Hurricane Katrina Anniversary

[bdgwx]

That discussion probably still is the most frightening NWS product ever issued, the only thing that would come close is probably some of the texts before/during 4/27/11.

 

That AFD is definitely memorable. Some of the NHC discussions of the "Greek Hurricanes" from that year were classics as well.

 

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 21

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

10 AM EST SUN DEC 04 2005

AFTER A SLIGHT WEAKENING OVERNIGHT...MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES

INDICATE THAT EPSILON HAS RESTRENGTHENED. THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE

SYMMETRIC AND THE RING OF CONVECTION IS STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY.

T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND ON THIS

BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS. THERE ARE

NO CLEAR REASONS...AND I AM NOT GOING TO MAKE ONE UP...TO EXPLAIN

THE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF EPSILON AND I AM JUST DESCRIBING THE

FACTS. HOWEVER...I STILL HAVE TO MAKE AN INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE

BEST BET AT THIS TIME IS TO PREDICT WEAKENING DUE TO COLD WATER

...HIGH SHEAR AND DRY AIR.

EPSILON IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS...RUNNING AHEAD OF A STRONG

MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. BUT SOON...ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL

MODELS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE TRAPPED SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE

WHICH EVENTUALLY FORCE EPSILON SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD GUIDANCE AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS MOTION.

ALTHOUGH EPSILON WILL ENCOUNTER WARMER WATERS ONCE IT MOVES TOWARD

THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE

HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE AND EPSILON WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW. I

HEARD THAT BEFORE ABOUT EPSILON...HAVEN'T YOU?

FORECASTER AVILA

 

[SouthernWx2]

I'm not sure if this is the right place to ask or not but why was Camille not as damaging to the levee system given the landfall location and intensity? Guessing it had something to do with the size of the windfield?

 

 Camille was a much smaller hurricane (core region) than Katrina, and the area affected by 15+ foot storm tides was actually quite small....from near Clermont Harbor to Ocean Springs (about 30 miles).  Per the NHC report, Katrina produced 15' foot or higher storm tide from near New Orleans to near Dauphin Island, Alabama (over 100 miles).....with a 12-13' surge into Mobile Bay   

[Rjay]

Excellent point about the Biloxi/Gulfport/Waveland/St Louis Bay area of Mississippi. Along I-10 just E of the I-12 junction, I saw cars and home furnishings in tree tops as well as sizeable ocean going barges, large shrimp boats and tugs marooned well N of I-10. Mississippi to me did not receive the media coverage of the aftermath that the New Orleans area did because of the size of that media market. Many lives were lost in Waveland/St Louis Bay as well.

I'll never forget the pictures that came out of the Waveland/Bay St. Louis area after the storm passdd. The videos people took in Gulfport of the surge were beyond amazing/horrific as well.

[Rjay]

That AFD is definitely memorable. Some of the NHC discussions of the "Greek Hurricanes" from that year were classics as well.

That's a classic!

[icebreaker5221]

I remember Jim Cantore broadcasting from SE Florida and him saying it was the most intense Cat 1 he had ever experienced.

 

Probably a good time to post this footage from Mike Theiss of Katrina's FL landfall again.  Almost certainly the most intense looking footage I've seen of a cat 1.

 

[Kory]

Probably a good time to post this footage from Mike Theiss of Katrina's FL landfall again.  Almost certainly the most intense looking footage I've seen of a cat 1.

 

Those are some intense winds...I believe there was an official wind gust reported of 97 mph in Homestead, which is the highest recorded in Florida for Katrina.

 

But I do think people underestimate category 1 winds.  I've been through several hurricanes and it's shocking how much damage just sustained 75 to 80 mph winds will do over a few hours.  

[Sunny and Warm]

That discussion probably still is the most frightening NWS product ever issued, the only thing that would come close is probably some of the texts before/during 4/27/11.

Sandy had some dire warnings as well from Mount Holly.  Amazing that when you get these doomsday warnings, they've mostly come true.

[andyhb]

Sandy had some dire warnings as well from Mount Holly.  Amazing that when you get these doomsday warnings, they've mostly come true.

 

Well, they only issue such things when there is a very high certainty of a bad outcome, otherwise it wouldn't go over well.

