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September Obs.


mackerel_sky

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Just about 1" for today now, and heavier showers just kicked in.

 

 

Don't often hear about a deformation band this time of year.

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0355 (Issued at 223 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2014 )   MPD Selection        
 

mcd0355.gif
 MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0355NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD223 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2014 AREAS AFFECTED......SE VIRGINIA/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...  CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY  VALID 081823Z - 082323Z SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEASTVIRGINIA IN VICINITY OF A COASTAL BOUNDARY OR SURFACE TROUGH ANDMAY ALSO OCCUR WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE LIFTING NORTHWARD WITHTHE LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINADISCUSSION...EXTREME RAIN RATES OF 2 TO AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES PERHOUR CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON A MICRO-SCALE IN VICINITY OF COASTALBOUNDARY OR SURFACE TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA NEAR THE NORTHCAROLINA BORDER WHERE MAINLY WARM RAIN PROCESSES ARE OCCURRING. ON A MESOSCALE/SYNOPTIC-SCALE...THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHCAROLINA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULDALLOW FOR A DEFORMATION ZONE TO PIVOT NORTHWARD WITH THE LOWAFFECTING MOST OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.  HI-RES GUIDANCEINCLUDING THE HRRR SHOW THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIAREMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OR POSSIBLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD...WITHSIMILAR RAIN RATES LIKELY CONTINUING ACROSS A VERY SMALL AREA. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF RAINFALL ALONG WITH ALREADY REDUCED FFGVALUES...THESE RATES WILL LIKELY EXCEED GUIDANCE RESULTING INFLASH FLOODING.
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337 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...

JOHNSTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

NASH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

WAKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

WARREN COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

FRANKLIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

EASTERN HARNETT COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 630 PM EDT

* AT 333 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS AREAS OF SLOW

MOVING HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THIS RAIN IS OCCURRING OVER ALREADY

SATURATED GROUND AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM

FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE

ALREADY FALLEN IN SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND

AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 630 PM.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE

RALEIGH...CARY...SMITHFIELD...NASHVILLE...LOUISBURG...LILLINGTON...

WARRENTON...WAKE FOREST...GARNER AND FUQUAY-VARINA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN

URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER

POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS...SMALL CREEKS AND

STREAMS...AS WELL AS FARM AND COUNTRY ROADS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO

TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN

THEY APPEAR. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART

CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES.

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Looks like the axis of heavy rain is setting up Over the eastern half of Wake Co. I would not be surprise to see some flood advisories soon.

 

And there it is:

 

FLOOD ADVISORY

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

337 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

NCC069-085-101-127-183-185-082230-

/O.NEW.KRAH.FA.Y.0114.140908T1937Z-140908T2230Z/

/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

JOHNSTON NC-NASH NC-WAKE NC-WARREN NC-FRANKLIN NC-HARNETT NC-

337 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...

  JOHNSTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

  NASH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

  WAKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

  WARREN COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

  FRANKLIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

  EASTERN HARNETT COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 630 PM EDT

* AT 333 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS AREAS OF SLOW

  MOVING HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THIS RAIN IS OCCURRING OVER ALREADY

  SATURATED GROUND AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM

  FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE

  ALREADY FALLEN IN SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND

  AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 630 PM.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE

  RALEIGH...CARY...SMITHFIELD...NASHVILLE...LOUISBURG...LILLINGTON...

  WARRENTON...WAKE FOREST...GARNER AND FUQUAY-VARINA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN

URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER

POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS...SMALL CREEKS AND

STREAMS...AS WELL AS FARM AND COUNTRY ROADS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO

TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN

THEY APPEAR. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART

CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES.

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* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...

JOHNSTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

WESTERN WILSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

EASTERN WAKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

WAYNE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 1030 PM EDT

* AT 436 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH

HEAVY RAIN FALLING OVER SATURATED GROUND. THE SHOWERS WITH THE

HEAVIEST RAIN EXTENDED FROM BENSON TO GARNER EASTWARD TO WILSON

AND GOLDSBORO. THE AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE

NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... CLAYTON...

ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LITTLE CREEK AREA ALONG HIGHWAY 42... AND

ALONG OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS IN TOWN. OTHER LOCATIONS THAT MAY

SEE FLOODING INCLUDE... BENSON... GARNER... KNIGHTDALE...

SMITHFIELD... SELMA... GOLDSBORO... AND THE CITY OF WILSON.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES MAY FALL IN AREAS THAT

HAVE RECEIVED 2 TO LOCALLY 5 INCHES THUS FAR.

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Well, I thought it had let up, but it's still pouring. Over 1"/hr rates. Ditches are full and the water is overflowing into the streets. All of the yards have standing water.

Radar in motion 'appears' to show you're getting wrap-around rain now. We're still on the inflow side of the low, I guess. crazy system. Wouldn't this have been fun in the winter?

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Yay, us!

