Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,601
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

OBS


jaxjagman

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 994
  • Created
  • Last Reply

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0937
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1208 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...SRN
   KY...AND MUCH OF TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

   VALID 081708Z - 081845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ALL POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...SEVERAL BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE ONGOING AS OF 17Z
   ACROSS THE MCD AREA...MOST LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH OUTFLOW FROM
   EARLIER CONVECTION TO THE W AND AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCING
   SEWD ACROSS THE MO/IND/IL. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
   BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS KY/TN...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING
   TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. SLY TO SWLY WINDS HAVE
   BROUGHT A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS OVER THE MCD AREA...WITH SFC
   DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LATEST RAP
   MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS MLCAPE HAS INCREASED INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG
   RANGE...EVEN THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY THE 12Z
   SOUNDING FROM NASHVILLE TN ARE ONLY AROUND 6 DEG C/KM.

   CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUES...AND A
   SPEED MAXIMUM/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT MID LEVELS OVERSPREADS THE AREA
   FROM THE W. WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND
   35-45 KT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...
   INCLUDING BOWING CLUSTERS AND SOME SUPERCELLS...WILL LIKELY BE THE
   PRIMARY STORM MODES INITIALLY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD
   BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE GIVEN EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 100 M2/S2.
   HOWEVER...SFC WINDS VEERED TO SWLY MAY TEND TO LIMIT LOW-LEVEL
   SRH...AND THEREFORE THE TORNADO THREAT. REGARDLESS...WW ISSUANCE IS
   LIKELY IN THE NEXT HOUR.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0938
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1210 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WV...ERN KY...SWRN VA...WRN MD PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

   VALID 081710Z - 081915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY
   MULTICELL CLUSTERS EVOLVING E FROM WRN WV/ERN KY THIS AFTERNOON.
   INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY NECESSITATE A WW ISSUANCE BY 19Z.

   DISCUSSION...1-MIN VISIBLE IMAGERY CONFIRMS DEEPENING CONVECTION
   OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR ALONG A REMNANT SW/NE-ORIENTED OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR WRN WV INTO ERN KY. ALTHOUGH THE REGION SHOULD
   HAVE WEAKER SHEAR COMPARED TO STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FLOW TO THE N OVER
   THE NRN APPALACHIANS AND TO THE W OVER THE MID-SOUTH/TN
   VALLEY...EFFECTIVE VALUES AROUND 30 KT SHOULD SUPPORT MULTICELL
   CLUSTERS AND SHORT LINE SEGMENTS. DESPITE MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AROUND 6 DEG C/KM AT 700-500 MB IN REGIONAL 12Z
   RAOBS...CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING YIELDING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
   THROUGH THE 80S TO LOWER 90S SHOULD AID IN A PREDOMINANT RISK OF
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

   ..GRAMS/HART.. 06/08/2015

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Another good dose of rain,nothing much severe here just lightning in the distance,alot of it also especially it S of us in Franklin in Williamason Co.,seen a police officer reported 2.25" hail,din't see no hail here, just rain.Another FFW though,so the storm wasn't a total loss,plenty of needed rain again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The string of mid 90 days is getting old really quickly.

95 ish right now have to see if dobbins afb recorded anything higher in between hours.

I agree, getting old really fast. Can't seem to get a pop up storm to fire even in the elevated areas today. Even the mosquitos aren't motivated to bite here in this nasty heat. So I guess we have that going for us which is nice. Not looking forward to my water bill though lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree, getting old really fast. Can't seem to get a pop up storm to fire even in the elevated areas today. Even the mosquitos aren't motivated to bite here in this nasty heat. So I guess we have that going for us which is nice. Not looking forward to my water bill though lol.

It's scorching...

The last three days 94, 94, and today was 95.....

I'm looking forward to Sunday when the days start getting shorter.. Long long days right... I'm also looking for some rain it's starting to get a little dry.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

95, 96, 94 over the last 3 days here. Looks like TYS actually hit 97 yesterday. My current jobsite is out in the Ocoee river gorge at the very neck of Ocoee #1 lake. The combination of the vast forest around the jobsite in every direction with the lake and the steep gorge produces utterly ludicrous humidity. I'm thinking about bringing a hygrometer out there to measure it. I was about as uncomfortable outside this afternoon as I've ever been in my life. And I've wandered Miami on a 97 degree day with a 79 degree DP.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Beautiful cloud over Gatlinburg.c0650efcab3bb9bbf779d5981524d15d.jpg

Nothing firing in the eastern valley yet. Would love a shower to end this nasty hot evening. Maybe we'll cash in this weekend before it all repeats next week. Ugh...

I got l lucky today. Around 2 it was horrendous. When I left the office at 5 it was comfortable. We had an outflow boundary come through and drop the temp way down. We had very little rain but the near miss created some wonderful weather. Hopefully you can cash in later
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Can't believe that cell wasn't warned. Lots of outages being reported in Sullivan Co., Tn. and Washington Co., Va. 50-60mph winds and hail. Insane lightning show.

Are you able to get me a report or radar which showed the gusts at 60 mph. Just wanting to make sure I didn't miss on my gusts. But feel sure I am right. We are right against Bays Mtn, north side. Even news reports would be fine. I feel MRX missed on this, but maybe I am wrong. I know what 40 mph looks like. This was well above it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...