Guest Pamela Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Pamela, who is widely believed to study thesauri in her spare time... I'm glad to see you're a believer...just like The Monkees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 No I disagree most vehemently...time is not a series of highways lanes...and by changing lanes you consequently can alter futures...fate & destiny are unchangeable...and the most strenuous efforts and hopes cannot alter the fact that this will be a below average snow season in NYC. I'm not a follower of long range weather predictions but just the other day NYC had a chance of several inches of heavy wet snow. The potential popped up about five days out. As we all know it did not happen but it was close. Here is the first line from the Climate Prediction Center issued earlier. So we all don't really know whats truly in the cards until we start sniffing out some reality in the 5-7 day outlook range. PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 830AM EST THURSDAY NOV 20 2014 30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR DECEMBER 2014 THE OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER 2014 IS DECIDEDLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT... PS: good luck though on your below average snow season for NYC. which of course most here hope you are wrong about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 I'm not a follower of long range weather predictions but just the other day NYC had a chance of several inches of heavy wet snow. The potential popped up about five days out. As we all know it did not happen but it was close. Here is the first line from the Climate Prediction Center issued earlier. So we all don't really know whats truly in the cards until we start sniffing out some reality in the 5-7 day outlook range. PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 830AM EST THURSDAY NOV 20 2014 30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR DECEMBER 2014 THE OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER 2014 IS DECIDEDLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT... PS: good luck though on your below average snow season for NYC. which of course most here hope you are wrong about. Thank you for the good wishes. The thing about it is, that you can have all the ingredients...abundant moisture & ample cold air...but *unless* those elements coalesce & converge in proper synchronization...futility will reign. Its almost like the NHL playoffs...you can be the best team all year long...but get eliminated by a sub mediocre team in the 1st round. The point being, day to day excellence is meaningless. One must succeed only when it counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Thank you for the good wishes. The thing about it is, that you can have all the ingredients...abundant moisture & ample cold air...but *unless* those elements coalesce & converge in proper synchronization...futility will reign. Its almost like the NHL playoffs...you can be the best team all year long...but get eliminated by a sub mediocre team in the 1st round. The point being, day to day excellence is meaningless. One must succeed only when it counts. I also think everyone should google the term - "weather forecasting an inexact science " - what also could be considered fraud is some of these weather forecasters who charge a fee to their " clients" tricking them into believing they have some super natural powers and they can make weather an exact science - I am going to be doing an analysis this winter of one such individual who we all know and ??? who chose to break down his winter forecast into 15 day periods - the results and analysis should be quite interesting....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 I also think everyone should google the term - "weather an inexact science " - what also could be considered fraud is some of these weather forecasters who charge a fee to their " clients" tricking them into believing they have some super natural powers and they can make weather an exact science - I am going to be doing an analysis this winter of one such individual who we all know and ??? who chose to break down his winter forecast into 15 day periods - the results and analysis should be quite interesting....... Absolutely true. Even with the best human minds, the most experienced forecasters in pattern recognition, super computers, advancement in models weather forecasting is an inexact science. Certainly improvements have been made over the years but it won't become an exact science unless some one travels into time and brings back the results to make their forecast. And that would be cheating! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 I also think everyone should google the term - "weather an inexact science " - what also could be considered fraud is some of these weather forecasters who charge a fee to their " clients" tricking them into believing they have some super natural powers and they can make weather an exact science - I am going to be doing an analysis this winter of one such individual who we all know and ??? who chose to break down his winter forecast into 15 day periods - the results and analysis should be quite interesting....... In fairness, I will throw this is...something I mentioned before. The degree of difficulty in long range snowfall forecasts vary from place to place. For example, in the Sierra Nevada mountains, where wintertime temperature is essentially a non factor in determining precipitation type, if one can see that it is going to be a wet winter, then above average snowfall is basically a sure thing. The same can be said for the northern Great Plains, northern New England...and most other places where similar dimensions apply. But for NYC and most of the other Atlantic Coastal plain towns, the combination of cold and wet...at the right time...is absolutely elemental in producing a snowy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Light virga approaching the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 In fairness, I will throw this is...something I mentioned before. The degree of difficulty in long range snowfall forecasts vary from place to place. For example, in the Sierra Nevada mountains, where wintertime temperature is essentially a non factor in determining precipitation type, if one can see that it is going to be a wet winter, then above average snowfall is basically a sure thing. The same can be said for the northern Great Plains, northern New England...and most other places where similar dimensions apply. But for NYC and most of the other Atlantic Coastal plain towns, the combination of cold and wet...at the right time...is absolutely elemental in producing a snowy winter. Prime example of why this is an inexact science would be that it would be impossible to predict this accurately --- even during the same season - wide variations year to year month to month http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Light virga approaching the area? some of the darker echoes may result in flurries i'll let you know they are approaching my location unless they dry out first