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AS OF 723 PM MONDAY......FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FROM CLINTON TO RALEIGH TO WARRENTON... EASTWARD...RADAR INDICATED A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST JOHNSTON COUNTY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE NNE. SEVERAL BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE BEEN CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW CENTER... MAINLY ON THE EAST AND NORTH SIDE WHERE THE BEST ATLANTIC INFLOW CONTINUED. THIS INFLOW WAS BEING LIFTED UP AND OVER THE COASTAL FRONT LOCATED FROM RALEIGH TO ROANOKE RAPIDS. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 0.5 TO 0.75 IN THE BANDS OVER SAMPSON... WAYNE... JOHNSTON... EASTERN WAKE... AND NOW INTO NASH... FRANKLIN AND HALIFAX COUNTIES. THIS WAS FALLING OVER AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED LOCALLY 6+ INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE LARGER THAN WHAT IS TRULY NEEDED. HOWEVER... THE STATEMENTS WILL TRY TO HONE IN ON AREAS THAT BECOME PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS ON A MORE LOCALIZED BASIS. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD LINGER FOR AT LEAST 3-6 MORE HOURS... LONGER NE ZONES... GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CIRCULATION ON RADAR AND THE INFLUX OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE WARM FRONT FROM RDU TO RWI TO ROANOKE RAPIDS. 
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Cold Rain - still moderate rain over here as well. Another .43" since 6:00. Puts us over 3" since this morning. Makes me glad we missed out on those big storms y'all just to the West and East got yesterday.

Yeah, I haven't seen this much water around here since the Big Wet of last summer. We're in the jackpot zone on this one. The max bullseye on the Doppler estimate is literally right over my area. Over 6" now for sure.

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mcd0357.gif

 MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0357NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD732 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN VA/EASTERN NC/FAR NORTHEASTERN SC...  CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE  VALID 082332Z - 090402Z SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN FALLING IN AN OVERRUNNINGFASHION ACROSS MUCH OF NC AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN VA. SOME OF THEMORE ENHANCED CONVECTION HAS NOW FOCUSED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO AMESOSCALE LOW WHICH IS SLOWLY TRACKING TOWARD THE NORTH AND EAST.EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z. DISCUSSION...THE BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOWED A FAIRLY SHARPMOISTURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WITH PWATSIN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES FROM SOUTHEASTERN VA DOWN ALONG COASTALSECTIONS OF NC/SC. THIS HAS BEEN THE LOCATION OF A WELL DEFINEDBAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH IS NEARLY STATIONARY IN NATURE. MUCH OF THEONGOING HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN SEEN NORTH AND WEST OF THISBOUNDARY WHERE OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN COMMONPLACEACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC. MOST RECENTLY SOME OF THE ACTIVITY HASBECOME ENHANCED BY A MESOSCALE LOW WHICH IS DRIFTINGNORTHEASTWARD. EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR IN THEVICINITY OF THIS LOW. SLOW CELL MOTIONS AND A VERY MOISTTROPOSPHERE WILL HELP CONTRIBUTE TO THE CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVYRAINFALL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS A PRETTY STRONG SIGNALIN THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS THAT HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULDPERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL ALLOW THIS MPD TO CONTINUEUNTIL 04Z WITH THE THREAT BEING REEVALUATED AS NEWER GUIDANCEARRIVES.RUBIN-OSTER
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Cold Rain.... this anywhere around you? From the RAH Facebook page...

 

Rain totals so far south of Garner (near McCullers) is 9.1 inches. We dumped 3.5 inches out of the gauge this morning after last night's storm and another 5.6 when I returned home from work this evening. This is some system!
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Cold Rain.... this anywhere around you? From the RAH Facebook page...

 

Rain totals so far south of Garner (near McCullers) is 9.1 inches. We dumped 3.5 inches out of the gauge this morning after last night's storm and another 5.6 when I returned home from work this evening. This is some system!

Yup...just a couple miles away. Rainfall looks to be dissipating in my area now.

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858 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM EDT FOR

JOHNSTON...WESTERN WILSON...EASTERN WAKE AND WAYNE COUNTIES...

AT 851 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVY RAIN

EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SAMPSON COUNTY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN

JOHNSTON INTO SOUTHERN WAKE COUNTY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WAS FALLING

FROM COATS CROSSROADS AND FOUR OAKS TO CLAYTON AND FUQUAY-VARINA. TO

THE NORTH AND WEST ACROSS MUCH OF RALEIGH AND CARY... ONLY MINOR

FLOODING WAS REPORTED. HOWEVER... FLOODING AT NIGHT IS TOO DIFFICULT

TO DETERMINE.

RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR WERE DETECTED WITH

THIS BAND BY DOPPLER RADAR. THIS HEAVY RAIN WAS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE

NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH AND WILL FALL ON SATURATED GROUND. RADAR

INDICATED THAT 6 TO 8 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL RAINFALL HAD ALREADY

FALLEN IN NORTHWEST JOHNSTON COUNTY NEAR CLAYTON. ANY ADDITIONAL

RAINFALL WILL RUNOFF RAPIDLY.

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It's radar-estimated, but I found 6.64" in Cleveland area (halfway between Clayton and Benson) and 7.52" in Princeton area of Johnston County. Hate that I'm missing out on this event because I don't think JoCo have gotten this much rain since I moved in 5 years ago.

 

Just to clarify that 6.64" measurement was in middle of dark red mass, not a pink pixel. 

 

tgeiF27.png

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