Allsnow Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Grass continues to grow... I will be mowing until tday at this rate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Grass continues to grow... I will be mowing until tday at this rate big deal, that's not all that unusual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 At 0Z its ensembles argues for RIDGE on the East Coast IMO . So I assume we open the month above normal . And different than what the GFS sees . At 12z it`s OP drops the trough into the East to open November . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 alot of model flip flopping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 That's the best thing I've seen all day! Congrats everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 That's the best thing I've seen all day! Congrats everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 That's the best thing I've seen all day! Congrats everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 big deal, that's not all that unusual Most years my grass is done growing after the first freeze in mid/late October. Only in the torch-fest years do I see minimal growth into early meteorological winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 big deal, that's not all that unusual Living in South Brooklyn, i'll have ti check the park to verify grass growth ... at least the green growing kind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 How does the EBOLA+ this October affect the February snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Living in South Brooklyn, i'll have ti check the park to verify grass growth ... at least the green growing kind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 How does the EBOLA+ this October affect the February snow? Please dont bring this ebola crap into the weather forum. Its bad enough my IG and FB feed is infected with that propaganda now that its in NY from a doctor who lacks health safely common sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 confidence still increasing ? http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KEWR Euro still has it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 24, 2014 Author Share Posted October 24, 2014 confidence still increasing ? http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KEWR It's right here on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 24, 2014 Author Share Posted October 24, 2014 The 12z GFS is already digging the energy a lot more this run over 06z. Low pressure forming over western NC day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 24, 2014 Author Share Posted October 24, 2014 Wet snow flurries well north and west very late Halloween night on the 12z GFS. Just a bit progressive and too slow to develop but I think this will eventually trend towards a significant storm. The 06z GEFS mean had a trough in the east day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Wonder if all the model flip-flopping is satellite related? SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 2331Z WED OCT 22 2014 NCEP IS NOW RECEIVING THE FOLLOWING NESDIS SATELLITE DATA FOR 00Z MODEL INGEST.. NPP - CRiS AND ATMS DATA GOES SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS GOES RADIANCES GOES SOUNDING PRODUCTS THE FOLLOWING DATA TYPES CONTINUE TO BE UNAVAILABLE FOR THE MODELS.. MODIS IR AND WV WINDS OMI OZONE DATA AIRS HYPERSPECTRAL SOUNDER DATA COSMIC GPS-RADIO OCCULTATION DATA NESDIS CONTINUES TO WORK ON RESTORING ALL THEIR SATELLITE DATA PRODUCTS.. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE THE EXACT IMPACT OF THE SATELLITE DATA OUTAGE ON NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.. BUT THE DEGRADATION OF THE MODELS INCREASES WITH AN EXTENDED OUTAGE.. SHRUELL/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Wonder if all the model flip-flopping is satellite related? SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 2331Z WED OCT 22 2014 NCEP IS NOW RECEIVING THE FOLLOWING NESDIS SATELLITE DATA FOR 00Z MODEL INGEST.. NPP - CRiS AND ATMS DATA GOES SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS GOES RADIANCES GOES SOUNDING PRODUCTS THE FOLLOWING DATA TYPES CONTINUE TO BE UNAVAILABLE FOR THE MODELS.. MODIS IR AND WV WINDS OMI OZONE DATA AIRS HYPERSPECTRAL SOUNDER DATA COSMIC GPS-RADIO OCCULTATION DATA NESDIS CONTINUES TO WORK ON RESTORING ALL THEIR SATELLITE DATA PRODUCTS.. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE THE EXACT IMPACT OF THE SATELLITE DATA OUTAGE ON NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.. BUT THE DEGRADATION OF THE MODELS INCREASES WITH AN EXTENDED OUTAGE.. SHRUELL/SDM/NCO/NCEP I don't see the flip-flopping day 7 on to be unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 I don't see the flip-flopping day 7 on to be unusual. It could just be a coincidence, but the 7-10 day has been seeing some pretty big swings this week. The Euro ens 500 mb chart usually doesn't fluctuate this much with trough and ridge positions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Gfs shows an interesting scenario for next weekend.Wxbell snowmap shows a little accumulation lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 The 0z Euro op shows deep cut-off low over Southeast for Nov 1. But it 0z Euro ensemble mean is not as extreme. Low is flatter and far offshore: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 6z GFS also now shows a storm for the 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 The 0z Euro op shows deep cut-off low over Southeast for Nov 1. But it 0z Euro ensemble mean is not as extreme. Low is flatter and far offshore: Frankly, the OP Euro looks ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Frankly, the OP Euro looks ridiculous. Both the GFS and Euro are showing a trough along the east coast next weekend - the details of where any storm system will develop are stll in question - what is interesting is snow cover is forecasted to increase dramatically in Canada next week as colder air shifts south towards the U.S. and if a storm does develop it will have some cold air to work with.......... http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=10&model_dd=25&model_init_hh=06&fhour=180¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Both the GFS and Euro are showing a trough along the east coast next weekend - the details of where any storm system will develop are stll in question - what is interesting is snow cover is forecasted to increase dramatically in Canada next week as colder air shifts south towards the U.S. and if a storm does develop it will have some cold air to work with.......... http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=10&model_dd=25&model_init_hh=06&fhour=180¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false My bet is on if this storm is the right position that still only the people in the highest elevations may see some accumulating snow. Regardless the dramatic increase in canadian snow cover is promising and may add us further as we head into december for all concerned in our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 ^That's what people also said for the November 2012 storm. 4Inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 My bet is on if this storm is the right position that still only the people in the highest elevations may see some accumulating snow. Regardless the dramatic increase in canadian snow cover is promising and may add us further as we head into december for all concerned in our area DT just posted something on this storm on his fb page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 DT just posted something on this storm on his fb page and look what he posted just 2 days ago - I am still not buying into the extreme solution for this potential storm because of the models posssible reaction to the missed satallite data.......plus the AO and NAO aren't exactly that favorable for an extreme solution - in fact that dramatic buildup of Canadian snowcover might be wrong too http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Over the past several years, we've found that the best way to look at situations and storms like this is "always highly unlikely, always very possible". In just 5 years, we've had several blizzards and huge "100-year" snowstorms, "100-year" flooding, an October snowstorm and a hurricane. Nothing is out of the realm of possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Over the past several years, we've found that the best way to look at situations and storms like this is "always highly unlikely, always very possible". In just 5 years, we've had several blizzards and huge "100-year" snowstorms, "100-year" flooding, an October snowstorm and a hurricane. Nothing is out of the realm of possibility Agree 100 % - Also I think we should wait till we are within 5 days of the possible event before we start showing intense interest in this storm especially since there is missing satallite data which could have an effect on the longer range model solutions - but I am sure someone here will try and make a new storm thread very soon In addition lets see if that increase in Canadian snow cover forecast verifies next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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