Stormlover74 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 did your ouiji board or crystal 8 ball advise you on that ? LMAO How often do we have snow threats to track in mid November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 How often do we have snow threats to track in mid November? thats what makes following the weather so interesting is not knowing when - did anyone on this date 2 years ago expect a record breaking hurricane to strike the region at the very end of October and 2 weeks later a snowstorm ? Never discount any possibliity by making blanket statements - will eventually come back to bite you ........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 thats what makes following the weather so interesting is not knowing when - did anyone on this date 2 years ago expect a record breaking hurricane to strike the region at the very end of October and 2 weeks later a snowstorm ? Never discount any possibliity by making blanket statements - will eventually come back to bite you ........ There was no blanket statement. One said tracking snow in a month the other said 2 months...much more likely that we aren't tracking snow threats til at least December like most years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 did your ouiji board or crystal 8 ball advise you on that ? LMAO No, climatology did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 IMO - since there has been under 5 inches of snow total in NYC in October in 145 years of record keeping you can't just make a blanket statement like that .......I am sure in previous years before 1868 there were quite a few octobers with snowfall and the following winter was above average - it happened in 1876 and 1925 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html both years had a blizzard...two in one week in Feb. 1926...2002 had two consecutive nights with sleet accumulating in some spots at the end of October...1952, 1962, 1972 and 1979 had slushy accumulations in spots and the winter that followed had below normal snowfall...2011 was a historic October event...We might not see that again for 100 years...The early November 2012 snowstorm will probably not be equaled in many years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 No, climatology did. It's always the best tool to use 9 out of 10 times as a guide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 No, climatology did. so you are guaranteeing for the record that there will be no snow threats before December 15th this year ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 There was no blanket statement. One said tracking snow in a month the other said 2 months...much more likely that we aren't tracking snow threats til at least December like most years. so you are guaranteeing for the record that we will not be tracking ANY snow threats till at least December 1st this year ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 so you are guaranteeing for the record that we will not be tracking ANY snow threats till at least December 1st this year ? LOL who the hell said that? Are you saying we have equal chances of tracking a snowstorm on 11/15 as 12/15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 so you are guaranteeing for the record that we will not be tracking ANY snow threats till at least December 1st this year ? When did he guarantee anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Good lord did anyone notice i said "albeit small for coastal locals"? This statement was made for away from the coast with chances of snow showers or little back end snow that middle of november from a storm. We all know december 1st we start seeing real snow threats for even coastal regions. We have seen numerous times in november and even late october appreciable snows for well inland NJ, PA and the hudson valley north. Its POSSIBLE we'll be tracking snowstorms i didnt guarantee anything. Well except for Snow88 posting the 384 GFS daily at that time, that is almost a layup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Good lord did anyone notice i said "albeit small for coastal locals"? This statement was made for away from the coast with chances of snow showers or little back end snow that middle of november from a storm. We all know december 1st we start seeing real snow threats for even coastal regions. We have seen numerous times in november and even late october appreciable snows for well inland NJ, PA and the hudson valley north. Its POSSIBLE we'll be tracking snowstorms i didnt guarantee anything. Well except for Snow88 posting the 384 GFS daily at that time, that is almost a layup No he meant were Sundog and I guaranteeing that we wouldn't see snow in November because its unlikely. Neither of us thought you were guaranteeing snow in November either just that its much more likely we won't be tracking for at least 6 more weeks or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 No he meant were Sundog and I guaranteeing that we wouldn't see snow in November because its unlikely. Neither of us thought you were guaranteeing snow in November either just that its much more likely we won't be tracking for at least 6 more weeks or so.Agreed. Like i said though possibilities for a measureable snow event well N&W of NYC becomes much more likely by mid-late november where we near the coast tend to wait as you said beginning of december Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 I would say 2 months away. We're in agreement...and that scares me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Significant to major snowfall events have certainly occurred prior to December 10th, but by and large, even in our better years, "real" winter doesn't get going until after the 10th. December 10th - March 10th is my definition of the 3 month period in which snow is most likely to fall, toward the middle of the meteorological and astronomical winter start and finish dates. Any meaningful accumulation both before Dec 10th and after March 10th I consider to be a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Significant to major snowfall events have certainly occurred prior to December 10th, but by and large, even in our better years, "real" winter doesn't get going until after the 10th. December 10th - March 10th is my definition of the 3 month period in which snow is most likely to fall, toward the middle of the meteorological and astronomical winter start and finish dates. Any meaningful accumulation both before Dec 10th and after March 10th I consider to be a bonus. So just to be clear you're guaranteeing no snow prior to December 10th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 So just to be clear you're guaranteeing no snow prior to December 10th? Yep, if we see snow before then you can slash my tires, egg my mailbox, and paintball my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Nice coastal on the Euro for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 15, 2014 Author Share Posted October 15, 2014 Nice coastal on the Euro for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 I'm. shocked that you didn't post it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 15, 2014 Author Share Posted October 15, 2014 I'm. shocked that you didn't post it It does have some ensemble support but the majority are too far offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Hey does anyone know how I can post a picture on here? I'm using an iPhone through gmail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Hey does anyone know how I can post a picture on here? I'm using an iPhone through gmail? Use Tapatalk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Use Tapatalk.Thank u Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 FWIW, I dont think we see any snow before October is out. However, I think its been thrown around in the NE thread a few times that Nino winters can feature an early snow event or events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 FWIW, I dont think we see any snow before October is out. However, I think its been thrown around in the NE thread a few times that Nino winters can feature an early snow event or eventsLooks like mid to late November is a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 I just went back and read the old thread, I must admit I got chills just reading it. I'm amazed at how people have been banned since then..Alex..analog etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 17, 2014 Author Share Posted October 17, 2014 I'm amazed at how people have been banned since then..Alex..analog etc. I noticed that as well. It's really not that hard to get banned here. You get one mod with a quick trigger finger and you can easily rake up points quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 17, 2014 Share Posted October 17, 2014 I noticed that as well. It's really not that hard to get banned here. You get one mod with a quick trigger finger and you can easily rake up points quickly.I remember i got temp banned by that guy am19psu when he was here. I know i wasnt the smartest but i certainly wasnt trolling or rustling jimmies to deserve that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 17, 2014 Author Share Posted October 17, 2014 I remember i got temp banned by that guy am19psu when he was here. I know i wasnt the smartest but i certainly wasnt trolling or rustling jimmies to deserve that His moderating style was very strict, which had both positives and negatives. For one, he would never allow the type of banter that plauges many of the storm threads around here these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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