John1122 Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 After 41 yesterday morning, sitting on 45 this morning with a couple hours of drop time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 24, 2015 Author Share Posted May 24, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0746 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0604 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN MO AND SOUTHWEST IL/FAR EASTERN AR/WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 203...205... VALID 242304Z - 250100Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 203...205...CONTINUES. SUMMARY...A TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE RISK CONTINUES PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST/CENTRAL MO...FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST IL...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST AR/WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS. TORNADO WATCHES 203 AND 205 CONTINUE UNTIL 01Z AND 03Z RESPECTIVELY. DISCUSSION...AMID LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE OF SEMI-BROKEN BANDS OF STORMS INCLUDING A FEW EMBEDDED/LINE-LEADING DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND SMALL-SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST AR/NORTHERN MO/WESTERN MS AND FAR SOUTHEAST MO THROUGH THE EARLY/MID-EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MOST PREVALENT CONCERN...BUT A TORNADO RISK EXISTS PARTICULARLY WITH LINE-LEADING/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS COINCIDENT WITH ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/MOIST AIR MASS. FARTHER NORTH...SOMEWHAT MORE ISOLATED STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY/MID-EVENING HOURS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MO AND ADJACENT FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST IL. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ALREADY ADEQUATE PER REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA FOR SOME TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS/TORNADO RISK WITHIN A MODERATELY MOIST/CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL REGIME. HOWEVER...A MODESTLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER/SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INCREASE IN TANDEM WITH STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS COULD LEAD TO A SOMEWHAT INCREASED RISK FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A FEW TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST MO AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT IL/KY/NORTHWEST TN...WITH A TREND OF BACKING NEAR-SURFACE WINDS ALREADY NOTED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS FAR EASTERN MO/SOUTHERN IL. ..GUYER.. 05/24/2015 ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 37059242 38499197 40059142 38958966 37868928 36288910 35418863 33928892 34289072 35879092 36569119 37059242 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 No rain. Had an 80% chance today. Yes, I know that means coverage area. Serious, serious trouble now for the eastern Valley. Drought builds quickly if this week flops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Had several rounds of heavy rain here yesterday. Is it downsloping getting the far eastern portions? I know it's normally the driest part of the state and I'm in basically the wettest outside the Smokies, but it's amazing that it's been raining here steadily the past 10 days and none has made it there. I'm only 90 miles or so as the rain flies from Bristol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 John, I think it is a combo of downsloping and very dry air just eating into the moisture of each system. Brutal, self-perpetuating pattern. The drier it gets, the harder it is to rain. Trout streams are at mid-August levels. My hunch...we eventually settle into a summer thunderstorm pattern in July. That is based on what some of you have mentioned and upon the pattern of the past few seasons. But in the back of my mind, I must say there is a nagging concern that this lasts and bucks the Nino pattern. But just taking the current climate at face-value, Nino should win the day and the rains arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 As for winter, I will make an early guess just based upon the Nino that approaches. Rainy with normal temps. Chances for a big one...but little sustained, Arctic cold. Then again, the past decade's winters have behaved badly...meaning they don't necessarily follow climo. The AMO has my attention and is a true wild card. Case in point, I am ready for some Nino climo right now...and am not getting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 27, 2015 Author Share Posted May 27, 2015 We've had the best thunder i've heard in months,nothing severe.Some wind damage N of us in Sumner County from an earlier severe cell.Decent rain anyways so far.Tornado warn in N/MS but i don't see any rotation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 As for winter, I will make an early guess just based upon the Nino that approaches. Rainy with normal temps. Chances for a big one...but little sustained, Arctic cold. Then again, the past decade's winters have behaved badly...meaning they don't necessarily follow climo. The AMO has my attention and is a true wild card. Case in point, I am ready for some Nino climo right now...and am not getting it. PDO will be the key, if it continues to be warm, like it was this past winter, and we have an El Nino, that generally means below average temps and above average precip for the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Long duration heavy rain event appears to be setting up this afternoon. Lots and lots of convection moving very slow nearly south to north and about to come right over mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Had a little bit of rain. Barely