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FLOOD WATCH

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

1147 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>035-041>045-040100-

/O.NEW.KFFC.FF.A.0002.140903T1800Z-140904T1200Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-

CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-

CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-

NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-

SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...

ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...

LAWRENCEVILLE...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...DECATUR

1147 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA...FROM

  CARROLLTON THROUGH ATLANTA AND LAWRENCEVILLE TO DANIELSVILLE.

* THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* OVER THE PAST FOUR DAYS...PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA FROM DALTON

  THROUGH ELLIJAY TO BLAIRSVILLE RECEIVED TWO TO FIVE INCHES OF

  RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. GENERALLY ONE TO TWO INCHES

  OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE ATLANTA METRO AREA TO THE

  GAINESVILLE AREA. THIS HAS CREATED WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS

  ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

  GULF MOISTURE OVER NORTH GEORGIA WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK

  DISTURBANCE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING IN THE MOUNTAINS TO PRODUCE

  HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SCATTERED

  SLOW MOVING OR NEARLY STATIONARY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH

  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. CONSEQUENTLY...THE CONCERN

  FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WILL INCREASE THIS

  AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD

TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION

SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

11/16

 

 

 

North Georgia just got placed in a Flash Flood Watch, Conditions are similar in the Chattanooga area and places north of there as well.  It will be interesting to see if the watch is expanded northward.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Another beautiful night last night. I removed the secondary freestanding a/c unit from the window and inturn opened the bedroom window overnight for the first time this season. Low of 54 overnight, yesterday the high was 77 with mainly sunny skies and breezy conditions. At least two more days like that on tap. Perfection.

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1116 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

   VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS
   INTO THE SRN PLAINS...LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
   ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
   CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE
   STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO LINES AND LIKELY WILL PRODUCE STRONG TO
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HAIL...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES. THE
   GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EASTERN
   OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS AND THE OZARKS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL U.S. WILL UNDERGO
   FURTHER AMPLIFICATION DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THE
   PROGRESSION OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS FROM THE CANADIAN AND
   NRN U.S. ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. WITHIN THIS BROADER CYCLONIC
   AIR STREAM...A SIGNIFICANT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND SEPARATE 50 KT
   MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
   THE MID MS VALLEY...CONTRIBUTING TO A CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY STRONG
   HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA ALONG THE SYSTEM TRACK.

   AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM N-CNTRL OK
   INTO NERN KS WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY WHILE DEVELOPING INTO THE UPPER
   GREAT LAKES ALONG A COLD FRONT SURGING EWD THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
   MEANWHILE...THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
   SEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER MS VALLEY.
   AHEAD OF THE MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NWD
   THROUGH OH VALLEY INTO SRN GREAT LAKES.

   ...MIDWEST INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS TODAY THROUGH
   TONIGHT...

   NUMEROUS ELEVATED TSTMS ARE ONGOING AS OF LATE MORNING FROM ERN KS
   AND MO SWWD INTO CNTRL/ERN OK WITH THIS ACTIVITY ROOTED WITH THE
   WARM CONVEYOR AIR STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE.
   12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR INDICATE
   THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOWEST 100-MB
   MEAN-MIXING RATIOS RANGING FROM 14.5-15.5 G/KG OVER THE CNTRL LOW
   PLAINS AND OZARKS...TO AS HIGH AS 16-18+ G/KG OVER THE WRN GULF
   COAST INTO LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STEEPENING
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE WEST /REF. 12Z DDC AND AMA SOUNDINGS/
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000-2500+ J/KG IN
   AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING.

   THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...EXPECT THAT ONGOING STORMS
   WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF SEVERE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THEY PROGRESS NEWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR.
   BY AFTERNOON...THE INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH THE
   WARMING/DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT AND
   SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
   FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO CNTRL TX. A SEPARATE BAND OF
   SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY ARISE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF EARLY-DAY
   ELEVATED TSTMS ADVANCING EWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY INTO PORTIONS
   OF IL/IND.

   IN BOTH OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED REGIMES...LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING
   MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A PREDOMINANT LINEAR CONVECTIVE
   MODE...SUGGESTING THAT DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL
   WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE
   WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU SWD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX
   AND EWD TOWARD THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE THE MOST FAVORABLE
   OVERLAP OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. TORNADO
   POTENTIAL WILL ULTIMATELY BE DICTATED BY THE CONVECTIVE MODE. WHERE
   MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAN EVOLVE...THE PRESENCE OF THE VERY
   MOIST/LOW-LCL BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODESTLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
   SUGGEST A RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES.
   
