CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Agree. The surface high has squeezed pretty far east in fact, it's not as though the low is trying to work its way right into the teeth of it. Yesterday at this time I was thinking the typical sharp latitudinal cut off somewhere in MA and slide east, now not so sure that's how it's going to play out. A couple NE -> SW oriented bands may be in play. Yeah, this isn't like your winter arctic high feeding down dewpoints below 0F. You have PWATS pushing near 2" in many spots. The logic of high pressure blocking this or keeping it south simply isn't correct. It's more a function of how the low sort of cuts off and then gets shunted east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Good luck to everyone and their forecasts. Suspect the 12z runs are going to disappoint some and elate others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Good luck to everyone and their forecasts. Suspect the 12z runs are going to disappoint some and elate others. Well only if you expect 2" up to Dendrite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Well only if you expect 2" up to Dendrite.It was interesting to see the 00z runs keep heaviest rains south of SNE after Bulls eye yesterday. It will be surprising if that trend doesn't continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 1.5" or bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Good luck to everyone and their forecasts. Suspect the 12z runs are going to disappoint some and elate others. Pretty much every run of every model disappoints some while elating others based on the existence of differing preferences and geographical locations. So basically, you suspect that what always happens, no matter what, will happen again. Brilliant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Models all have a good TROWAL and deformation zone making it past the pike. I find it hard to believe there would be nothing north of the pike with that look. Good theta-e advection at 850 and 700...that would probably mean steadier rains make it to Rt 2 it seems. At least as progged now. It's not your typical summertime convective blob driven by only low level convergence. It has some advective processes to help broaden the shield a bit. I suppose the 12z runs could crush it more south, but if they do..it's not because of high pressure, it's more a function of the trough north of Maine and having the mid level flow squeeze this south and east. I agree. The strong high pressure arguments are really weak. That trough north of Maine is also lifting out quickly on water vapor imagery this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 I agree. The strong high pressure arguments are really weak. That trough north of Maine is also lifting out quickly on water vapor imagery this morning. Well the feature that boots it ESE is something moving through eastern Canada overnight. That's what I was referring to in regards to how the system moves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 The 09z SREF mean has the 0.75"+ contour up to Providence while it was barely touching Newport at 03z. Another shift north by about 50 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Could be a Houlton Hotty of a day Saturday in places like Houlton ME and across NNE with over the top warmth. Maybe not hot, but you get the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 the sref looks wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Pretty paltry if correct http://bit.ly/1pcSGex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 May tickle 80°F here sat-sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 srefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 lol the 12z Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 How have the SREFs been lately? Any improvement since the model upgrades? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 12z nam is does not even get the precip up to Kevin............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 12z nam is does not even get the precip up to Kevin............... I like how it's further north with the low, but south with the precip. Like winter, gotta wait for the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 I like how it's further north with the low, but south with the precip. Like winter, gotta wait for the other models. Its just so comical to how unreliable it still is, A shame really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 First shot across the bow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 This was all I needed to see. The 4k version of the NAM remains stable while the 12k version is all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 First shot across the bow Well it's a NERF missile so nobody cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 the system looks pretty healthy to me right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Meanwhile Looks like 12z RGEM and the 12z GFS has shifted SE some from 06Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 24, 2014 Author Share Posted September 24, 2014 Well it's a NERF missile so nobody cares. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Nasty azz BD on the GFS Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 The one and only time we want a BD is early autumn ..They come without low clouds and fog..and typically end a torch..and you end up with 60 -65 by day and 40's at night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 One hell of a cold shot on the GFS op later in the period for the Plains. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Quite a ways out in time but it is impressive and could bring some snow to mtns in NE as that air mass slides east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Quite a ways out in time but it is impressive and could bring some snow to mtns in NE as that air mass slides east looks similar to last September in the Plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.