 

As for my story, I remember watching the events unfolding live when I woke up on the day of landfall and I couldn't believe what I was seeing. Then I remembered that I had seen a documentary prior to it about a projected disaster should a strong cane make landfall in the New Orleans area (based on the events of Betsy 1965) and I had a really creepy feeling.

[Sunny and Warm]

Well, they only issue such things when there is a very high certainty of a bad outcome, otherwise it wouldn't go over well.

true but hurricanes and related damage can be fickle

[Rjay]

Well, they only issue such things when there is a very high certainty of a bad outcome, otherwise it wouldn't go over well.

As for my story, I remember watching the events unfolding live when I woke up on the day of landfall and I couldn't believe what I was seeing. Then I remembered that I had seen a documentary prior to it about a projected disaster should a strong cane make landfall in the New Orleans area (based on the events of Betsy 1965) and I had a really creepy feeling.

I was young but during Hurricane Gloria, the NHC made some extreme statements about people experiencing "conditions rarely seen in the 'area'". I remember watching a video clip with that statement going across the bottom of the screen. In fairness to the NHC, this was 1985 and they didn't have all the tools they have today...they had the storm at 130 mph (which it wasn't) as it was just off the NJ coast headed towards LI. They had it around 115 mph at landfall which has since been changed to 75 mph.

With that said, usually when they post these dire warnings they come true.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

I was young but during Hurricane Gloria, the NHC made some extreme statements about people experiencing "conditions rarely seen in the 'area'". I remember watching a video clip with that statement going across the bottom of the screen. In fairness to the NHC, this was 1985 and they didn't have all the tools they have today...they had the storm at 130 mph (which it wasn't) as it was just off the NJ coast headed towards LI. They had it around 115 mph at landfall which has since been changed to 75 mph.

With that said, usually when they post these dire warnings they come true.

It was for 8-12 foot storm surge for the south shore of li. In reality it was half that. Not even sandy was close to 8-12.

To clarify Gloria hit at a dead low tide and sandy dead high and full moon

Not trying to thread hijack I watched ever second of Katrina like glue. I experienced sandy to the upmost swimming through the surge. Nuts yes but Katrina was nuclear!

[Kory]

Here's a flood map with the water depths of New Orleans.  

 

[MJO812]

\

[jm1220]

It was for 8-12 foot storm surge for the south shore of li. In reality it was half that. Not even sandy was close to 8-12.

To clarify Gloria hit at a dead low tide and sandy dead high and full moon

Not trying to thread hijack I watched ever second of Katrina like glue. I experienced sandy to the upmost swimming through the surge. Nuts yes but Katrina was nuclear!

The value of the surge isn't affected by the tide level. The storm tide is the total water level-had Sandy's worst hit at low tide it likely would've been like Gloria.

 

And Sandy for most people on the open coast from western LI down to Atlantic City had about an 8 foot surge and in New York Harbor it was closer to 10 feet and in parts of LI Sound it was 12 feet, so 8-12 feet was the range in the worst affected areas.

[jm1220]

I don't know how it could've gotten any worse (perhaps wind wise).  Over 80% of New Orleans flooded and surge made it over 1 mile inland in Mississippi.  

 

If you ask me, a storm going just east of New Orleans is worst case scenario.  It pushes Lake Pontchartrain into the numerous drainage canals that open up to the Lake.  

I remember hearing in some documentaries that there was concern about Downtown and also the French Quarter being severely flooded as well by a strong enough surge. Those areas didn't take any water if I'm not mistaken.

 

I was on my way up to college for my sophomore year when Katrina struck-I remember listening to the radio in the car and hearing the stories of devastation taking place, and then the initial reports that New Orleans dodged a bullet and being relieved, and then hearing the later reports of multiple levee breaches and massive flooding. Katrina later hit PA where I was at the time as a pretty wimpy storm that gave us maybe 1" of rain.

 

Seeing the photos out of Gulfport/Biloxi etc of entire towns wiped off the map was just incredible. And I can sympathize with the devastation caused by a storm-my town is nowhere near the same after Sandy crushed us in 2012.

[Kory]

I remember hearing in some documentaries that there was concern about Downtown and also the French Quarter being severely flooded as well by a strong enough surge. Those areas didn't take any water if I'm not mistaken.