   THE THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY EWD
   INTO THE TN VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE QLCS ALONG
   OR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

   ..MEAD/GRAMS.. 10/02/2014

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 519
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   545 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
     ARKANSAS
     EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
     WESTERN KENTUCKY
     NORTHERN LOUISIANA
     EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI
     NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI
     WESTERN TENNESSEE
     EXTREME NORTHEASTERN TEXAS

   * EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 545
     PM UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
     SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
       TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
     ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EL
   DORADO ARKANSAS TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF PADUCAH KENTUCKY.
   FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

 

 

 

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
     TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 521
     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
     1010 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
    
     TORNADO WATCH 521 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT FOR THE
      FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
    
     LAC025-029-041-065-083-107-031000-
     /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0521.141003T0310Z-141003T1000Z/
    
     LA
     .    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
    
     CATAHOULA            CONCORDIA           FRANKLIN           
     MADISON              RICHLAND            TENSAS             
    
    
     MSC001-003-007-009-013-015-017-019-021-025-029-037-043-049-051-
     053-055-057-063-071-079-081-083-085-087-089-093-095-097-099-103-
     105-115-117-121-123-125-127-133-135-139-141-145-149-155-159-161-
     163-031000-
     /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0521.141003T0310Z-141003T1000Z/
    
     MS
     .    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
    
     ADAMS                ALCORN              ATTALA             
     BENTON               CALHOUN             CARROLL            
     CHICKASAW            CHOCTAW             CLAIBORNE          
     CLAY                 COPIAH              FRANKLIN           
     GRENADA              HINDS               HOLMES             
     HUMPHREYS            ISSAQUENA           ITAWAMBA           
     JEFFERSON            LAFAYETTE           LEAKE              
     LEE                  LEFLORE             LINCOLN            
     LOWNDES              MADISON             MARSHALL           
     MONROE               MONTGOMERY          NESHOBA            
     NOXUBEE              OKTIBBEHA           PONTOTOC           
     PRENTISS             RANKIN              SCOTT              
     SHARKEY              SIMPSON             SUNFLOWER          
     TALLAHATCHIE         TIPPAH              TISHOMINGO         
     UNION                WARREN              WEBSTER            
     WINSTON              YALOBUSHA           YAZOO              
    
    
     TNC005-017-023-039-043-047-069-071-075-077-079-081-083-085-101-
     109-113-125-135-161-181-031000-
     /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0521.141003T0310Z-141003T1000Z/
    
     TN
     .    TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
    
     BENTON               CARROLL             CHESTER            
     DECATUR              DICKSON             FAYETTE            
     HARDEMAN             HARDIN              HAYWOOD            
     HENDERSON            HENRY               HICKMAN            
     HOUSTON              HUMPHREYS           LEWIS              
     MADISON              MCNAIRY             MONTGOMERY         
     PERRY                STEWART             WAYNE

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TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

1048 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

 

  EASTERN DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

  NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

  EASTERN TATE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

 

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

 

 

* AT 1048 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR COLDWATER...OR NEAR

  SENATOBIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

 

 

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RURAL AREAS

  OF EASTERN DESOTO...EASTERN TATE AND NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL

  COUNTIES.

 

TORNADO WARNING

 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

 

1044 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

 

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

 

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

  EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

  NORTHERN DYER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...

  SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...

  SOUTHWESTERN OBION COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...

  SOUTHERN PEMISCOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

 

 

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

 

 

* AT 1044 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR

  COOTER...OR NEAR STEELE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

 

 

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

  CARUTHERSVILLE...DENTON...STEELE...SHADE...STUBTOWN...CANADY...

  COVINGTON...COTTONWOOD POINT...TYLER AND REELFOOT LAKE STATE PARK.

 

 

 

 

 

TORNADO WARNING

 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

 

1028 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

 

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

  EAST CENTRAL CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

  NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

  SOUTHWESTERN DYER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...

  SOUTHEASTERN DUNKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

  SOUTHWESTERN PEMISCOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

  NORTH CENTRAL LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

 

 

* UNTIL 1115 PM CDT

 

 

* AT 1028 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES SOUTH OF MANILA...

  OR 7 MILES EAST OF CARAWAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

 

 

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO DENTON...

  STEELE...MONETTE...BLYTHEVILLE...GOSNELL...LEACHVILLE...LUXORA...

  MANILA...COTTON PLANT...GILBERT...TEMPLES CORNER...COVINGTON...

  TYLER AND HERMONDALE.

 

 

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR BIG LAKE.

 

 

 

 

 

 

MISSISSIPPI AR-

 

1026 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

 

 

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR WEST

CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTY...

