IsentropicLift Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 And so it begins... Soon girls will exchange tank tops, shorts and flip flops for hoodies, jeans and uggs. Flowers will die, leaves will change and the air will have a crispness that has been absent since the middle of May. Soon we will be tracking the first frost and before long the first real shot at snow. Let the model mayhem begin. So here is the 00z GFS at hour 384 which shows a raging ridge over the east. And here is the 06z GFS for the same period I wanted to post the 06z GFS because it's the first model run of the year with a shot of cool or downright cold weather moving in around September 12th. If it were to verify we would see highs in the 40's to near 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 Even if that came true. Highs would be in the 60's. Not even close to the 40's. Lows would be in the 40's though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 29, 2014 Author Share Posted August 29, 2014 Even if that came true. Highs would be in the 60's. Not even close to the 40's. Lows would be in the 40's though. The storm vista 2M maps show the 40 degree isotherm slapped across northern NJ at 18z on 9/13. I would post but I don't think that's allowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 Lol the complete opposite in one run but so what that's some 2 weeks out. The first half of September will bake and I don't know what the second half will be like but I know those positives will seal Septembers fate as above to perhaps well above normal. This is okay because I still view September as a summery month until the very end of it when we see more pronounced cool, crisp mornings, noticeable foliage, and a substantial loss in daylight. September is just like March where the first half to two thirds reflect summer and the end starts favoring fall much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 It's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 Lol the complete opposite in one run but so what that's some 2 weeks out. The first half of September will bake and I don't know what the second half will be like but I know those positives will seal Septembers fate as above to perhaps well above normal. This is okay because I still view September as a summery month until the very end of it when we see more pronounced cool, crisp mornings, noticeable foliage, and a substantial loss in daylight. September is just like March where the first half to two thirds reflect summer and the end starts favoring fall much more. A warm September like 2007 pushed the changing of the leaves back until mid November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 Oh please highs will not be in 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 29, 2014 Author Share Posted August 29, 2014 The 12z GFS kept the idea from 06z with a deep trough in the east as we move towards mid-month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 Oh please highs will not be in 40s I wish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 I wishhave you considered moving north? serious question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 1, 2014 Author Share Posted September 1, 2014 I wishI hear Hudson's Bay is beautiful this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7wbJNf6Wk8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 better late than never. hopefully winter is warm and snowless for more poetic justice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 better late than never. hopefully winter is warm and snowless for more poetic justice Too bad your super-nino call busted. Cold and snow incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 better late than never. hopefully winter is warm and snowless for more poetic justice I guess you should move south then? The whining here will be insufferable if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 it gets plenty hot here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 and the long term trend is warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 About time for Forky to prepare giving us some sense downplaying every snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 About time for Forky to prepare giving us some sense downplaying every snowstorm. He doesn't downplay every snowstorm. Sometimes he's even optimistic. I trust his opinion and forecast regarding winter weather because it's not influenced by snow goggles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 I just want to patrol naked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 it gets plenty hot here Yep...reminds me of that summer I spent In Khartoum...back when I was Ambassador for the Court of St. James to the Sudan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 and the long term trend is warmer Mmmmm.....Deep Ridged Hot Wings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 He doesn't downplay every snowstorm. Sometimes he's even optimistic. I trust his opinion and forecast regarding winter weather because it's not influenced by snow goggles. His calls last year were completely off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 His calls last year were completely off... No they weren't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 His calls last year were completely off... Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 No they weren't. Yep heh... well, seanick's opinion is probably based on sound verification records and eminent impartiality, I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Starting to look like the best part. It's more amplified on hour 96!! No, it's less amplified! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 heh... well, seanick's opinion is probably based on sound verification records and eminent impartiality, I'm sure. Funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Does anyone think that my input is worth any value at all? I feel that I'm not putting much read worthy posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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