I was on my way up to college for my sophomore year when Katrina struck-I remember listening to the radio in the car and hearing the stories of devastation taking place, and then the initial reports that New Orleans dodged a bullet and being relieved, and then hearing the later reports of multiple levee breaches and massive flooding. Katrina later hit PA where I was at the time as a pretty wimpy storm that gave us maybe 1" of rain.

Seeing the photos out of Gulfport/Biloxi etc of entire towns wiped off the map was just incredible. And I can sympathize with the devastation caused by a storm-my town is nowhere near the same after Sandy crushed us in 2012.

Actually parts of Downtown New Orleans took on about 2-4 feet of water...especially around the Superdome. French Quarter and places along the river are actually the only part of the city that is above sea level, so it would take a heck of a storm surge to get the devastating flooding in the French Quarter.

[jm1220]

Actually parts of Downtown New Orleans took on about 2-4 feet of water...especially around the Superdome. French Quarter and places along the river are actually the only part of the city that is above sea level, so it would take a heck of a storm surge to get the devastating flooding in the French Quarter.

Ah-I knew the French Quarter was above sea level, but I was under the impression it was threatened by the Mississippi River right next to it. I know that's where most of the reporters went during the storm, and that's where a lot of the "dodged a bullet" reports came from after Katrina passed and that area wasn't heavily damaged.

[RCNYILWX]

I was in Key Largo FL for a family vacation when Katrina made its first landfall. About 3 feet of water, maybe more in spots, flooded the entire parking lot of the hotel, which is right along US-1. I went out during close to the height of the storm to move the car to higher ground, basically near the driveway ramp onto the road. Certainly would've been flooded had I not done that. My dad and brother found a submerged rowboat tied to a dock next to the hotel, and we used that to row our luggage to the car the next day. Overall the wind damage wasn't as bad down in the northern Keys as it was up in the Miami area, but there was still a fair amount of damage at the hotel.

[Ground Scouring]

In August of 2005 I was still in middle school, attending Eagle's Landing Middle just west of Boca Raton in Palm Beach County.

 

Katrina was the most traumatizing experience I've had before or since 9/11, a tragedy that I followed, live on television and in print, literally from the first images in the first few minutes of the North Tower's being struck. (I was in a special school at the time, which itself was a private hell in other ways I do not wish to describe.) Even though the worst of Katrina didn't affect me in South Florida, I vividly remember reading all the personal accounts from the Gulf Coast before, during, and especially after the storm. I followed the news coverage with intense interest for months following the storm. 2005 was the first hurricane season I covered seriously from beginning to end, in large part due to the 2004 slew of FL hits, one of which, Frances, forced me to evacuate abortively from Boca Raton. 2005 was by far the most memorable, gripping, and tragic season I've ever seen with such clarity and attentiveness, both of which Wilma sharpened by providing my first experience with hurricane-force winds and eye conditions.

 

I can (sadly) still remember people saying, almost in a disappointed fashion, that it was "only a Category 3" and therefore would only deliver Category-3 surge. How much did Katrina (and then Rita, Ike 2008, and Sandy 2012) teach us about how wind radii/fetch are often more important than intensity in regard to surge height and extent. Along with Ivan 2004, all of these TCs (in Sandy's case, an ex-TC) produced severe to catastrophic surge-related damage upon making landfall.

 

One of the least savory memories I have of Katrina is the often vicious cycle of personal anger/angst among survivors. Residents of NOLA and the MS Gulf Coast frequently engaged in heated, anger-laden debates that reflected their respective regional perspectives. Some Mississippians felt that their Republican-dominated, rural coastal areas were receiving less aid than NOLA, which was seen in some quarters as a case of lower-class, black, Democratic residents seeking more welfare/privileges than did more self-reliant residents farther east. Some NOLA residents then, in turn, blasted the MS homeless for being self-centered, insular, and uninformed. There was so much anger, stupidity, and viciousness--and, sadly, also much apathy and public neglect--on full display in the months following Katrina. The degree to which we as a country appeared a Third-World mess to the outside world--and how average Americans mostly neglected some of the affected areas--still saddens me to this day.