enough to wet the grass. Most of it split up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Long duration heavy rain event appears to be setting up this afternoon. Lots and lots of convection moving very slow nearly south to north and about to come right over mby. Things didn't work out very well given the setup. Oh well on to tomorrow's chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Ribbit ribbit.... Saw this guy stuck to the screen of my front door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Ribbit ribbit.... Saw this guy stuck to the screen of my front door. You must have had a frog strangler down your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Finally!!! Thankful for window rattling thunder and heavy rain. First substantial rain since mid-April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 It's gotten very stormy in Marietta this afternoon. My wife took this shot just a few minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 31, 2015 Author Share Posted May 31, 2015 Some good rain fall so far today with thunder in the distance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted May 31, 2015 Share Posted May 31, 2015 Got split again today with all the good rain chances around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 1, 2015 Author Share Posted June 1, 2015 been a long time since we had one of theses FLOOD WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN716 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 TNC037-149-187-189-010315-/O.NEW.KOHX.FA.W.0003.150601T0016Z-150601T0315Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/RUTHERFORD TN-WILLIAMSON TN-WILSON TN-DAVIDSON TN-716 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WARNING FOR... RUTHERFORD COUNTY... WILLIAMSON COUNTY... WILSON COUNTY... DAVIDSON COUNTY... * UNTIL 1015 PM CDT... * AT 715 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING OVER THE WARNING AREA. THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLOODING. * SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE NASHVILLE, LEBANON, MOUNT JULIET, MURFREESBORO, AND FRANKLIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Lots of heavy showers today with some gentle thunder. I'll be weeding like a fiend in a few days when the rain is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Got split again today with all the good rain chances around. Aww man, sorry to hear that. Driving across the state yesterday from middle to east I went through some crazy storms, like people pulling over on the side of the road the rain was so intense. Amazingly, it didn't split west Knoxville for once and we got some nice showers. I hope you folks in the NE can get lucky on the afternoon storms this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Took a shelfie yesterday...I did not post to NWS Morristown as I had been scooped by someone who had a better shot anyway....if you look on their webpage, this picture and the one on their FB page were taken at almost the same time...the Sams Club is about 1/4 mile from my house.... I finally got some rain yesterday probably around 0.5" but definitely need more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted June 1, 2015 Share Posted June 1, 2015 Storms rolling into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted June 2, 2015 Share Posted June 2, 2015 Aww man, sorry to hear that. Driving across the state yesterday from middle to east I went through some crazy storms, like people pulling over on the side of the road the rain was so intense. Amazingly, it didn't split west Knoxville for once and we got some nice showers. I hope you folks in the NE can get lucky on the afternoon storms this week. Sadly it happened again today. Maybe a tenth of a inch at most. Pavement is already back to half dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 2, 2015 Author Share Posted June 2, 2015 It looks better for you guys the next couple of days in the east,hopefully you guys can get something.We didn't do half bad in Williamson Co for a change by the reports.Pretty sure we got 2+ " IMBY http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rtimages/ohx/hydro/latest.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted June 2, 2015 Share Posted June 2, 2015 Incredible rainbow last night in Bearden....I am sure most of Knoxville got a good view of this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 2, 2015 Share Posted June 2, 2015 Nice photos guys! Keep them coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted June 2, 2015 Share Posted June 2, 2015 Great pics! The sky looked amazing last night in Knox county. The storms were fierce coming off the plateau but weakened fairly rapidly as they moved into the valley. We did get a nice soaking rain out of it for which I'm thankful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted June 2, 2015 Share Posted June 2, 2015 Was working at the demolition landfill in Kingsport when the recent Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued Sullivan and Hawkins County in TN and Scott Co in VA. Made it back to the Engineering office just in time! Heavy rain and a lot of good lightning and thunder at the moment in the downtown Kingsport area. Radarscope shows a NNE track at the moment so it looks like it'll continue for a while longer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted June 2, 2015 Share Posted June 2, 2015 Yeah kv we finally got hit good this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted June 2, 2015 Share Posted June 2, 2015 Reb sitting down in Marval, hogging all the storms with a dang near stationary thunderstorm sitting on the area. I'm over here catching raindrops on my tongue. Caught 3 so far. At least I can see the rainbow over his way and hear the boomers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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