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September Discusssion--winter bound or bust


moneypitmike

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Back to back temperature busts...I was wondering if afternoon temps of 48-52F on consecutive mid-September days was note-worthy because man this is a shock to the body. Our 24 hour high temp is 51F and it's settling again back into the upper 40s as rain starts.

Ginxy's favorite, record low maxes:

"Expecting temperatures to reach maximum readings this morning through midday west to east then to wetbulb down to 46-52 after the rain starts. After a temperature forecast bust and a few new record low maximum temperatures set yesterday as clouds held tough and busted our temperature forecast by 6-7 degrees. At btv we only reached 56, mpv 52, mss 54, 1v4 55. Record low maximums today are 52 at btv, 50 at mss, 54 at mpv, and 55 at St. J. It could be close."

 

Nice.  A bit warmer down here, of course.  High of 54.7.

 

54.1/52, rn-

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Nice.  A bit warmer down here, of course.  High of 54.7.

 

54.3/52, rn-

 

I am actually turning my heat on as we speak...just got home and the temperature inside is in the 50s.  Good grief.

 

Last week I ran the AC when we had a high of 86F (on September 5th or 6th) and the dewpoint was 70-72F... now we have back-to-back days with highs in the low 50s.

 

I can't think of any other time I would have run the Air Conditioner and the Heat within a 7 or 8 day period...gotta get the indoor temp back up to at least 60F.

 

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I am actually turning my heat on as we speak...just got home and the temperature inside is in the 50s.  Good grief.

 

Last week I ran the AC when we had a high of 86F (on September 5th or 6th) and the dewpoint was 70-72F... now we have back-to-back days with highs in the low 50s.

 

I can't think of any other time I would have run the Air Conditioner and the Heat within a 7 or 8 day period...gotta get the indoor temp back up to at least 60F.

 

attachicon.gifunnamed.jpg

 

61* inside the Pit (this is an all-season cold house).  Have put wood in the stove, but I've refrained from striking the match so far.

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Haha, yeah, how many days ago did you ask us about testing the heat? I didn't think we would need it this weekend but more next week. Seasons change fast I guess, lol. Not a fan of running the heat so early though...and may need it again at times next week.

seemed pretty likely to me, would not be surprised if the first picnic table flakes happen next week either.
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Rain moving in later. Nice overcast day...quiet nice home day.

Yep at work but looking forward to the fall, not taking care of the pool, haven't mowed in a month, just chillin sounds good, looking forward to rainy cool football Sundays with some dried soupressata sausage, provolone, Italian bread and a Blue Moon sounds great.

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Boundary Bald Mtn Jackman 3,683'

 

http://www.weatherlink.com/user/baldmountain/

 

 

Very nice!

 

Pretty decent slug of rain moving across all of New England.

 

I must have a leaf or something in my collection bucket.  I would expect more than .03" that is being recorded for the last 3 hours.

 

52.4/51

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I didn't look at any models or anything for this but I assume they couldn't have been depicting too far off from what the current mesoanalysis is showing.  Looking at mesoanalysis it's actually a pretty decent setup for a slug/swatch of widespread rains...whether they are light rains or embedded areas of moderate or even heavy rainfall.  

 

The area of low pressure to the NW of New England isn't particularly strong, however, it's associated with a pretty tight baroclinic zone and that's leading to some pretty decent lift itself right along the cold front.  There is also a decent amount of upper-level divergence present thanks to a fairly potent 100+ knot upper-level jet streak which is sliding through New York state towards New England.  You also have a pretty respectable mid-level jet overhead as well with a mid-level jet streak of what looks like 80-85 knots...not too bad!  

 

In the warm-sector, you have a decent low-level jet coming out of the south/southeast providing ample moisture as can be seen with PWAT values approaching and exceeding 1.5''.  This moisture coming off the Atlantic Ocean is working overhead into an area of enhanced lift.  

 

As stated earlier, we will begin to see systems like that become much more similar so we'll see rain chances increase.  As we move into and through the early fall season we will begin to see systems much more dynamically driven than thermodynamically driven which is what you want for widespread rain chances.  

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Haha, yeah, how many days ago did you ask us about testing the heat?  I didn't think we would need it this weekend but more next week.  Seasons change fast I guess, lol.  Not a fan of running the heat so early though...and may need it again at times next week.

 

It's really the low daytime highs and lack of sun that really cools the place down. My heat went on this morning too.

 

Pretty decent slug of rain moving across all of New England.

And a wicked squall going through western NY. Gusts to 44 mph at KFZY and 68mph at Syracuse!

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It's really the low daytime highs and lack of sun that really cools the place down. My heat went on this morning too.

And a wicked squall going through western NY. Gusts to 44 mph at KFZY and 68mph at Syracuse!

Nice obs out west!

And yes, the daytime temps are what's killing my inside temp...I've got sliding glass doors in three rooms that face south and west, so if the sun is out and curtains open, it heats up inside nicely. The thick stratus and temps in the 48-52 range is the killer.

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