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September Discusssion--winter bound or bust


moneypitmike

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Right around 7 am this morning, albany's radar displayed something that I've never seen before.

It was almost like the texas radar loop of bats at dusk. ... But at dawn.

I saved the loop on my phone as a bunch of individual screenshots. Any idea how to animate them to show here?

The scans were from 6-7:20am

post-700-141010289947.jpg

No clue if that worked or not.

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Euro keeps interior elevations in the upper 50's next Sunday and delivers frost to places like MRG land and probably OWD..Grandmothers start pulling out the reindeer sweaters

 

Maybe some BN to help erase the ridiculously warm start to the month.

 

Topped at 71.1 at the Pit

 

67.8/53 now.

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Ahhh the fall worries of getting the perfect pattern too early and then flipping to less desirable once December 1 rolls around.

Fall is the time of changing wavelengths and patterns. I haven't seen much correlation to the Sept-Oct pattern and winter here. At least not that I'm aware of. I know the Oct correlation to NAO seems to be inverse to that of winter...but not extremely significant. That may have to do more with periodicity.

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Fall is the time of changing wavelengths and patterns. I haven't seen much correlation to the Sept-Oct pattern and winter here. At least not that I'm aware of. I know the Oct correlation to NAO seems to be inverse to that of winter...but not extremely significant. That may have to do more with periodicity.

 

 

The numbers used to be pretty strong, but the correlation has been poor since 2009...I think like 4 of the 5 years its not been inverse since then. I think actually last year broke a 4 year streak of that making the current 4 out of 5.

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The numbers used to be pretty strong, but the correlation has been poor since 2009...I think like 4 of the 5 years its not been inverse since then. I think actually last year broke a 4 year streak of that making the current 4 out of 5.

 

I think you mentioned that last year too. We had quite the stretch of -NAO streaks during that time so perhaps it was just a function of that period of time being deeply negative for the most part. We sort of started to see that diminish in the Fall of 2011 at times.

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That makes my JJA precip of 115% a bit of an outlier, as MBY is in the 150-175% shade.  The 0.30" thru 1st week of Sept won't close the gap.  My surplus is all from July (7.9") as June/August were both a bit bn.  From August 15 on I've had 0.59" despite being in several FF warnings and numerous watches for "torrential rain" - no argument with that map, however, as the heavier stuff has certainly hit nearby.

 

Edit:  Farmington coop, six miles to my west, is 150% for JJA, exactly as shown on the map - they're on the border between the shades for 130-150 and 150-175.  Essentially the entire difference between the two locations was the tor-warning day of July 15, when they got 2.78" and I measured 0.11".  No map readable on a computer screen is going to be able to portray at that scale.

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We've already discussed that map has flaws. ISP had 13 inches of rain in 12 hours and ORH was 114% for JJA

 

 

It's a rough guide...not perfect on every point, particularly for the small area on LI that got the convective mesoscale jackpot in that August system. But it gets the idea across. It's been dry in the south and wet in the north.

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It's a rough guide...not perfect on every point, particularly for the small area on LI that got the convective mesoscale jackpot in that August system. But it gets the idea across. It's been dry in the south and wet in the north.

it's wrong in a lot of spots, they don't resolve summer convective hits or misses. They need to upgrade their software, GIS would be a start
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