jburns Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Document the march toward winter here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Welcome fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Happy Fall! We shall watch for: 1) Incoming weak central/west-based El Niño 2) Maintenance of the GOA warm pool 3) Warm NE Atlantic, around Greenland 4) Rapid increase in Siberian snow cover toward the end of October 5) Low sunspot activity 6) Lots of winter outlooks predicting colder, snowier conditions in the SE What else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Not very fallish on this first day of meteorological fall. The NAO is neutral and is forecasted to go positive and the PNA is neutral and forecasted to go negative. The summer temps will continue for at least the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Happy Fall! We shall watch for: 1) Incoming weak central/west-based El Niño 2) Maintenance of the GOA warm pool 3) Warm NE Atlantic, around Greenland 4) Rapid increase in Siberian snow cover toward the end of October 5) Low sunspot activity 6) Lots of winter outlooks predicting colder, snowier conditions in the SE What else? K-Mart will get arrested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 K-Mart will get arrested. And then threaten to sue the pants off everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 It's not even fall yet. Waycrological fall doesn't begin till November 21st. You guys are way ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 It's not even fall yet. Waycrological fall doesn't begin till November 21st. You guys are way ahead. Central Nc doesn't seem to cool off, on average, until around Sept 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Happy Fall! We shall watch for: 1) Incoming weak central/west-based El Niño 2) Maintenance of the GOA warm pool 3) Warm NE Atlantic, around Greenland 4) Rapid increase in Siberian snow cover toward the end of October 5) Low sunspot activity 6) Lots of winter outlooks predicting colder, snowier conditions in the SE What else? Increasing posts from Brick, lacking quality, as such: if it's gonna be cold and not snow, it may as well be 60 and sunny , so I can play bball at lunch-I hate cold rain -it never snows in Raleigh, etc,etc! Those may start coming later, but just like the salmon of Capistrano, they will come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Increasing posts from Brick, lacking quality, as such: if it's gonna be cold and not snow, it may as well be 60 and sunny , so I can play bball at lunch -I hate cold rain -it never snows in Raleigh, etc,etc! Those may start coming later, but just like the salmon of Capistrano, they will come! And how could we forget Healing Skies, blackbirds, and the faithful reincarnation of Snow86? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Well, we're starting off September like a lot of weeks this summer. When I got up this morning, there was a chance of showers/storms every day through Sunday. Now it's Tues/Wed/Thur and Sunday. They even stole our 20% for today! Been a while since I've said anything like this, but we haven't has any accumulating rain in 13 days!! That's pretty amazing, given the fact that we had 8.83" in August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 US National Weather Service Raleigh NC57 seconds ago As we posted yesterday, rain has been scarce around Central NC the past week. Our ground has really dried out as a result, as seen on this image (courtesy of our friends at NASA/SPoRT) showing the 1-week change in deep soil moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 And how could we forget Healing Skies, blackbirds, and the faithful reincarnation of Snow86? Have you seen any wooly worms in Raleigh yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Have you seen any wooly worms in Raleigh yet? Not a one. How about you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 12 GFS would give us a great taste of Fall around day 7. Dew points look to drop into the 40s for at least the northern portions of NC. RAH said that the euro is not as bullish. They question how far south the cold air can penetrate(as depicted on GFS). So they are not yet forecasting temps below normal. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=09&model_dd=01&model_init_hh=12&fhour=174¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Check out that trough over the Northern Plains in the long range. That's some chilly air. Unfortunately, the south gets ridged out and the trough appears to eject NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Check out that trough over the Northern Plains in the long range. That's some chilly air. Unfortunately, the south gets ridged out and the trough appears to eject NE. Figures the SE ridge would get an early start ! It will be a thorn in our side all winter, I'm sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Oh the humanity!! Save me meteofall! My ground is cracking again and I can feel the heat bubbling up from the depths of hell. It is so hot!! ( well compared to July anyway) My trees are dead from the attack of a billon worms. My grass is dead again. Even the weeds are dying. My evergreens are brown. My Bradford Pears are dropping leaves like its November. And I see no end in sight. Am I in California or Carolina??? Help me Brick!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Looks like next weekend will be cooler and wetter! Mention of heavy rain threat possible Sat/Sun! It's either feast or famine around here it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Beautiful day!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 I will take this weather we are having right know than in November on. The pattern will shuffle when we head into October and usually September is usually pretty mundane. So enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Beautiful day!!!!! Absolutely gnatastic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Absolutely gnatastic! The horseflies were awesometastic in rockingham county today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Well, we're starting off September like a lot of weeks this summer. When I got up this morning, there was a chance of showers/storms every day through Sunday. Now it's Tues/Wed/Thur and Sunday. They even stole our 20% for today! Been a while since I've said anything like this, but we haven't has any accumulating rain in 13 days!! That's pretty amazing, given the fact that we had 8.83" in August. Forecast change again --- there's a chance back again tomorrow through next Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 The horseflies were awesometastic in rockingham county today. I haven't seen a single horsefly all summer. They're just too big, I guess. And what with not having any wings, I reckon there wasn't much chance anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 The Mosquitos were pretty craptastic today! Went outside and up to a woody area today and within a minute had 12 mosquitos on each leg, with a cloud of them swarming and waiting to attack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 If the GFS is correct, a lot of people are going to cash in by this time next week. Quite a front looks to be coming but the one difference in now compared to earlier this summer, the Bermuda Ridge is going to flex it muscles just enough to make the front stall in the heart of the Southeast US. Carolinas and most of Georgia look active this weekend especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 If the GFS is correct, a lot of people are going to cash in by this time next week. Quite a front looks to be coming but the one difference in now compared to earlier this summer, the Bermuda Ridge is going to flex it muscles just enough to make the front stall in the heart of the Southeast US. Carolinas and most of Georgia look active this weekend especially. Love the irony. Fronts make it through in July and August but stalls out in September. It really does feel like we are going backwards. By the time we get to October, it will probably be 110. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 0z GFS did back off on the push of cooler air for the weekend. Matches better with the Euro. Still, there should be at least a drop down to the lower 80s by Monday for some in N.NC. Looking out further, no real strong push of cooler air in sight; but it does start to get a lot colder in Canada with even some accumulating snow in Quebec(at day 6 or so). This is the time of year where we need to be pulling for Northern Hemisphere snow cover buildup. Last night's discussion from RAH: SUN-MON: THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE LONG TERMPERIOD WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SUN-SUNNIGHT...WITH LESSENING PROBABILITIES/DRYING FROM NW TO SE...ON MON.COOLER INVOF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THELOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 Looks like our friend the wedge will make a return on Monday and hang around a few days! I think the frequency of wedges this summer should bode well for wintry precip this winter, if we can keep them coming every week or two! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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