Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

September Discusssion--winter bound or bust


moneypitmike

Recommended Posts

I see hints of this cool pattern attempting to change late month, but euro ensembles sort of squashes any attempt with lowering heights over the midwest sliding southeast towards the northeast us as the ridge in the west starts to rise once again.

 

GFS ens 6z has negative anom's over us pretty much until +15 days out too. 

 

Any hoo, I think we see a warm up around the beginning of October, probably pretty transient. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 2.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

The jury may still be out up in New England for Saturday night but closer down towards NYC looks rather wet. Tuesday looks very interesting on the Euro as a fairly amplified trough goes negative tilt and our first potential noreaster' of the season forms south of Long Island. Some weak phasing actually occurs between the disturbance coming out of the deep south and northern stream energy swinging through the lakes.

 

f144.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nyc south sure. In a dry , drought pattern why go wet ? Let's wait before calling for inches of rain to Montreal

We're undergoing a pattern change. Wave lengths are increasing, the northern stream jet is starting to drop further south. We're going to be talking about synoptic mesoscale systems rathern than pure convection which is always a crap shoot. At the temperature gradient increases over the next few weeks, model scores will improve thanks to baroclinic zones which are largely absent during the warm season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Around 0.40" of rain so far today...nice consistent 0.1"/hr soaking. Yesterday's runs of the WRF4 had some orographic enhancement in this area and it's 0.5" estimate looks like it'll be close. BTV getting downsloped with only 0.1".

 

You guys up north are getting the lion's share.

 

.04" here.

63.9/63.  It sure is cold inside the Pit.  Much cooler than outside.  Shawl's needed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...