worms. My grass is dead again. Even the weeds are dying. My evergreens are brown. My Bradford Pears are dropping leaves like its November. And I see no end in sight. Am I in California or Carolina???

Help me Brick!!

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Well, we're starting off September like a lot of weeks this summer. When I got up this morning, there was a chance of showers/storms every day through Sunday. Now it's Tues/Wed/Thur and Sunday. They even stole our 20% for today! Been a while since I've said anything like this, but we haven't has any accumulating rain in 13 days!! That's pretty amazing, given the fact that we had 8.83" in August.

Forecast change again --- there's a chance back again tomorrow through next Monday :D

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If the GFS is correct, a lot of people are going to cash in by this time next week. Quite a front looks to be coming but the one difference in now compared to earlier this summer, the Bermuda Ridge is going to flex it muscles just enough to make the front stall in the heart of the Southeast US.

 

Carolinas and most of Georgia look active this weekend especially.

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If the GFS is correct, a lot of people are going to cash in by this time next week. Quite a front looks to be coming but the one difference in now compared to earlier this summer, the Bermuda Ridge is going to flex it muscles just enough to make the front stall in the heart of the Southeast US.

 

Carolinas and most of Georgia look active this weekend especially.

Love the irony. Fronts make it through in July and August but stalls out in September. It really does feel like we are going backwards. By the time we get to October, it will probably be 110.

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0z GFS did back off on the push of cooler air for the weekend. Matches better with the Euro. Still, there should be at least a drop down to the lower 80s by Monday for some in N.NC.

 

Looking out further, no real strong push of cooler air in sight; but it does start to get a lot colder in Canada with even some accumulating snow in Quebec(at day 6 or so). This is the time of year where we need to be pulling for Northern Hemisphere snow cover buildup.   

 

Last night's discussion from RAH:

SUN-MON: THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SUN-SUN
NIGHT...WITH LESSENING PROBABILITIES/DRYING FROM NW TO SE...ON MON.
COOLER INVOF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

 

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