tnweathernut Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Partly cloudy and 63.1 in north JC right now. Beautiful day here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1002 AM CST SAT JAN 03 2015 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF LA/MS/AL... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST REGION AND TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...SYNOPSIS... WATER VAPOR LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER WEST TX...WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FAST SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE TN VALLEY. ONE SUBTLE FEATURE APPEARS TO HAVE CROSSED THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AND IS AIDING IN WEAK LIFT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD LA/MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON AND HELP TO POSE A RISK OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS. ...SERN LA/SRN MS/WRN AL... 00Z AND 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THUNDERSTORM INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEAST LA BY MID AFTERNOON. STORMS THAT FORM IN THIS PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. WEAK DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO OCCUR IN A CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHEAST LA...ACROSS SOUTHERN MS...INTO SOUTHWEST AL WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ...NRN MS/NRN AL/MIDDLE TN... FARTHER NORTH...INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE WEAK OVER NORTHERN MS/AL INTO MIDDLE TN. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH CONVECTION THAT FORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 Latest graph from SPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 All the models flopped with this system,we never got near the rain it was showing here around BNA, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 A chance of snow before 9am, then a chance for flurries before ending. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a temperature falling to around 14 by 5pm. Wind chill values as low as -2. North wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. This could break the snow dome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 Just looking at our data for Nashville.Last year the most snow we got was .51",then nothing more than a trace before that until you get to 2011 of Jan which wasn't a bad month exactly 6" that month,something has got to give sooner or later,good grief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machetemoonlight Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 today's high will be 34... midnight highs are usually fun, but this one's annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Got a few flurries in Knoxville on the drive in to work this morning. Whoo hooooo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Currently holding steady at 27. Waiting for the drop to happen. No snow this morning. Not enough moisture to over come the down-sloping in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Getting some flurries here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I'll take that back. Had a few stray flurries a minute ago as the sun came out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 We had a lit snow,just fun to watch,our winds are picking up and temps are now going downwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Needless to say it is nasty cold out today with a wind chill that cuts right through ya. Dropped two degrees in the past hour to 28. Hope my garlic survives. It did last year with the minus 4 but I'm not as mulched this go around. Edit: FWIW the RAP is trending colder than the other models for tonight by 2 or 3 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 Needless to say it is nasty cold out today with a wind chill that cuts right through ya. Dropped two degrees in the past hour to 28. Hope my garlic survives. It did last year with the minus 4 but I'm not as mulched this go around. Edit: FWIW the RAP is trending colder than the other models for tonight by 2 or 3 degrees. Just looked and its colder for Mid Tn also,soundings look like 2 or 3 degrees and that would be at 4 in the morning with a couple more possible hours of cooling yet still possible Edit:Will check back with it later on,we could hit 0 here if its right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Down to 24. Wind chill 13. Dew point 6. Dry and cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Had quite a few snow showers this afternoon. Around 1/2 inch on the ground, temp is 14 with strong north winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 71 degrees and a wind chill of 71 degrees here in Nashville. (Am stuck inside with the flu.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 About to leave the office in Erwin TN and don't know when it started, but it's snowing. Pretty nice dusting in places, sticking to roads and everything of course. Nice little surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Sitting on 6 currently. Last snow shower ended around an hour ago. Blustery, wintery afternoon. I'd missed days like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machetemoonlight Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 12.2 here at the airport... Think we go lower than the forecasted 9. I'm guessing 6 for the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machetemoonlight Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 stuck at 11 for 3 hours.. what gives? 6 seemed so possible at midnight, now it's just cold lover's ice dream at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Down to 2, think I'll manage 0 or maybe -1 by 7ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Got down to -1 this morning. If nothing else, I'm encouraged by the return of sub-zero cold the past two years. It had been a long time since we experienced it and it was generally fairly common for most of my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Sunset this evening after a low of 3 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Really nice Sunset^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machetemoonlight Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 it's not as cold as it was last night (keeping my obs light and loose). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Low last night was 23 after yesterday's high and low of 26 and 2. At least this winter had something going for it. Not much in the way of snow chances out to 192 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Sunset this evening after a low of 3 this morning. image.jpg Awesome photo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Very heavy mist and drizzle with a temp of 30 degrees. Could make for interesting travel in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Very heavy mist and drizzle with a temp of 30 degrees. Could make for interesting travel in the morning. Same here but with a temp of 34. Surrounding areas are below freezing. This will definitely catch people off guard in the morning. This could of been a good storm if the two streams would of hooked up better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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