 

 

AT 1025 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO.  THIS

TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MILLIGAN RIDGE...OR NEAR CARAWAY...MOVING

EAST AT 40 MPH.

 

 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LEACHVILLE...

CARMI...WHISP...WALTERS...VAIL...MILLIGAN RIDGE...JOLLIFF STORE...

MANDALAY AND LENNIE.

 

 

 

TORNADO WARNING

 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

 

1020 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

 

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

 

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

 

  NORTHEASTERN CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

  SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

  SOUTHWESTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

  TIPTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

 

 

* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT

 

 

* AT 1020 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

 

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR JOINER...OR 9 MILES

 

  SOUTHWEST OF WILSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

 

 

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ASHPORT...

 

  FT PILLOW...FULTON...COVINGTON...BASSETT...JOINER...LUXORA...

 

  MARIE...OSCEOLA...WILSON AND FORT PILLOW STATE PARK.

 

 

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR SUNK LAKE AND THE CHUTE.

 

 

 

 

TORNADO WARNING

 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

 

1016 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

 

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

 

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

 

  SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

 

  SOUTHWESTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

 

  NORTH CENTRAL TIPTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

 

 

* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT

 

 

* AT 1016 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

 

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR DYESS...OR 7 MILES

 

  SOUTHEAST OF LEPANTO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

 

 

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO KEISER...

 

  LUXORA...OSCEOLA...WILSON AND FORT PILLOW STATE PARK.

 

 

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR SUNK LAKE.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1808
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1150 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN LA/WRN...CENTRAL AND NRN MS...NWRN AL...WRN
   AND MIDDLE TN...AND WRN KY

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 519...521...

   VALID 030450Z - 030645Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 519...521...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...SOME SIGNIFICANT GUSTS...A
   COUPLE OF TORNADOES PERSISTS ACROSS WW 521 AND THE NRN PART OF WW
   519.  AS STORMS EXIT THE NRN PART OF WW 521 BETWEEN 06-07Z...A MORE
   STABLE ENVIRONMENT INTO MIDDLE TN AND NRN AL SHOULD LIMIT THE EWD
   EXTENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  HOWEVER...TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A NEW WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS PRESENT ACROSS THE LOWER
   MS VALLEY TO THE LOWER TN VALLEY...WHILE INSTABILITY REMAINED THE
   GREATEST WITH SWD EXTENT INTO CENTRAL/SRN MS AND LA.  ALTHOUGH
   INSTABILITY IS WEAKER ACROSS NRN MS...WRN TN AND WRN KY...STRONGER
   FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO COMPENSATE FOR THIS LIMITING
   THERMODYNAMIC FACTOR THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z.  AND...STRONG 0-1 KM SRH
   /300-400 M2 PER S2/ PER GWX AND HPX VADS WITHIN A MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY FROM
   NRN MS TO WRN KY.

   THE PORTION OF THE QLCS MOVING INTO CENTRAL/SRN MS WAS TRACKING
   ESEWD AT 30-35 KT.  GIVEN STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS
   REGION...A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR AN EMBEDDED QLCS TORNADO
   THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF WW 521.

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Nice day here,some good wind gust at times probably about 20-30 mph.Don't think we'll hit 62,predicted high.Got this off of Nashville's disco this morn

 

 

CLIMATE...RECORD LOW FOR SUNDAY MORNING OCTOBER 5TH IN NASHVILLE IS
32 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1968. THE AVERAGE DATE OF THE FIRST 32
DEGREES IN THE FALL IS OCTOBER 28TH. LAST YEAR (2013) THE FIRST 32
DEGREE READING IN THE FALL CAME ON OCTOBER 25TH. THE EARLIEST WE
HAVE EVER HAD A 32 DEGREE TEMPERATURE IN THE FALL WAS BACK ON
OCTOBER 2ND 1984.

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1146 AM CDT SUN OCT 05 2014

   VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINE

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF NORTH
   CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY AREAS. ISOLATED HAIL COULD
   ACCOMPANY A FEW OF THE STORMS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST
   OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

   ...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO MID/LOWER MS VALLEY...
   A LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
   TODAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS.  WATER VAPOR
   LOOPS SHOW MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
   THE PLAINS.  ONE OF THESE FEATURES OVER WY/CO WILL ROTATE INTO
   OK/TX/AR LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT.  MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE INCONSISTENT ON EXTENT OF
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT IT APPEARS AT LEAST A STORM OR TWO WILL
   FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AN AXIS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO CENTRAL
   AR.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IN THOSE
   STORMS THAT FORM.

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