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Labor Day Weekend Heavy Rain/Severe Thread


IWXwx

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I figured it would happen this morning.  Thick clouds overhead right now. 

 

Still gotta clean the garage. >>Sigh<<

I can relate... the wife and I had to stain like 2000+ square feet of decking at her dad's cottage. It's finally done, but it took four of us breaking butt for two weeks. We didn't even get to go fishing or swimming while we were there. Back home now, we're going back next weekend to do the fishing and swimming thing.

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I wonder how often Marine Weather Statements are issued for "heavy rain showers..."

 

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1131 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

LCZ422-423-460-011630-
1131 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE WATERS...

THE AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE...

ST. CLAIR RIVER...
DETROIT RIVER...
LAKE ST. CLAIR...

AT 1128 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
AMBASSADOR BRIDGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS. THESE STORMS MAY
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AS
THEY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
GROSSE POINTE AROUND 1145 AM EDT.
ST CLAIR SHORES AROUND NOON EDT.
LAKE SAINT CLAIR METROPARK MARINA AROUND 1215 PM EDT.
MT CLEMENS HARBOR OF REFUGE AND ST CLAIR FLATS OLD CHANNEL LIGHT
AROUND 1220 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER
WAVES... LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK
SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

&&

LAT...LON 4261 8252 4256 8257 4255 8265 4237 8283
4231 8308 4239 8290 4246 8288 4249 8289
4256 8285 4258 8279 4262 8282 4266 8279
4270 8271 4269 8266 4267 8262 4263 8261
4261 8254 4263 8252 4284 8248 4276 8246

$

OROW
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And here we go...maybe...

 

mcd1655.gif

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1655
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 011616Z - 011745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
LOWER MI AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE IF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BECOMES
MORE CERTAIN.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL BANDS OF STRONGER CONVECTION HAVE RECENTLY
DEVELOPED ACROSS NRN LAKE MI AND WESTERN LOWER MI WITHIN A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING EWD. THE AIRMASS TO THE EAST OF THE
ONGOING STORMS HAS MOISTENED SUBSTANTIALLY THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINT TEMPS CLIMBING 1-2F PER HOUR SINCE AROUND 12Z. GENERALLY
WEAK/MOIST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT IN APX MORNING SOUNDING MAY
BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING...AS WELL AS
SURFACE HEATING TAKING PLACE AHEAD OF THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT FARTHER WEST. LIFT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
MODEST HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MID/UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

EXPECT RELATIVELY FAST-MOVING STORMS IN PERSISTENT CLUSTERS AND LINE
SEGMENTS SPREADING EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AT ABOUT
30-40KT. POCKETS OF STRONGER DCAPE OVER CENTRAL AND NRN
MI...INDICATED IN LATEST MESOANALYSIS DATA...COULD SUPPORT WIND
GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS. IF THIS TREND BEGINS TO APPEAR
ACROSS A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

..CARBIN/HART.. 09/01/2014


ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...

LAT...LON 46078586 46578590 46698442 45858344 44448331 43808342
43608372 43428419 43248461 43028522 42948597 43218635
43778593 44308590 45188579 45718580 46078586
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DTX update:

 

000
FXUS63 KDTX 011627
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1227 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...

MOST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN REMAINS SHROUDED IN LOW AND MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST TRENDS ON VISIBLE
INDICATE THAT THE STRATUS DECK HAS BEGUN TO EVOLVE TOWARD A
DIURNALLY FORCED CU FIELD. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S FROM WESTERN LOWER MI NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
THUMB WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN LOCKED IN AROUND 70 DEGREES.

THE STOUT 600MB CAP INDICATED ON THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING REMAINS THE
ONLY IMPEDANCE, ALBEIT A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT ONE, TO WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. CAP NOTWITHSTANDING, THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES ARE IMPRESSIVE. MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS STILL FAVORED
GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ALREADY PUSHING UPPER 70S AT NOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR FEATURING
VEERING THROUGH THE LOWEST 1.5KM AGL AND AFOREMENTIONED DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE OF
SUPERCELLS. ANY SUPERCELLS WILL CARRY TORNADIC POTENTIAL GIVEN
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR STRETCHING IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS, VEERED SFC-1KM WIND PROFILES, AND REASONABLY LOW LCLS OF
700-900M. UNIDIRECTIONAL MID-LEVEL WIND PROFILE AND PLENTY DRY AIR
WOULD THEN SUPPORT A QUICK EVOLUTION TOWARD DOWNDRAFT MODULATED
CONVECTION AND A CORRESPONDING EVOLUTION TOWARD DYNAMIC BOWS EARLY
IN THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE. GIVEN THE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS, THE LACK
OF MESOCYCLONE FORCING WITHIN BOWS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE THREAT
TO WIND ONLY.