http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=JFK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Weather IS an exact science. Our ability to model it and to a much lesser extent our understanding of it is what is inexact. Perhaps that seems a semantic argument but it is an important difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 seasonal snowfall predictions is guessing at best...but if you think there will be enough chances for noreasters you should go with above average predictions...so far the pattern this fall has produced many coastals...1982 had a noreaster in late October...In February 83 we got a similar with cold air to work with...that storm helped keep that winter from being a total failure...I think we will get our share of chances this year...I also think there will be enough cold air with some of them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Weather IS an exact science. Our ability to model it and to a much lesser extent our understanding of it is what is inexact. Perhaps that seems a semantic argument but it is an important difference. Right: as an extension of physics, meteorology is an exact, quantifiable science. Even weather forecasting is arguably an exact science, since every hypothesis can be (and is) tested. We often say "meteorology is an inexact science" when we mean "the practical applications of meteorology are not infallible." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Weather IS an exact science. Our ability to model it and to a much lesser extent our understanding of it is what is inexact. Perhaps that seems a semantic argument but it is an important difference. you are correct - I changed my original post to "weather forecasting an inexact science" - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Flurrying at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Typo? You are correct - I changed my original post to "weather forecasting and inexact science" - Weather forecasting "an" inexact science.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Weather IS an exact science. Our ability to model it and to a much lesser extent our understanding of it is what is inexact. Perhaps that seems a semantic argument but it is an important difference. Obviously the nature of the atmosphere...sometimes known simply as atmospheric physics...is simulated with verifiable & reliable numerical modeling...using things such as "equations of state". Two things make absolute precision forecasting difficult: First, the wx conditions in every square parcel of land, sea, and air around the globe cannot be fully and accurately gauged...second, there are still some secrets regarding what causes certain weather phenomena that science has yet to unmask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Flurrying at the moment echo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 I'm rather pleased to see that the first half of December looks like it will be rather mild. This should afford me a bit of relief with regards to home heating oil costs...oftentimes, the company sends me a bill in the $800 range every four weeks or so... *Smiles happily* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 I'm rather pleased to see that the first half of December looks like it will be rather mild. This should afford me a bit of relief with regards to home heating oil costs...oftentimes, the company sends me a bill in the $800 range every four weeks or so... *Smiles happily* My oil bill use to be similiar to yours. SMh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 I'm rather pleased to see that the first half of December looks like it will be rather mild. This should afford me a bit of relief with regards to home heating oil costs...oftentimes, the company sends me a bill in the $800 range every four weeks or so... *Smiles happily* ? how old is your furnace ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 ? how old is your furnace ? About 20 years, I suppose...same as the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Typo? You are correct - I changed my original post to "weather forecasting and inexact science" - Weather forecasting "an" inexact science.. Typo? You are correct - I changed my original post to "weather forecasting and inexact science" - Weather forecasting "an" inexact science.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 About 20 years, I suppose...same as the house. wow - I just installed a high efficiency natural gas furnace last year and my bill during the coldest month last winter was $ 177 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 wow - I just installed a high efficiency natural gas furnace last year and my bill during the coldest month last winter was $ 177 Its very difficult to survive as a homeowner today...this is a county that features very high property taxes relative to the national mean and even though I have no mortgage to pay it is a struggle. People at work ask me my goals...I tell them, "I'm just trying to get to tomorrow." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Its very difficult to survive as a homeowner today...this is a county that features very high property taxes relative to the national mean and even though I have no mortgage to pay it is a struggle. People at work ask me my goals...I tell them, "I'm just trying to get to tomorrow." you must be here in NJ - highest property taxes in the nation - well at least it snows sometimes http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/01/25/10-states-with-the-highest-property-taxes-in-ameri.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Maybe a little mix based off the 12z Euro for Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 you must be here in NJ - highest property taxes in the nation - well at least it snows sometimes http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/01/25/10-states-with-the-highest-property-taxes-in-ameri.aspx LI and Westchester are just as bad I'm sure but NY on the whole is less than NJ since the rest of the state is less than the NYC metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 1, 2014 Author Share Posted December 1, 2014 I can't wait for the new thread dedicated to flurries and sprinkles on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 At least were in meteorologist winter now and it's chilly. Today had a early fall to winter feeling. I love this type of weather. As long as it's not hot and humid! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Its very difficult to survive as a homeowner today...this is a county that features very high property taxes relative to the national mean and even though I have no mortgage to pay it is a struggle. People at work ask me my goals...I tell them, "I'm just trying to get to tomorrow." You able to take advantage of the state tax credit for using bio-blend heating oil? A neighbor recently told me about it, hadn't heard about it before. From the usage you posted you might be able to save a few hundred bucks...I looked around and the bio-blend doesn't seem to cost any more.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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