Fall 2014 Banter Thread

[REDMK6GLI]

Accuweather extended forecast shows a white Christmas. Rejoice!

Pretty much guarantees another grinch storm then

[IsentropicLift]

Without going into much detail, the 12z Euro control run is on board with the possible pre Thanksgiving storm. Wet past job just inland, rain immediate coast.

[NEG NAO]

12Z Euro Ensembles show a below normal Thanksgiving Day

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2014111712/ecmwf-ens_z500a_sd_eus_11.png

[PB GFI]

This is posted in Banter for 2 reason . 1 . These maps have had issues in the past so please do not take literally and 2 . Its DAY 9 so definitely do not take literally .

 

But since this is weather all banter counts .

 

Happy Thanksgiving I hope .

[CIK62]

Pretty much guarantees another grinch storm the

One of Santa's reindeers could find the North Pole faster than an AWWeatherman!   Late last Oct. AW said no freezing temps here till Dec. 1 and there were 7 in Nov. including a sub 32 day!   Neg. EPO did them in.

[SnoSki14]

12Z Euro Ensembles show a below normal Thanksgiving Day

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2014111712/ecmwf-ens_z500a_sd_eus_11.png

Another case where the good pacific pattern makes up for the lack of blocking. It's likely why we won't see any prolonged torches and temperatures will skew below normal.

METS believe blocking begins developing first half of December so if that's true then we will have to wait until mid December for a snow event.

Could see a ton of frustrated people since both AO and will be positive for a while starting this weekend. The cutter also looks like it brings really warm temps ahead of it maybe even 70s yikes.

[Guest Pamela]

Does Buffalo normally see this much lake effect in November?

 

The mean annual snowfall at the airport is in the 90 - 95 inch range...its a low water content snow that melts fast, but melting is slowed up there by the fact that its almost always overcast due to winds off the lake.  Moreover, snow flurries & snow showers are around constantly...in January 1977, Buffalo saw snow falling on all 31 days of the month. 

To the southwest of Buffalo, the second snowiest part of NY state is found (the first being on the western slopes of the Adirondacks).  Chautauqua & Cattaraugus Counties...especially the elevated and strategically placed spots...will average at least 150 inches per year...and are really some of the most favored Lake Effect snow locales in the country...right up there with the Keweenaw Peninsula in the U.P. of Michigan. 

 

[PB GFI]

The mean annual snowfall at the airport is in the 90 - 95 inch range...its a low water content snow that melts fast, but melting is slowed up there by the fact that its almost always overcast due to winds off the lake.  Moreover, snow flurries & snow showers are around constantly...in January 1977, Buffalo saw snow falling on all 31 days of the month. 

To the southwest of Buffalo, the second snowiest part of NY state is found (the first being on the western slopes of the Adirondacks).  Chautauqua & Cattaraugus Counties...especially the elevated and strategically placed spots...will average at least 150 inches per year...and are really some of the most favored Lake Effect snow locales in the country...right up there with the Keweenaw Peninsula in the U.P. of Michigan.

Redfield NY is the king of the tug

[NEG NAO]

18Z GFS is similar to the Euro - snowstorm Thanksgiving Eve - one think to remember even in unfavorable patterns the good  timing can produce..........also I predicted the first inch at NYC November 27

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=11&model_

[Guest Pamela]

Redfield NY is the king of the tug

 

To the best of my knowledge, this is considered the snowiest non mountaintop station in the state...

 

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/site.php?station=HOKN6&network=NY_COOP

 

They picked up a healthy 466.9 inches of snow during the long winter of 1976-77.

[Eduardo]

They picked up a healthy 466.9 inches of snow during the long winter of 1976-77.

That is just plain obscene!!! I don't think I can even imagine that!

[Guest Pamela]

That is just plain obscene!!!

 

 

Well, I guess the station is aptly named then...lol.

[PB GFI]

Well, I guess the station is aptly named then...lol.

http://www.bing.com/maps/?v=2&c=en-US&ur=US&rtp=pos.43.5334587097168_-75.8213272094727_Redfield%2c+NY~pos.43.6917190551758_-75.7440185546875_Hooker%2c+NY&qpvt=how+far+is+hooker+ny+from+redfield+ny   

 

18 miles apart.  Would like to experience just one full winter up there .

[chietanen]

 

The mean annual snowfall at the airport is in the 90 - 95 inch range...its a low water content snow that melts fast, but melting is slowed up there by the fact that its almost always overcast due to winds off the lake.  Moreover, snow flurries & snow showers are around constantly...in January 1977, Buffalo saw snow falling on all 31 days of the month. 

To the southwest of Buffalo, the second snowiest part of NY state is found (the first being on the western slopes of the Adirondacks).  Chautauqua & Cattaraugus Counties...especially the elevated and strategically placed spots...will average at least 150 inches per year...and are really some of the most favored Lake Effect snow locales in the country...right up there with the Keweenaw Peninsula in the U.P. of Michigan. 

