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September Discusssion--winter bound or bust

moneypitmike

By moneypitmike,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Models and weenies alike try to rush the cold air this time of year.

 

Be that as it may ...I'd say the former's doing a pretty good job of it as of late. 

 

Keene to Concord NH in Frost highlights for tonight are a solid 2 to 1 week ahead of schedule.  It's pervasive too, along with a-priori knowledge of the synoptics lending to, this is no accident chill, either. 

 

General reader:  What makes this particularly acute to folks' awareness is conditioning, imo.  We've come some 10 years of predominantly warmer than normal intervals.  A few cool ones here and there, of course, but they have been shorter in duration and/or amplitude by comparison -- the signal has been warmth spanning a decade and more actually.  That's just long enough to sort of mold a sense of seasonal entitlement (for lack of better words).  It is difficult to put this in quantifiable terms, but one engenders a kind of unconscious sensibility based upon that anomaly distribution, of where their weather should be; such that a frost before the climate norm becomes significantly more extreme in their perception, compared to a frost behind the climate norm.

 

A frost a week or two ahead of climate-derived schedule is, in its self, nothing too absurd. But serving as a caboose on a season that has been heavily tempered by so many cool incursions (in its self, odd to the perceptions -- case in point), has two aspects to me:

 

1)  It's pretty striking really.  In a more quantifiable sense, I have noticed also that the cryosphere monitoring has shown that the curve is leveling off over the arctic also a couple of weeks ahead of schedule. Also, the summer has been modestly above and below normal, which spark an argument that the journey was neutral, and so nothing much else can be said. But, I think that would be remarkably short-sighted.  Why, because everything in nature is taking place relative to something else. In other words, getting a neutral summer to take place amid a hardened 100+year elevating Global temperature curve should be telling ... if not heavily suggestive something is going on. All these intrigue the thinking individual -- is something afoot? Something is offsetting the warm baser climate with enough force to bring things back to normal. 

 

2)  The individual might just think this has been a very cold summer because of all, and that now we get a pervasive frost in keeping with that trend.  But no one asked this :)  just reflecting here.  

 

...I got to say, whatever the culprit is ... if there were ever a candidate for an early winter/ non-protracted autumn, trend alone and along would send one to that present conclusion.  We're going to see how this goes, but it's interesting that stepping back and looking at the teleconnectors, but the NAO has been predominated in the negative phase states since June 1st.  It is only recently that a robust positive phase has evolved -- yet, still unable to reflect on the structure of the circulation et al (such that any late warmth could result ...tho it did for perhaps a week.)  

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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Be that as it may ...I'd say the former's doing a pretty good job of it as of late. 

 

Keene to Concord NH in Frost highlights for tonight are a solid 2 to 1 week ahead of schedule.  It's pervasive too, along with a-priori knowledge of the synoptics lending to, this is no accident chill, either. 

 

Well first freeze median date at CON is about 10/1. So frost typically occurs sooner than that, historical average is about 9/15. So I would say we're right on schedule there.

 

But you're right, models have handled it well.

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weathafella

weathafella

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Nah.. In sun shorts and tee is perfect

Shorts will rarely be worn now outside of the odd warm spikes. And with temps here in the mid 50s.....I'll have a jacket which of course could be removed and stuffed in the little pack I carry around in my travels. The dog is extremely pleased at the coolness.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Well first freeze median date at CON is about 10/1. So frost typically occurs sooner than that, historical average is about 9/15. So I would say we're right on schedule there.

 

But you're right, models have handled it well.

 

Actually, I looked up frost, not freeze.  It's ahead regardless.

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

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I literally have nowhere to put it without being effected by a tree somewhere. I would have to mount a random pole in my front yard which would look completely dumb. I might just get an old fashioned gauge and stuck it in the ground there, but any windy storm may blow water off the trees into it. I may take down a tree in the next few years which will help. I'm going to get a Davis sometime in the next year or so hopefully.

 

Same problem.  I mounted one on a bamboo pole in the front yard and my wife is not pleased. lol

I had a Lowes gift certificate and used it to buy a cheap ($99) Accu-rite (accuwrong?) station.  It actually does a decent job with rainfall, wind and DP  when compared with the meso sites readings I check it against.  The history featues on it suck though and there is no software/pc hook up so I statrted writing my daily hi/lo's on the calendar.  Still nice to have the DP which precious few consumer stations have as a feature.

Someday a Davis will grace the lawn.  

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

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Freezing rain at the top of Stowe right now....a tenth of an inch of glaze so far.  Its more like freezing misery mist as Eek likes to call it.  A friend just sent this photo down from the top.  32F at the top, 41F at the office at the base. 

 

attachicon.gifice.jpg

 

Very nice!

 

You sound like a middle school girl. Just say sweatshirt/jacket/fleece.

 

 

LOL.  He could have specified color and whether it was a pull-over of zip-up one.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Curious where you got the info from. I used the climate record for CON and EEN and got 9/15 and 9/10 for average first date below 37.

 

I'm heavily into gardening and have multiple sources for that kind of thing.  

 

bet meh, we're talking beans in terms of dates inside of 10 days.  I'm willing to nod to the idea of it being pretty normal.

 

I added a lot more to the post; I think the impetus here (for me anyway) is that we could pull off any kind of frost this early (regardless of exact quantification) in the World we have, particularly when it is driven by a solid deep layer synotpic layout, and is resulting multi-state inclusion.  

 

Having said that, bye-bye gardens...

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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A real autumn type day. Jacket during the day in full sun. Just a reminder that it's coming!

actually pretty warm in the full sun at Sunday Funday coed softball in IJD, started out 8am this morning playing in long pants with under Armour under game shirt, ended up umpiring later in shorts tee shirt, at home now watching our Giant's get humiliated in shorts tee shirt. COC day
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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

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actually pretty warm in the full sun at Sunday Funday coed softball in IJD, started out 8am this morning playing in long pants with under Armour under game shirt, ended up umpiring later in shorts tee shirt, at home now watching our Giant's get humiliated in shorts tee shirt. COC day

 

COC it is--few months have many COC days as September.  Morning spent sizing/splitting.  Pats now.

 

59.8/46

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