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September Discusssion--winter bound or bust


moneypitmike

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love how some people spin a warm month... if sept was supposed to be hot it wouldn't be above average right now

you're the biggest spinner out there so don't throw stones if you live in a glass house. And big deal a warm week in summer with no record highs anywhere!  That's never happened before.

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Another day of 89.45 day to feed and enable the pretenders...

 

Did anyone see the never-gonna-happen-range operational Euro, with it's minus a billion standard deviation black hole in western Manitoba?! Zoinks...

 

Not sure why, but even the GFS is repeatedly throwing out these super curvilinear flow structure every other run or so.  And of course, the GGEM does that at ANY time... as in ALL the time.  The sun could f nova, and the GGEM would have a glacial invasion.   

 

There really is very little support from the teleconnectors for any of it though. The NAO is neutal and elevating until further notice.  The PNA is only modestly positive, with shortened wave length still ... offering up more N/S than anything.  The MJO remains weak, and in the wrong side of the Wheeler diagram .. .should be a warm signal if anything.

 

  Yet these operational models are relentlessly churning out ...  it has happened in the past where the operational versions agree and the ensemble members don't, and the ensembles start migrating in favor. We'll see.  

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Brutal out...aren't radiating at all. I'm used to seeing 10-20F fall off in the 2-3 hours around sunset...not today.

Still mid-70s at 830pm...BTV still low 80s! They are forecast to have a low in the 70s, with the average high being in the mid 70s this time of year.

That'll be wiped out by 5z tomorrow.

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Oh yeah. Doesn't look like that'll help those without AC tonight though haha.

BTV actually rose in temperature between 9-10pm...with 80F at 9p and now 81F at 10p. Good ol' south wind. Not many places in New England hover in the 80s at 10pm at night.

 

Pure excellence.

 

Burlington- 81

Highgate- 80

Middlebury- 80

 

Even Morrisville still at 78 and St. J at 75.

Mansfield at 66.

 

k2id4w.png

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Pure excellence.

Burlington- 81

Highgate- 80

Middlebury- 80

Even Morrisville still at 78 and St. J at 75.

Mansfield at 66.

Hottest night of the summer it seems. I've even folded and turned on the AC at home.

MVL rose from 77F to 78F last hour...that is very rare. We tend to cool of nicely and quickly. Like most days with a high in the 80s we'd already be mid-60s by now. The mountain valley natural air conditioning is broken tonight.

Heck even SLK is mid-70s at this time of night is almost unheard of.

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ART 83 :lol:

GTB 81

IZG 77

SLK 74

FVE 71

Everyone is in on the S flow tonight. 75.4/70.2 here.

Its even almost 80F still up at my office at 1,550ft...I can't remember really ever seeing that at 10:30pm even in the hottest stretches.

That front is already in western NY, so we won't be dropping at all probably until that moves through. The south flow should stay mixed I would assume as the front approaches.

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Its even almost 80F still up at my office at 1,550ft...I can't remember really ever seeing that at 10:30pm even in the hottest stretches.

That front is already in western NY, so we won't be dropping at all probably until that moves through. The south flow should stay mixed I would assume as the front approaches.

This was the warmest night in my recent memory...7/2011

 

METAR KBTV 220754Z 27008G15KT 10SM FEW060 29/22 A2968 RMK AO2 SLP927 T02940217

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