IN SPITE OF THE RIPE ENVIRONMENT, CAPPING LOOMS LARGE. THE 12Z NAM12
ALLOWS ENCROACHING HEIGHT FALLS TO USHER IN SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL
COOLING SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG, DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME, THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE RAP IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER COOLING THE COLUMN AND LIMITS ANY
SEVERE THREAT TO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AREA WHERE MID-LEVEL
COOLING/FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE SOLUTION SPACE REMAINS WIDE
OPEN AND CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WX IS CORRESPONDINGLY LOW. AT THIS
POINT, EVEN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE IN QUESTION,
PARTICULARLY IF THE LATEST NON NAM GUIDANCE IS TO BE BELIEVED. IN
PURSUIT OF CLARITY, AN 18Z SOUNDING IS FORTHCOMING.
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First Severe T'Storm Warning issued:

 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
MIC055-079-011745-
/O.NEW.KAPX.SV.W.0020.140901T1657Z-140901T1745Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1257 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN GRAND TRAVERSE COUNTY IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
WESTERN KALKASKA COUNTY IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 145 PM EDT

* AT 1254 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HANNAH...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KALKASKA...KINGSLEY...SPIDER LAKE...FIFE LAKE...WILLIAMSBURG...
SOUTH BOARDMAN...BARKER CREEK...SHARON...RAPID CITY AND SIGMA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

THIS STORM HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF ROTATION. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY BECOME POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 4483 8536 4482 8533 4482 8532 4485 8532
4486 8530 4486 8516 4461 8498 4451 8534
4451 8563 4459 8565
TIME...MOT...LOC 1657Z 237DEG 33KT 4456 8556

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$

ARNOTT
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI

201 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

 

MIC009-079-011830-

/O.CON.KAPX.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-140901T1830Z/

ANTRIM MI-KALKASKA MI-

201 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

 

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN KALKASKA AND

SOUTHEASTERN ANTRIM COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

 

AT 158 PM EDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ANTRIM...AND

MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

 

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

 

SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

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mcd1656.gif

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1656
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 485...

VALID 011845Z - 012015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 485
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST-MOVING TSTMS
AND POSSIBLY BRIEF TORNADO CIRCULATIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MI...AND PERHAPS EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER PENINSULA. A NARROW SQUALL LINE WILL ALSO PROGRESS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL LOWER MI WITH AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT
DEVELOPING EAST INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MI THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...BROKEN PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES ASSOCIATED WITH BREAKS IN THE LINE HAVE EXHIBITED
OCCASIONAL STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS IN PARTS OF KALKASKA AND
CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN THE NRN LOWER PENINSULA. IN ADDITION TO
ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS...OTHER STRONGER
SEGMENTS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE COULD PRODUCE WINDS GUSTS TO
NEAR SEVERE LEVELS AS THE ENTIRE SQUALL LINE MOVES ACROSS THE REST
OF NORTHERN LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WEAKEN WITH SRN EXTENT
ACROSS SRN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...SUPPORTIVE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER TROUGH AND 50-60KT MID-LEVEL WIND
MAX EJECTING ACROSS LAKE MI ATTM...AND A MAXIMUM IN DIURNAL
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE. THE MOST ORGANIZED STRUCTURE WITHIN
THIS PORTION OF THE LINE WAS MOVING FROM NORTHWEST GRATIOT AND
EASTERN ISABELLA COUNTIES INTO MIDLAND COUNTY NOW. KMOP...MT.
PLEASANT ASOS...NEAR THE APEX OF THE SMALL-SCALE BOWING SEGMENT OF
CONVECTION...RECENTLY REPORTED A GUST NEAR 30KT. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CONVECTIVE LINE TO THE SOUTH APPEARS LESS ORGANIZED/INTENSE AND
A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED IF STORMS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
MARGINAL/TRANSIENT STRUCTURE WHERE DEEP SHEAR AND FORCING WEAKEN
WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT.

..CARBIN/HART.. 09/01/2014

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