 

I will also not forget how such a predictable and inevitable disaster, both for NOLA and the MS/AL coasts, Katrina was. Study after study, and both human and scientific reason, clearly indicated that another 1947, Betsy 1965, or Camille 1969 was inevitable for the said regions, yet despite all the attention, governmental gridlock, lack of funding, and red tape prevented some areas--especially NOLA and southeastern LA) from undertaking the necessary coastal engineering and restoration projects to safeguard the region from storm surge. Had the MS River Gulf Outlet and other erosion-causing Army Corps projects been closed well before Katrina, the region might well have seen less of a severe impact from the surge. And of course the NOLA and other local levees (i.e., those of St. Bernard and Plaquemines parishes) were notoriously neglected in the decades before Katrina. Everyone knew that a Dutch-style system combined with coastal ecosystem restoration was needed.

 

Katrina also serves as a reminder of how vulnerable the Keys are to storm surge. So does Wilma. Had Wilma (in October 2005) passed just 10 n mi farther SE at its closest approach to Key West, much of the lower and middle Keys would have received a substantial surge, considering the size of the wind radii and RMW.

[BuffaloWeather]

Front page of reddit. Katrinas high water mark. http://imgur.com/VT6WMPs

 

[Absolute Humidity]

Sandy had some dire warnings as well from Mount Holly.  Amazing that when you get these doomsday warnings, they've mostly come true.

000

NOUS41 KPHI 281841

PNSPHI

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-

055-060>062-067>071-291200-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

241 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA...

SANDY IS EXPECTED TO SLAM INTO THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATER MONDAY

NIGHT, BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS TO THE REGION.

THE STORM IS A LARGE ONE, THEREFORE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER

OF THE STORM AS ALL AREAS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN HISTORIC STORM, WITH WIDESPREAD WIND

DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES, INLAND AND COASTAL FLOODING, AND MASSIVE

BEACH EROSION. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND PROLONGED WIND

WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING POWER OUTAGES AND SERIOUS

FLOODING.

PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO

WORSEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

SOME IMPORTANT NOTES...

1. IF YOU ARE BEING ASKED TO EVACUATE A COASTAL LOCATION BY STATE

AND LOCAL OFFICIALS, PLEASE DO SO.

2. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT TO EVACUATE, AND YOU KNOW SOMEONE WHO RODE

OUT THE `62 STORM ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS, ASK THEM IF THEY COULD DO

IT AGAIN.

3. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT, THINK ABOUT YOUR LOVED ONES, THINK ABOUT

THE EMERGENCY RESPONDERS WHO WILL BE UNABLE TO REACH YOU WHEN YOU

MAKE THE PANICKED PHONE CALL TO BE RESCUED, THINK ABOUT THE

RESCUE/RECOVERY TEAMS WHO WILL RESCUE YOU IF YOU ARE INJURED OR

RECOVER YOUR REMAINS IF YOU DO NOT SURVIVE.

4. SANDY IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. THERE WILL BE MAJOR

PROPERTY DAMAGE, INJURIES ARE PROBABLY UNAVOIDABLE, BUT THE GOAL IS

ZERO FATALITIES.

5. IF YOU THINK THE STORM IS OVER-HYPED AND EXAGGERATED, PLEASE ERR

ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.

WE WISH EVERYONE IN HARMS WAY ALL THE BEST. STAY SAFE!

$$

NWS MOUNT HOLLY, NJ

[gtg947h]

I don't remember much from the storm itself, being in Atlanta for college at the time, except that gas prices started spiking and I managed to get in and get some early before it went over $4/gallon.

 

What I remember a lot better is making two trips to affected areas to help clean up storm damage.  We went to Mobile in December, and New Orleans in March, to clean out and strip down flood-damaged houses.  We took out flooded drywall, insulation, cabinets, floors, etc. and got the houses down to the exterior walls, studs, and slab below where the flood water reached.  Nearly all of those houses had barely been touched since the search teams came through after the storm.  It stank--especially the refrigerators, which flooded, floated on their backs, then landed that way when the water receded.  If someone opened one up or leaked anything from one anywhere within a couple blocks' radius, you knew.  In some ways it was fun smashing out walls and sinks and toilets and all, but then you came across private items (photos, heirloom items, etc) and it brought you back down.

 

It was a very sobering experience, especially now that I live in a coastal area.