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Fall 2014 Banter Thread


IsentropicLift

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You need to chill now. Not every run is going to show a favorable solution. Are you new to weather? I advise you to make better posts because you don't want to get 5 posted or even banned. I have been 5 posted 3 times in the past.

jeez Anthony getting 5 posted on weather forum? the struggle is real! :lol:

 

teleconnect as long as you try and make intelligent posts with actual science or relevance you'll be fine. Seeing some of your post quality lately makes me believe you'll be up there on the hit list come ban hammer season

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"This is a thread-the-needle storm. Let's wait and see what happens."

The contents of the NYC subforum boiled down into one sentence. You can all go home now.

I think what it all comes down to is cold temperatures and the closer we get to December. The pattern matters a lot too. Also the NAO if it's not positive or negative maybe ? I believe Greenland to do something as well. And NWS.
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"This is a thread-the-needle storm. Let's wait and see what happens."

The contents of the NYC subforum boiled down into one sentence. You can all go home now.

Would you prefer to just start making bold calls at this stage instead? Or be level headed and "wait and see what happens" over the next couple days before making a call? Pretty sure you've seen alot worse posts in storm discussion threads than that.

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Would you prefer to just start making bold calls at this stage instead? Or be level headed and "wait and see what happens" over the next couple days before making a call? Pretty sure you've seen alot worse posts in storm discussion threads than that.

I just went into the New England thread and it's an astounding difference. They have a lot of Met participation and were talking about Jet Streaks and how they may come into play.

To Julian's point. It's miiiiles better than our discussion on this storm.

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Would you prefer to just start making bold calls at this stage instead? Or be level headed and "wait and see what happens" over the next couple days before making a call? Pretty sure you've seen alot worse posts in storm discussion threads than that.

I agree with the sentiment, but when the point gets rehashed over and over again ad nauseum, threads become unreadable.

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I just went into the New England thread and it's an astounding difference. They have a lot of Met participation and were talking about Jet Streaks and how they may come into play.

To Julian's point. It's miiiiles better than our discussion on this storm.

Agreed but its not like their is wishcasting or false statments being made here, if they're is banter its deleted ive been noticing

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Changing gears a bit, the GFS really goes to town with the upper Great Lakes low early next week, with surface pressures under 970 mb. That would be good for some new monthly SLP records in northern Michigan:

 

NovemberRecordLowSLPs.gif

 

 

That said, the HPC is effectively tossing the GFS on account of severe convective feedback issues, causing the model to overdeepen the low as much as 20 mb (compared to the NAM, ECMWF, and HPC surface progs).

 

It's interesting to me how the output of a model can be so compromised at such close range.

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That i agree with, and having more scientific posts within would certainly help its credibility. Didnt mean to attack you personally if i did julian

I think what would help with all of this is that if someone doesn't have a clear understanding at all as to why things happen with the weather and therefore how they can lead to different outcomes.....if they could simply word things as questions. It comes across in such a different way, allows people to learn and also gives knowledgeable Mets and hobbyists the cue to give answers. Many posts on here simply take up space and many of the posts by newbies or those without an understanding of the weather just trigger more useless posts by those criticizing them, rather than having it be a useful question and answer session.

Example :

instead of this : "this storm could go either way....it could wind up rain, it could wind up snow.....depends on where the low comes up the coast"

This could be posted : "what will be the factors that contribute to the way that the low comes up the coast ?"

That would not be a stupid question asked. It would be an attempt to learn something. This is where those with knowledge on the subject could chime in and contribute. Maybe this could somehow be enforced this winter? It can be applied to every forum and every thread that pertains to actual weather discussion (excluding banter threads of course)....to sum it up....if you are unsure of something or have something to say that doesn't contribute to the discussion.....put it in question form and make sure it pertains to the actual topic. A lot could be learned and a lot less bickering.

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I think what would help with all of this is that if someone doesn't have a clear understanding at all as to why things happen with the weather and therefore how they can lead to different outcomes.....if they could simply word things as questions. It comes across in such a different way, allows people to learn and also gives knowledgeable Mets and hobbyists the cue to give answers. Many posts on here simply take up space and many of the posts by newbies or those without an understanding of the weather just trigger more useless posts by those criticizing them, rather than having it be a useful question and answer session.

Example :

instead of this : "this storm could go either way....it could wind up rain, it could wind up snow.....depends on where the low comes up the coast"

This could be posted : "what will be the factors that contribute to the way that the low comes up the coast ?"

That would not be a stupid question asked. It would be an attempt to learn something. This is where those with knowledge on the subject could chime in and contribute. Maybe this could somehow be enforced this winter? It can be applied to every forum and every thread that pertains to actual weather discussion (excluding banter threads of course)....to sum it up....if you are unsure of something or have something to say that doesn't contribute to the discussion.....put it in question form and make sure it pertains to the actual topic. A lot could be learned and a lot less bickering.

I would say only certain people can start a thread and you are 5 posted until you reach a certain level or amount of posts. Too many newbies pop up every year that don't get how it works around here and just start posting willy nilly. It's only going to get worse as we get into winter and have more storms to track

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Guys, I'm all for snow and all, but I am personally not rooting for any accumulation more than 4" in NYC. If we get more than 4", then we will enter the lackluster winter analogs for overall snowfall since heavy November / October snowfalls correlate to mild winters.

 

I am more interested in the pattern for early December to see if it will remain stormy. If it is stormy with coastal storms, then we are looking good for the rest of December. It wouldn't matter if we entered a warmer period to start December so long as it does not get dry. In my view, we need to follow last December and November almost to the script if we want a good winter. So far, we are right on script with this November. View these links to see how amazingly similar they are:

 

November 2013:

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KNYC/2013/11/8/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA 

 

November 2014:

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KNYC/2014/11/8/MonthlyHistory.html#calendar 

 

 

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