 

 

 

My mother lives in Mayville in Chautauqua County up on the ridge. The winters are incredible, far exceeding what Buffalo receives. I think they average over 200" per year and have had seasons of over 300". Pretty much continual snow cover from November through April in a typical winter. The one thing I will say is that the more extreme snowfall events off Lake Erie (in terms of strength, not duration) tend to favor Buffalo and it's Southtowns due to the prolonged stretch off of moisture available along Lake Erie when there is a SW flow.

 

Check out the radar tonight, already some convective elements showing up and reports of thunder and lightning in some of the immediate suburbs:

 

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=BUF-N0Q-1-6

[Nibor]

My mother lives in Mayville in Chautauqua County up on the ridge. The winters are incredible, far exceeding what Buffalo receives. I think they average over 200" per year and have had seasons of over 300". Pretty much continual snow cover from November through April in a typical winter. The one thing I will say is that the more extreme snowfall events off Lake Erie (in terms of strength, not duration) tend to favor Buffalo and it's Southtowns due to the prolonged stretch off of moisture available along Lake Erie when there is a SW flow.

Check out the radar tonight, already some convective elements showing up and reports of thunder and lightning in some of the immediate suburbs:

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=BUF-N0Q-1-6

My family owns a house in the chautauqua institution. I've been there several times around Christmas and the amount of snow is insane.

[Guest Pamela]

My mother lives in Mayville in Chautauqua County up on the ridge. The winters are incredible, far exceeding what Buffalo receives. I think they average over 200" per year and have had seasons of over 300". Pretty much continual snow cover from November through April in a typical winter. The one thing I will say is that the more extreme snowfall events off Lake Erie (in terms of strength, not duration) tend to favor Buffalo and it's Southtowns due to the prolonged stretch off of moisture available along Lake Erie when there is a SW flow.

 

Check out the radar tonight, already some convective elements showing up and reports of thunder and lightning in some of the immediate suburbs:

 

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=BUF-N0Q-1-6

 

If you think about it...those twin "C" counties might be the snowiest spot east of the Rockies and south of 43 N...save for a couple of the really high spots in West Virginia...and the summit of Mt. Greylock.

[Eduardo]

Well, I guess the station is aptly named then...lol.

 

[TeleConnectSnow]

18Z GFS is similar to the Euro - snowstorm Thanksgiving Eve - one think to remember even in unfavorable patterns the good  timing can produce..........also I predicted the first inch at NYC November 27

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=11&model_

Yeah, um no. since when is 2 inches a snowstorm ? weenie ALERT

[nzucker]

If you think about it...those twin "C" counties might be the snowiest spot east of the Rockies and south of 43 N...save for a couple of the really high spots in West Virginia...and the summit of Mt. Greylock.

Don't forget the Keeweenaw Peninsula in Michigan's UP.

[MJO812]

Yeah, um no. since when is 2 inches a snowstorm ? weenie ALERT

He is just saying that a storm is possible near Thanksgiving.

[snywx]

Yeah, um no. since when is 2 inches a snowstorm ? weenie ALERT

 

Where do they grow you?

[TonyLovesSnow]

Yeah, um no. since when is 2 inches a snowstorm ? weenie ALERT

I think it will be a bigger storm around Thanksgiving which would produce a lot more snow than 2 inches unless it's a rain to snow event. I would think once that pattern change happens by the upcoming holiday, it could trigger a few big systems! Bigger in terms of longer lasting storms. I still think we get an inch or two by DEC 1.

[TeleConnectSnow]

Where do they grow you?

mars

[Stormlover74]

Where do they grow you?

I literally LOL'd at that one

[TeleConnectSnow]

00z Para is all rain for the event now.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Don't forget the Keeweenaw Peninsula in Michigan's UP.

I think there and tug will do way better this winter as shallow lake Eire will freeze. Same thing happened in 77.

I'm not liking all this cold and lack of storms aka 77. Granted it's early but a winter of super cold and super suppression is basically my worst fear weather wise. Imagine an entire winter like last march! No thanks on that

[snywx]

I literally LOL'd at that one

 

Then you have this Tonylovesnow guy lol.. I don't know where to begin with him. Help?

[Rjay]

Then you have this Tonylovesnow guy lol.. I don't know where to begin with him. Help?

Lol it's just Ant's second account

[snywx]

I think it will be a bigger storm around Thanksgiving which would produce a lot more snow than 2 inches unless it's a rain to snow event. I would think once that pattern change happens by the upcoming holiday, it could trigger a few big systems! Bigger in terms of longer lasting storms. I still think we get an inch or two by DEC 1.

 

Atleast this is in Banter now..

[Juliancolton]

I think it will be a bigger storm around Thanksgiving which would produce a lot more snow than 2 inches unless it's a rain to snow event. I would think once that pattern change happens by the upcoming holiday, it could trigger a few big systems! Bigger in terms of longer lasting storms. I still think we get an inch or two by DEC 1.

A word to the wise: every time you want to post a prediction, first ask yourself "why" you believe it. If you can't come up with the flimsiest of meteorologically termed rationales for your forecast, perhaps you'd be better off just keeping a personal log and comparing verification rates from there.