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September Obs.


mackerel_sky

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Clouds must be pretty thick here.  Had a low of 56.9º and currently, at 11am, it's only 57.5º.  

 

 

Same over here. 57 at 11 am. Actually fallen 1/2 a degree in the past hour as the clouds thicken.  If we stay under 60 that might break a record low high.  Need to check that.

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Light rain now falling in Hickory.  I was hoping the GSP forecast would come to fruition, but alas, it's not to be.  From a few days ago, they have steadily moved their low 70s and mostly sunny toward upper 60s and mostly cloudy.  But, they've missed the rain altogether today.  It's a tough job, so I'm not claiming I would have been any more accurate.  In fact, I'm sure I wouldn't.  Here's my latest point-and-click:

 

 

j6PZF9L.png

 

 

 

On the other hand, Robert has been all over this (as has Marion).  Here's his Facebook post from last night, where he highlights his quite different opinion of the upcoming weather:

 

 

 

cD2Ws49.png

 

 

 

And, just over an hour ago, Robert posted this nugget on Facebook:

 

 

 


 

Another system develops in Mississippi over the weekend. Looks like a pretty cloudy period in the Carolinas where some spots may make a run at a week straight with cloud cover by next Monday.

 

 

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Wonder if the 20% for RDU will be raised?  The radar puts a check in the Yes box.

 

Yeah we gots lots of slight chance rain falling outside right now.....as does most fo the CWA for MHX.

 

check the radar loop outta MHX look about 50 miles SE of Cape Lookout nice spin going

 

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MHX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

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Yeah we gots lots of slight chance rain falling outside right now.....as does most fo the CWA for MHX.

 

check the radar loop outta MHX look about 50 miles SE of Cape Lookout nice spin going

 

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MHX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

 

That's pretty cool.  The rain inland toward my area keeps diminishing before making it in.  It's just a matter of time, though.

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I like it when RAH talks about the uncertainties. Quite a complex system developing...

THERE STILL REMAINS SOME CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS SURROUNDING THIS SYSTEM. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY WRT TO QPF AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION OVER THE GFS AND NAM...AND THUS WILL BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE NC COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SHARP EAST-WEST GRADIENT IN QPF...THOUGH HOW FAR INLAND THAT GRADIENT WILL SETUP IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW WILL HAVE QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE TRIANGLE...TO ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THE TRIAD. OF NOTE...IF THE HI-RES CAM MODELS VERIFY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD EASILY BE CUT IN HALF. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE FROM SW-NE WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS THE COAST LOW LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES: SIMILAR TO TODAY...EXPECT LITTLE DIURNAL VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. LOWS IN THE 57 TO 61. 
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Temps have really dropped throughout the day. Currently it is 63 with a dew point of 61 and with the breeze, it feels even cooler. Light rain and so far we have had .11".

 

Same here wrt temps dropping.  Had a midnight high of 62.8 but has been in the 50's all day with some light rain.

 

tMlURBV.png

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