Yanksfan Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 Careful with mentioning 03' and 96'. Although teleconnectors and stratospheric warming over E. siberia is promoting blocking come december still going to have to require correct phases and upstream blocking timed well to get EC cyclogenesis. Nothing is a layup and best not get too deep in talking about december until end of this month once the relaxation occurs Good point. As I mentioned on another weather forum, to have an epic winter you not only need a favorable pattern, you also need a lot of luck and timing too. That being said, I think this winter will produce. All the mets say so, even the conservative ones. Either this will be an epic winter or an epic bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 I don't think this will be a wash-rinse-repeat pattern. Models are hinting at stratospheric warming up in the polar regions which will enhance the polar intrusions and promote blocking by early to mid December. All the other teleconnections are already lined up not to mention an active southern jet. My gut tells me by mid December the latest we'll be rocking and rolling; and I think when all is said and done, this winter will rival '96 and '03. IMO nobody has the skill level to be able to predict accurately how severe or not severe a winter will be - that has been proven many times in the past - if you mentioned 03 - and 96 - last winter was worse then 03 but not as severe as 96 - a tall order to match either last year or 96 IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 The Tues streak to continue . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted November 15, 2014 Share Posted November 15, 2014 People often forget that in a lot of our major/historic winters, there is often a lot of wild swings. While there are similarities and sometimes analogs tossed out, every winter tends to write its own history and storms will disappoint/surprise. We've had perfect setups where storms just don't materialize and ones where storms just seemed to thread the needle and overperform using dynamics, despite setups not being anything more than marginal. I distinctly remember the 95-96 winter being interspersed with some mild spells and some washouts in between some of our major events as well as a few misses where we didn't get the big snows (went to the north). Even in 02-03 we had much of the same where I remember some of our first few snowfalls being washed away within a week or so. I think sometimes people's thinking even more-so than expectations tends to be hit with a bias based on recent events (history will repeat itself in similar fashion). 10-11 and 13-14 were really amazing for the non-stop parade of storms and significant ones at that as well as the hold of snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Where's Pazzo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Where's Pazzo? Probably went to Florida for the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Where's Pazzo? http://www.pazzopazzo.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 I want another boxing day redux and blizzard of 96. Measured 11.0" of snow for Boxing Day out here; pretty mediocre total...though the winds were exceptional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 The snow this morning in Montreal was wonderful. But I didn't bring any back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 http://www.northernchateau.com/northernchateau.htm Enjoy the pics coming of here this week . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 If I had a dollar for every time yanksfan said classic miller A look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 http://www.northernchateau.com/northernchateau.htm Enjoy the pics coming of here this week . They are gonna get crushed up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 If I had a dollar for every time yanksfan said classic miller A look If I had a quarter for every time you made a childish post I could retire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 If i had a dollar everytime someone mentioned a storm looking like 96' or 03' id be retired! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 They are gonna get crushed up there Watertown Tonight Snow showers before 1am, then a chance of snow showers between 1am and 3am, then snow showers likely with areas of blowing snow after 3am. Low around 23. Breezy, with a west wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 16 to 21 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Tuesday Snow with areas of blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 29. Breezy, with a southwest wind 21 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 14 to 20 inches possible. Not a bad way to start the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 Does Buffalo normally see this much lake effect in November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Does Buffalo normally see this much lake effect in November? No...but they do avg close to 100 inches a year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 No...but they do avg close to 100 inches a year http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Storm_%22Aphid%22 This one was real early . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 The radar looks impressive for this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 No...but they do avg close to 100 inches a year Buffalo's annual snow total is pretty front loaded (late November through January), once the lake freezes over (Erie is typically the first to freeze due to it's size and depth), their totals drop off some. Most of the memorable lake effect storms from when I lived there (21 years) happened in November and December. One of the lesser known facts about the infamous "Blizzard of 77" that occurred in Buffalo in late January that year is that only a small amount of new snow actually fell during the blizzard (estimated at around 12"), but it was such a cold and snowy winter that several feet of snow had accumulated on a frozen Lake Erie which was then deposited on Buffalo during the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Buffalo's annual snow total is pretty front loaded (late November through January), once the lake freezes over (Erie is typically the first to freeze due to it's size and depth), their totals drop off some. Most of the memorable lake effect storms from when I lived there (21 years) happened in November and December. One of the lesser known facts about the infamous "Blizzard of 77" that occurred in Buffalo in late January that year is that only a small amount of new snow actually fell during the blizzard (estimated at around 12"), but it was such a cold and snowy winter that several feet of snow had accumulated on a frozen Lake Erie which was then deposited on Buffalo during the storm. That's pretty interesting. Wonder how they could tell the new snow from the old snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 17, 2014 Author Share Posted November 17, 2014 It depends on the winter. Yes, the lake effect machine shuts off once the lakes freeze over, but if you get a storm track that either favors SWFE or apps cutters, they can get some good synoptic snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 That's pretty interesting. Wonder how they could tell the new snow from the old snow? Actually, I misspoke, the total snow was 12", "most of which was "believed to be from existing snow lying on the frozen surface of Lake Erie." http://www.wbuf.noaa.gov/bzpns.htm And, yes, there can be some hefty synoptic snows depending on storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 thought I would stick this in the banter thread so a pissing contest doesn't start in the main thread but Thanksgiving Eve looks interesting on the Euro http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014111712/ecmwf_T850_us_10.png those 2 LP's in Canada don't look right http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014111712/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_10.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 thought I would stick this in the banter thread so a pissing contest doesn't start in the main thread but Thanksgiving Eve looks interesting on the Euro http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014111712/ecmwf_T850_us_10.png those 2 LP's in Canada don't look right http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014111712/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_10.png That "L" over QC can hardly be called a low-pressure system... seems like a dodgy site algorithm instead of an issue with the model output. That said, environmental pressures throughout the region are low on those progs, so I don't see why there should be any red flags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Actually, I misspoke, the total snow was 12", "most of which was "believed to be from existing snow lying on the frozen surface of Lake Erie." http://www.wbuf.noaa.gov/bzpns.htm And, yes, there can be some hefty synoptic snows depending on storm track. Take your surplus of snow and stash it away until needed? I like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Does Buffalo normally see this much lake effect in November? Long-term average in Buffalo proper (i.e., the airport) is 8.1 for November, but the record is 45.6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Buffalo's annual snow total is pretty front loaded (late November through January), once the lake freezes over (Erie is typically the first to freeze due to it's size and depth), their totals drop off some. Most of the memorable lake effect storms from when I lived there (21 years) happened in November and December. One of the lesser known facts about the infamous "Blizzard of 77" that occurred in Buffalo in late January that year is that only a small amount of new snow actually fell during the blizzard (estimated at around 12"), but it was such a cold and snowy winter that several feet of snow had accumulated on a frozen Lake Erie which was then deposited on Buffalo during the storm. The pics are amazing. It literally blew most of the snow from Lake Erie into Buffalo and the surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 That's pretty interesting. Wonder how they could tell the new snow from the old snow? There's no way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Accuweather extended forecast shows a white Christmas. Rejoice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.